In general this discussion sounds a lot like the discussion constantly going on in my head, but it's nice to see validation of the two sides from different people/perspectives. Thanks again. The commitment is basically annual (large payouts at the year markers), so I will probably stick around for at least the first year and see where things stand at that time. But only so long as there is a reasonable balance between work and play, if work starts to encroach significantly then I will eject.
This is a big risk factor. I'm not assuming a big profit but I am assuming the value doesn't collapse in the next two years. Like most everyone else in our super HCOL area, our house is a large part of our balance sheet (still smaller than our portfolio value though, by half). My portfolio is positioned fairly defensively, but my housing situation is not. It would be a shame to collect the two more years at work only to have it largely offset by a housing collapse. Might make sense to start doing something about this sooner rather than later. Perhaps in the spring we'll make a move.
I think it's too risky to assume a profit from home sale without actually achieving it.
I recommend you sell the house now and lock-in your assumed selling price. If you get that value and actually buy a lower value home, then seriously consider retiring once you have invested profit from downsizing home.
How sure are you that the housing market in your area will not collapse in the next two years? If you are sure your house’s value will be maintained, stay and use the two years to throttle back, monitor expenses, and formulate a plan.
This is a big risk factor. I'm not assuming a big profit but I am assuming the value doesn't collapse in the next two years. Like most everyone else in our super HCOL area, our house is a large part of our balance sheet (still smaller than our portfolio value though, by half). My portfolio is positioned fairly defensively, but my housing situation is not. It would be a shame to collect the two more years at work only to have it largely offset by a housing collapse. Might make sense to start doing something about this sooner rather than later. Perhaps in the spring we'll make a move.