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View Poll Results: What is your forecast for S&P 500 total return for 2016, including dividends
Positive, double digit (greater than 2208) 15 12.61%
Positive, single digit, greater than CPI (flat to 2082) 53 44.54%
Positive, but less than CPI (pretty much flat) 23 19.33%
Negative, single digit (greater than 1878) 20 16.81%
Negative, double digit (less than 1877) 8 6.72%
Voters: 119. You may not vote on this poll

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Poll: S&P 500 2016
Old 01-01-2016, 08:41 AM   #1
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Poll: S&P 500 2016

Forum members projection for the S&P 500 for 2016

Edit to add - I included some numbers. Assuming both CPI and the dividend rate are both 1.9%.

I think the S&P will increase more than CPI but single digit.
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Old 01-01-2016, 08:44 AM   #2
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I'll say it finishes the year at 1933.
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Old 01-01-2016, 08:47 AM   #3
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Sp500......2293
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Old 01-01-2016, 08:50 AM   #4
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Old 01-01-2016, 08:56 AM   #5
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I voted positive > CPI. However, I'm expecting CPI to be just 0-1.5% so not really expecting it to increase much. Maybe just 1-3% nominal or something.
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Old 01-01-2016, 09:17 AM   #6
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Ok, I'll play.

I'm expecting just a touch over 5% return S&P closing at 2155; however I expect it to hit a new high 2nd half after another pullback in late Q1 (which I think oil will play a big role in) but drop after elections as no one will be happy with the elections and claim "uncertainty".
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Old 01-01-2016, 09:25 AM   #7
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If there continues to be uncertainty in Europe and Asia, the US could be the safe harbor for foreign funds. I'm going with an 8% increase in the S&P to 2206.
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Old 01-01-2016, 10:42 AM   #8
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I think we are going sideways for another year.
S&P at 2080.
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Old 01-01-2016, 10:44 AM   #9
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Up a lot.
I love all the pessimism here about the future.
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Old 01-01-2016, 10:47 AM   #10
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I think it is going to be flat.
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Old 01-01-2016, 10:51 AM   #11
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Negative single digit...7 year bull run, rising interest rates, unicorn tech bubble...I feel like it's time to pay the piper...
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Old 01-01-2016, 11:09 AM   #12
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Poll: S&P 500 2016
Old 01-01-2016, 11:44 AM   #13
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Poll: S&P 500 2016

Quote:
Originally Posted by GravitySucks View Post
I think we are going sideways for another year.
S&P at 2080.

That is what I am thinking, but maybe with a few more wild rides up and down. Continued low long term interest rates will probably help provide a market underpinning of sorts.


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Old 01-01-2016, 11:47 AM   #14
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The only bet i would make is that every guess in here is wrong.


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Old 01-01-2016, 11:53 AM   #15
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I am more in the basically flat camp, but with more than typical volatility. Seems increased volatility is becoming the new norm. The election will certainly have an effect, if nothing else the Dem party in whitehouse will want to make numbers look good before the election. In the end approx 50% of people will not be happy with results.

I would like to have nice positive growth, but my feeling is kind of like this year, deja vu all over again.
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Old 01-01-2016, 12:29 PM   #16
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Old 01-01-2016, 12:47 PM   #17
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Quote:
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The only bet i would make is that every guess in here is wrong.


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Someone has to be right as we have all the bases covered....up, down, and sideways....


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Poll: S&P 500 2016
Old 01-01-2016, 12:55 PM   #18
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Poll: S&P 500 2016

1850 in 2016

Recession in 2017.
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Old 01-01-2016, 03:21 PM   #19
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Poll: S&P 500 2016

I'll play. 2016 for 2016. Haha. But I think there is a recession for 2017.


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Old 01-01-2016, 03:37 PM   #20
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I chose greater than CPI, but I was confused by the "flat to 2082" part. I am thinking 2200 which is more than 2082; it is single digit more than CPI but not double digit.
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