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As the DOW approaches an all-time high, I'd say we're at the dive point.
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I'm with Nords--since early 2003 was the most recent Market Bottom, and we're been through Commodities Up and Bonds Down. (It's 2pm--do you know where your portfolio is?)
Does it always work like this circular chart sez--do industries rise where they show them--in the order shown, bonds-down follows on the heels of commodities-up, etc?
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 11,331
Re: Poll: What time is it?
I don't pay much attention to cycles so I can't remember what all has happened. But didn't I read people here talking about commodities being down recently? If so, and if bonds have been coming up with the interest rates are we more like about 7 PM (last Spring would be the market low on a shorter cycle in taht case).
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As the DOW approaches an all-time high, I'd say we're at the dive point.
So let me get this straight. 6 years ago the market was higher than it is right now. - So, the the DOW has basically gone nowhere for 6 years, and you think it's ready for a dive.
This might be because you spent a little too much time in a Submarine. The only thing a sub can do is Dive.
I've been biting my tongue but I just can't hold it in any longer.* In reference to the original question, "Does anybody really know what time it is?"
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Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
So let me get this straight. 6 years ago the market was higher than it is right now. - So, the the DOW has basically gone nowhere for 6 years, and you think it's ready for a dive.
This might be because you spent a little too much time in a Submarine. The only thing a sub can do is Dive.
Well, that's one way to explain it.
Another perspective might be that the DOW has returned to the same excessive valuations of 2000 without significantly improving the fundamentals-- except for a few notable bankruptcies & pensions shoved off to the PBGC.* I'm not expecting another NASDAQ meltdown or DOW 7900 again, but I'm not expecting DOW 12,000 either.* From your perspective it could be 1982 again, but from mine it could be 1972.* I'm pretty sure, however, that when our portfolio goes screaming up for a few months like this that it's about time for the trend to bend a little.
Whichever way the market goes we're leaving the retirement portfolio at 94% stocks, 6% cash.* (I'm willing to put the back half of the second year's SWR at risk for a few more months.)* We've been pretty well rewarded in the indexes and especially well for the last couple stock-picker's years.* If we get back near our cost basis-- nearly a 20% drop-- then maybe I'd start sniffing around for a few bargains.
I won't argue with the phrase "too much time in a submarine", but with only two tours I'm regarded as somewhat of a sea-duty lightweight at "just" five years of it. (Gosh, I've forgotten the actual number and might have to go look it up!) I've known submarine E-9s with more than 10 years underwater and surface warfare officers with over 16 years of sea duty in a 26-year career!
Submariners work very hard to keep the number of dives equal to the number of surfaces...
__________________ *
Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."
I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
Whichever way the market goes we're leaving the retirement portfolio at 94% stocks, 6% cash. I've known submarine E-9s with more than 10 years underwater and surface warfare officers with over 16 years of sea duty in a 26-year career!
Submariners work very hard to keep the number of dives equal to the number of surfaces...
You're just superstitious - You've put your money in stocks. You're just hedging your bets. You'll be right either way!
Who told you that Alaska is the place to go for that career?!?
__________________ *
Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."
I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
There's always the possibility that it's really different this time, and the old model doesn't hold.
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a whole host of puzzling economic developments, such as the record share of profits in national income, sluggish growth in real wages, high oil prices alongside low inflation, low global interest rates and America's vast current-account deficit.
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