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View Poll Results: Did you change tactics in October?
Oh yeah, 100% cash, baby! 3 2.38%
No, sticking with my asset allocation plan! 82 65.08%
Minor tweaks. 18 14.29%
Major tweaks. 5 3.97%
Buying on dips! 14 11.11%
Rebalanced. 4 3.17%
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 04:45 PM   #21
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
So, you liked MOVI at 20, but you don't like it at 8? Man, it looks cheap to me now even if they slowly die (which I expect to happen eventually). I can't resist the value play. I'll just dip my toes in.
Open your mouth real wide, Wab, and try to catch that falling piano knife between your teeth...

You sound like Warren Buffett the day he bought World Book Encyclopedia (just before Microsoft released Encarta on CD) and Dexter Shoes (as everyone else moved production offshore).

Let's review the bidding here. I started piling into MOVI at $21.09 only two months ago. I stopped out at $18, hopped back in later, and got slammed up against the sell-stop wall a couple more times until I bailed for good at $11.15 two weeks ago. I've limited the heck out of my losses and learned even more from the experience, but I've also learned that these negative industry downturns can take a year or more to work through.

MOVI is indeed a bargain. The financials are "grrreeat". The technicals are some of the most oversold I've ever seen.

However the whole industry is being pummeled out of fear that people will be burning all their DVDs & videocassettes this winter to stay warm. MOVI may be a great bargain at $8, but they'll be an even greater bargain at $6. And if Moody's or S&P downgrade MOVI's bonds due to a negative industry outlook, they'll be an absolute steal at $4!

Do me a favor. When you load up your truck with MOVI ask your broker to ensure the shares are available to margin. I might want to borrow & short them for a while...
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 05:10 PM   #22
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Open your mouth real wide, Wab, and try to catch that falling piano knife between your teeth...
Hey, I am a master at catching falling knives. Mostly Japanese Ginsu knives.

Anyway, I'll buy any positive cashflow business at these multiples. I don't care if they're selling ice to Eskimos. Point me at them!
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 05:24 PM   #23
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
Anyway, I'll buy any positive cashflow business at these multiples.* *I don't care if they're selling ice to Eskimos.* *Point me at them!
Well, that's the point. TRAILING cashflow looked just great. I'm going to wait and see what it looks like in a few months.

I know you're buying now, but I suspect there'll still be a few sellers next year...

You want a couple other pointers? Cascade Microtech (CSCD), Dolby (DLB), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Overstock.com (OSTK), and perhaps even WebMD (WBMD). Deep value all. But again kindly ask your broker to make those available for margin!

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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 05:35 PM   #24
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Deep value all.* But again kindly ask your broker to make those available for margin!
Didn't see the same level of value in any of those, but thanks. My shares are in my margin account. Go crazy shorting them.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-14-2005, 12:14 PM   #25
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

I'm just glad my focus is on preserving my nest egg not making it. Making it in this environment is pretty tough.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-14-2005, 12:59 PM   #26
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

I'm not really changing plans at all, though my foreign exposure is increasing. This is really just a slow move towards what I think it should have been for some time. So really my strategy has been the same for years.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-20-2005, 09:24 PM   #27
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MRGALT2U
In spite of my musings about "one last big adventure", I have not
changed anything in some time now.* I did consider moving my IRA
back into all CDs, but the rates have to move up some more.

I did have an epiphany of sorts, which would amount to strategic
shift if I do it.

Currently I have a lot of borrowed CC money reinvested in liquid accounts.* I have posted details before.
Right now I am "underwater",
meaning I owe more than I have in the bank, which is what
the CC companies are hoping for when they give you the money.
Now, here's where it gets interesting (stay with me).* My
-0-% APR promo interest rates run until next May or June.
I qualify for SS and a reverse mortgage in September.* My
intention has been to take a short term loan (from somewhere)
to bridge the gap between the -0-% running out and the starting up of SS checks and the reverse mortgge, if I am still a little short
in the spring.* Yesterday I got yet another -0-% offer, but it's from
a CC I already maxed out when they offered me 1.99%.* Both
rates run until April, 06.* I was going to pay off the 1.99 money and take the -0-% (picks up some "walkin around money").
However, the new offer also
allows me to max. my credit
line at 3.99%
locked until the balance is paid off. Sooooooooooo,
now I'm thinkin' maybe I will take the 3.99% (locked rate
for ? years - unsecured debt).* The amount just about covers my shortfall, and until next June my OOP will be -0-
(there is a $65 fee to take the money) because I will have their money invested at the same rate I am paying out.
Then if I need
the "bridge loan" next year, it's already in place at 3.99%.
No muss No fuss.* Oh, BTW, I pay no income tax so no tax due on the interest I receive on the CC money.

Anyone see any flaws in this?

JG
I didn't get much feedback on this, but here is how I resolved it.
I am closing out my 3.50% MM account and moving all the money
to another local bank splitting the money between a 3.75% MM and a 4.25% CD for a 4 months.
The decision on taking the 3.99% money (good until paid off) is now
deferred until 11-30-05, the drop dead date on the offer. Also,
I may get more CC "deals" before 11-30 which could sweeten
this arrangement. Finally, three (3) of the five (5) cards I have maxed out and reinvested
are with the same company. I may be able to combine the credit lines
of all three (3) and use the new line to take the best deal of the 3.
Anyway, if nothing changes, I will pick up about $1200.00
on the spread by next May. Easy money.

JG
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-25-2005, 06:11 AM   #28
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MRGALT2U
I didn't get much feedback on* this, but here is how I resolved it.
I am closing out my 3.50% MM account and moving all the money
to another local bank splitting the money between a 3.75% MM and a 4.25% CD for a 4 months.
The decision on taking the 3.99% money (good until paid off) is now
deferred until 11-30-05, the drop dead date on the offer.* Also,
I may get more CC "deals" before 11-30 which could sweeten
this arrangement.* Finally,* three (3) of the five (5) cards I have maxed out and reinvested
are with the same company.* I may be able to combine the credit lines
of all three (3) and use the new line to take the best deal of the 3.
Anyway, if nothing changes, I will pick up about $1200.00
on the spread by next May.* Easy money.

JG
Postscript...............the keyboard was hardly cooled off from this
post when I got an offer in the mail from another card I was not
using. Cash advances or balance transfers @ -0- APR until March
with a max. $75 fee. I called and got the -0- % extended to
May and the rate cut to $29, just by asking. On top of that,
they offered to hold the -0-% until the balance (I took 100%
of the line) is paid off. Bottom line is that I have enough
CC "deals" in place to "bridge" us until I am 62, and in SS and
reverse mortgage territory. Oddly, I expected these offers to dry
up and they have not, as yet.

JG
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Movie industry update
Old 11-23-2005, 02:13 PM   #29
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Movie industry update

I've been following MOVI for the last few weeks, and this morning the stock popped 10% on news that they're giving away XBox 360s. (I thought it was an XBox with the purchase of each 100 shares but apparently it's a random drawing.) Oddly enough they claim the contest began two weeks ago-- a typo? Other than this week's momentum, the stock still basically, er, sucks-- lowered 4Q guidance, "temporary" suspension of the dividend, and cutting the workforce by 10%.

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
I believe there has been a fundamental change in the underlying business and the economy.* Given my new view (that the business is cratering and consumer spending is getting seriously pinched), its not cheap at 8.
Motley Fool, while not exactly a five-star analyst, has the same sentiments about Blockbuster. If theaters aren't doing so well and people are watching home media more than ever before, then where's the money? The answer appears to be Netflix plus DVD sales of old TV shows.

I wouldn't buy either of them this quarter or next quarter either. I wonder how Netflix is doing with their cash burn but I'm skeptical about their prospects too... it's interesting to watch the demise of the video-rental business that we all grew up with.

Maybe the vacant Blockbuster store leases will be picked up by Cartridge World franchises.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 11-23-2005, 02:51 PM   #30
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

We may all be biased here. We're rational. We plan ahead in detail. We don't mind delayed gratification.

Contrast those feelings and behavior with the other 95% of folks out there. Gimme it now! I don't wanna wait 2 days for a movie to come, I wanna watch it now! I want to watch a movie whenever the mood strikes, and I don't know if the mood will strike 2-3 days ahead of time... etc. etc. If it is Wednesday, how do I know what I want to watch on a Friday? What if I succumb to DW's desire to watch a drama, then on Friday I wanna see stuff get blown up? What if my boys call me up on Friday and want to watch the latest new release blockbuster on my 94" plasma flat screen super TV?

Just playing devil's advocate. I hate wasting time driving to/from the video store twice for a movie. My time is worth more than that, and assuming I wanted to pay for movies, I'd get netflix or the like (done it in the past). The other 95 % of folks out there don't value their time very highly, and don't feel like dealing with the "hassle" of maintaining a "wish list" of things to watch and paying a monthly fee.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 02-10-2006, 02:38 PM   #31
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
Anyway, I'll buy any positive cashflow business at these multiples.
Hey, Wab, I stumbled across a MOVI news release the other day and the stock is down yet ANOTHER 50%.

I never thought I'd see Blockbuster at $4 either.

Hmmm, 200 shares of MOVI or a new longboard...
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 02-10-2006, 02:55 PM   #32
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

I think I know which will be worth more in a year or two...

Wonder why wally mart hasnt gotten into instore video rentals yet. Or maybe they do and its just mine that isnt.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 02-10-2006, 03:03 PM   #33
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Hey, Wab, I stumbled across a MOVI news release the other day and the stock is down yet ANOTHER 50%.*
Ugh. My worst performing stock. It was just a couple hundred shares, but still no fun to look at that cost basis. I'm riding this one to the moon! (Or to zero, whichever comes first.)
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 02-10-2006, 08:21 PM   #34
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

I did not have that much luck playing with a penny stock. It was $0.7 two weeks ago and jumped to $1.94 last Wednesday. It declined to $1.55 a day later. I thought that was a good time to buy. Today it is $1.05.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 02-11-2006, 05:42 AM   #35
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

I never watch movies, but I screen stock charts everyday. If you get in MOVI @ 3.23, when it will be worth 1.62 you'll have lost 50% of your hard earned bucks... When unlisted, you'll have lost 100%. Falling knives are falling knives, nothing more to it.

Spanky, is your painful experience with CAMH.OB ?
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 02-11-2006, 08:26 AM   #36
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Yes, it was CAMH.OB.

Well, it's poised for a comeback after the much anticipated annoucement of CMS approval of its procedure for detection of sudden cardiac death.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 03-15-2006, 02:19 PM   #37
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Big spike up in MOVI today

Gonzo
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 03-15-2006, 02:35 PM   #38
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

I remember commenting on MOVI in another thread; dont see it here. I'm pretty sure it was before the majority of the MOVI disaster happened too.

My comment was this; Mail order dvd (ie: netflix) is definitly in (who i use), "rural" drive to the movie store (ie: movie gallery) is out. The other option, of course, is to just buy the movie via whomever you use, such as Direct TV, Dish Network, or your cable provider.

Driving to get your movies is so 20th century.

Azanon
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 03-15-2006, 07:44 PM   #39
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo
Big spike up in MOVI today
Gonzo
Yeah, I'll say. Down about 95% over the last few months but up about 29% yesterday.

How'd you do with catching that falling knife piano, Wab?
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 03-15-2006, 07:52 PM   #40
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by poyet
Spanky, is your painful experience with CAMH.OB ?
Anyway, I am happy again. Since then the stock has almost trippled.
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