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View Poll Results: Did you change tactics in October?
Oh yeah, 100% cash, baby! 3 2.38%
No, sticking with my asset allocation plan! 82 65.08%
Minor tweaks. 18 14.29%
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Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 12:50 AM   #1
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Poll: weak hands?

I'm getting vibes. Nords and Brewer out of individual stocks? People selling their houses and renting? Wow. Any other dramatic moves this month?

I sold some bonds and stocks, and plan to leave the procedes in cash for a little while. Nothing dramatic. Less than 5% of assets.

Looking at possibly picking up some beat-up issues. Brewer, any revised opinion on MOVI? It finally looks cheap to me.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 01:36 AM   #2
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Maybe it's easy for me to say with so little accumulated, but it's just blips on the radar. Intelligent asset allocator all the way! Nothing hurts your long term performance like selling in the face of adversity! Plus, I plan on staying in this house for a long, long time.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 06:05 AM   #3
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

In spite of my musings about "one last big adventure", I have not
changed anything in some time now. I did consider moving my IRA
back into all CDs, but the rates have to move up some more.

I did have an epiphany of sorts, which would amount to strategic
shift if I do it.

Currently I have a lot of borrowed CC money reinvested in liquid accounts. I have posted details before.
Right now I am "underwater",
meaning I owe more than I have in the bank, which is what
the CC companies are hoping for when they give you the money.
Now, here's where it gets interesting (stay with me). My
-0-% APR promo interest rates run until next May or June.
I qualify for SS and a reverse mortgage in September. My
intention has been to take a short term loan (from somewhere)
to bridge the gap between the -0-% running out and the starting up of SS checks and the reverse mortgge, if I am still a little short
in the spring. Yesterday I got yet another -0-% offer, but it's from
a CC I already maxed out when they offered me 1.99%. Both
rates run until April, 06. I was going to pay off the 1.99 money and take the -0-% (picks up some "walkin around money").
However, the new offer also
allows me to max. my credit
line at 3.99%
locked until the balance is paid off. Sooooooooooo,
now I'm thinkin' maybe I will take the 3.99% (locked rate
for ? years - unsecured debt). The amount just about covers my shortfall, and until next June my OOP will be -0-
(there is a $65 fee to take the money) because I will have their money invested at the same rate I am paying out.
Then if I need
the "bridge loan" next year, it's already in place at 3.99%.
No muss No fuss. Oh, BTW, I pay no income tax so no tax due on the interest I receive on the CC money.

Anyone see any flaws in this?

JG
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 06:56 AM   #4
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
I'm getting vibes.* *Nords and Brewer out of individual stocks?* *People selling their houses and renting?* *Wow.* *Any other dramatic moves this month?

I sold some bonds and stocks, and plan to leave the procedes in cash for a little while.* *Nothing dramatic.* Less than 5% of assets.

Looking at possibly picking up some beat-up issues.* *Brewer, any revised opinion on MOVI?* *It finally looks cheap to me.
Nope, I am still in individual stocks. I did recently sell a bunch of stuff that is vulnerable to downturns in consumer spending (incuding MOVI, BTW), and I put on a short position and bought puts on a few different stocks. I also sold something I have owned for a few years (NLS) and bought a longer dated call option on the same name. I think they will do really well, but if it raters my downside is limited. Still looking for more shorts and puts, although I did recently buy an individual stock.

I think we are heading into a really ugly winter. Consumer discretionary spending is going to be hurt by rising fuel costs and inflation appears to be spreading into a bunch of other categories of goods and services. All that floating rate debt will also continue to adjust upwards as rates continues to rise, which will put further pressure on consumer spending. At the same time, the Fed is not going to stop raising rates for the forseeable future because of inflation, so that ups the risk of recession.

I am probably going to add to my GIM position today. Decent yield, a fat discount to NAV, and essentially no credit risk. Also would be a preserver of value of the USD takes a nasty beating.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 07:23 AM   #5
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

I don't own individual stocks, but I do own a few stock mutual funds.

Late last year, some folks on this forum were predicting that the market would move sidewards or downwards in 2005. I agreed and so I moved some money out of US mutual funds and into I-Bonds and CDs early enough to significantly reduce the impact of the market on my net worth.

Edited to add: I also bought a few more shares of international and European stock mutual funds.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 07:42 AM   #6
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Hmmmm

I plan to actively hurry up and just stand there.

Of course if there is a lot of snow this winter - may putz with a few hobby stocks - then again - I now have an unfinished basement begging for ' a new hobby.'

Heh heh heh heh
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 08:50 AM   #7
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

I sold about 75% of my energy holdings earlier this month.* Plan to get back in as soon as the dust settles a bit.
Have bought some foreign funds for DW portfolio.
Buying a few stocks for covered call action as the premiums are coming back some.* I've mentioned NDAQ and ENG on other threads.* The other stock I purchased lately is ABP.* All generated good call premiums.
Also looking to get back into the Q's again soon.
Expecting a good finish to 2005.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 08:54 AM   #8
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

This environment looks pretty unfavorable to me so by October I had lowered my stock mutual fund allocation to about 25%. The rest mostly in short term interest bearing stuff.
So far this has been a good move but we shall see...I'm also a little nervous about real estate and will be happier after we down size next year. Pre-ER jitters.

Should a perfect storm occur I would be happy to begin scaling back in again.

Confessions of a DMT
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 08:55 AM   #9
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

I recently shifted some IRA money from domestic small cap funds to international equity index fund. Just a minor tweak.

Grumpy
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 09:00 AM   #10
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by unclemick2
Hmmmm

I plan to actively hurry up and just stand there.

Heh heh heh heh
Me too!! Always follow the guy who just survived a hurricane.* After all, he's been underwater so he knows how to get out.
Heh! heh! heh!
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 10:06 AM   #11
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

No significant change. I am concerned with the overall economic climate and our ability to handle the deficits/war/disasters/etc.

Didn't someone once say that gains are made climbing a wall of worry, or something like that?

That's why I follow the asset allocation model. Don't know the future.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 11:04 AM   #12
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

No changes here.
Our short to mid term money is about 30% stocks, long term money (10yrs+) is about 70% stocks.

Can someone give me a few months notice before the housing market crashes ?

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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 11:37 AM   #13
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Come to think of it, the fact that you came up with this poll might be a first indicator that this market sell off is nearing an end.
But alas, I did not hear any real tales of woe and fear in the above answers, which makes me think we've got more pain ahead.*

Perhaps a poll such as:
Have You Started Eating Cat food Yet??* will mark the end.* :
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 11:57 AM   #14
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JPatrick
Come to think of it, the fact that you came up with this poll might be a first indicator that this market sell off is nearing an end.
That's the problem with frequent trading. Everything starts to look like an economic indicator.

Stocks still look pretty fairly valued to me given where interest rates are. But I don't get why longer-term interest rates are still so low, and why nominal bonds don't seem to have any inflation priced in. If interest rates spike, that's when I would really start to worry about other asset valuations.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 12:06 PM   #15
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
I did recently sell a bunch of stuff that is vulnerable to downturns in consumer spending (incuding MOVI, BTW)
So, you liked MOVI at 20, but you don't like it at 8? Man, it looks cheap to me now even if they slowly die (which I expect to happen eventually). I can't resist the value play. I'll just dip my toes in.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 12:16 PM   #16
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
So, you liked MOVI at 20, but you don't like it at 8?* *Man, it looks cheap to me now even if they slowly die (which I expect to happen eventually).* *I can't resist the value play.* *I'll just dip my toes in.*
Ah, but I believe there has been a fundamental change in the underlying business and the economy. Given my new view (that the business is cratering and consumer spending is getting seriously pinched), its not cheap at 8. If they show some evidence of a turnaround and consumer spending holds up through the winter, maybe I will be interested. In the meantime, negative 10% SSS when you just piled on a ton of leverage is not a recipe for a happy outcome.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 12:40 PM   #17
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Given my new view (that the business is cratering and consumer spending is getting seriously pinched), its not cheap at 8.* If they show some evidence of a turnaround and consumer spending holds up through the winter, maybe I will be interested.* In the meantime, negative 10% SSS when you just piled on a ton of leverage is not a recipe for a happy outcome.
Hmm, that's what makes this a classic value play to me. The debt and decline in revenue is clearly priced in. That's why they have a forward P/E of 4, price/book of 0.74, and price/sales of 0.22. So, I'm simply betting that an improvement is more likely than BK, short-term. Economic slowdowns are good for escapism. So is cold weather. I'm rolling the dice! With 200 shares
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 12:47 PM   #18
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
So, you liked MOVI at 20, but you don't like it at 8?* *Man, it looks cheap to me now even if they slowly die (which I expect to happen eventually).* *I can't resist the value play.* *I'll just dip my toes in.*
I think your toes would be better served dipping into some ABP @ $6.95.

Hurry now, these prices won't last!!!
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 12:50 PM   #19
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
Hmm, that's what makes this a classic value play to me.* *The debt and decline in revenue is clearly priced in.* *That's why they have a forward P/E of 4, price/book of 0.74, and price/sales of 0.22.* * *So, I'm simply betting that an improvement is more likely than BK, short-term.* * Economic slowdowns are good for escapism.* *So is cold weather.* *I'm rolling the dice!* With 200 shares
Hmmm, I would be right there with you if they weren't leveraged up the gazoo. I am willing to be very contrarian on a business in a temporary slowdown as long as I am sure that they won't actually go BK. Unfortunately, I am not sure that is the case with MOVI any more.
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Re: Poll: weak hands?
Old 10-13-2005, 02:30 PM   #20
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Re: Poll: weak hands?

Quarterly statements are starting to roll in. I browse the bottom line, wince, and then stick them in their folder. Only fund that is "up" seems to be the 'International' fund. Not too worried at this point.
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