Poll: S&P 500 2016

[Lsbcal]

There was a crash in late 1987 but the market was up for the year.

 

[Moneygrubber]

I'll guess at 2175, purely a guess.


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[DrRoy]

2100

 

[chrisaukcam]

Yeah I am thinking single digits drop off. Housing is a positive in the economy. So that will keep things from falling too much. But commodity prices are dropping so that is showing not much demand. The economy just seems to be limping along. So after all the years of growth (pumping by the fed?), I think we are due for a downturn.

 

[Mulligan]

Yeah I am thinking single digits drop off. Housing is a positive in the economy. So that will keep things from falling too much. But commodity prices are dropping so that is showing not much demand. The economy just seems to be limping along. So after all the years of growth (pumping by the fed?), I think we are due for a downturn.

Chris, you forgot to put the word "weak" in front of growth. Since a recession is defined in periods of 2 consecutive quarters we could even possibly muddle along above zero and have modest "rolling sector" recessions instead of a collective one.


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[frayne]

Tough call but I went with pretty much flat. Just too much crap going on in the world to have a positive outlook on economic growth of any kind.

 

[diehard1997]

SP500 will finish at 2190


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[sengsational]

Average 2077. It was either this, or put away Christmas decorations:

 

[ChicagoGal]

Reading all of these guesstimates put Diana Ross in my head... "Upside down, Boy, you turn me, Inside out And round and round."

I'm going with mildly positive - 2120. For no good reason other than I want it to be positive, but don't want to set my expectations terribly high

 

[rodi]

I'll play! Or perhaps "guess" is a better word for it.

It's been a long time since we've had a good, solid crash with any significant impact, so why not now? I'll say 1650.

Looking at the first morning of trading of the new year... I sense a whee coming in the near future....

 

[easysurfer]

Yeah, dow down today over 400 pts as of this moment. But who's watching?

 

[W2R]

Looking at the first morning of trading of the new year... I sense a whee coming in the near future....

Well, I bought a house in cash last summer which involved a lot of selling in May, on my part. In retrospect, I am thinking that maybe that was sort of a wheee, in spirit anyway.

Yeah, dow down today over 400 pts as of this moment. But who's watching?

Wow!! That's amazing!!! I'm not upset (yet), but will reserve that for later.

As of Saturday, I didn't need to do any rebalancing because my annual spending money withdrawal accidently rebalanced everything (how cool is that? SO cool IMO).

But if this keeps up, who knows?

 

[hesperus]

I'll say S&P finishes @ 2010

too many headwinds for a gain in 2016.

 

[kgtest]

I was way off in 2015, I guessed too high using the past to dictate the guess. I was tricked into believing years before a presidential election the market has historically risen more than not.

Sooo, sticking with this data I will say we are still going to move ahead, but with some world market instability, it's not going to be a 15% year...I will go with a 8.5% year which puts my GUESS at

2170

 

[easysurfer]

Well, I bought a house in cash last summer which involved a lot of selling in May, on my part. In retrospect, I am thinking that maybe that was sort of a wheee, in spirit anyway.

Wow!! That's amazing!!! I'm not upset (yet), but will reserve that for later.

As of Saturday, I didn't need to do any rebalancing because my annual spending money withdrawal accidently rebalanced everything (how cool is that? SO cool IMO).

But if this keeps up, who knows?

I already initiated my rebalancing request on 1/1. No undos allowed .

But today is one of those days to run a dow tracker on the computer. Just for grins .

 

[W2R]

I already initiated my rebalancing request on 1/1. No undos allowed .

Now that you mention it, my withdrawal of my 2016 spending money (from Vanguard MM account) that I requested on the 1st technically will not take place for a few days. But I calculated my AA as though it was already done, on Saturday, and rebalancing wasn't needed. So to me that satisfies my yearly rebalancing requirement. I guess I was lucky this time.

 

[Dash man]

I predict a wild ride with the year seeing a bear market. I'll pick mostly individual stocks on sale rather than adding to funds for US. Undecided on what to do about international investments.

 

[ziggy29]

Up a lot.
I love all the pessimism here about the future.

Huh? As of now, only 22% said a negative return and only 5% said sharply lower. And 58% believe the market will exceed inflationary gains. Not sure how that qualifies as a lot of pessimism.

 

[Lsbcal]

Huh? As of now, only 22% said a negative return and only 5% said sharply lower. And 58% believe the market will exceed inflationary gains. Not sure how that qualifies as a lot of pessimism.

Well in my defense, the numbers have changed since I made that statement. Perhaps I encouraged all the optimists to step up and vote?

But really, can we interpret flat to single digit to be optimism? Single digit at the CPI is kind of pessimistic but if it's 9% I'm OK with calling it mildly optimistic. Oh for those 1990's returns.

 

[David1961]

2061. Purely a guess.

 

[nash031]

Clubber Lang comes to mind.

 

[GravitySucks]

S&P 500 closed out 2016 at 2238.83.
Were you close?

 

[W2R]

S&P 500 closed out 2016 at 2238.83.
Were you close?

Not in the slightest! I said it would be 1650. My crystal ball never did work worth a darn.

 

[kgtest]

Thanks for digging this back up again...i searched and searched but couldn't find this one in my history. I knew I was close but couldn't recall my pure luck of a guess which was 2170. I was within 1% not too shabby. Glad I was low at that number that means my 'planning' is intact for the future.

 

[audreyh1]

Did utrecht win (2293)? Where is he?