Originally Posted by Dwhit
I am optimistic, based on what I have read and heard about cheap energy (natural gas) making it practical for manufacturing to move back towards the US. Not sure what to make of what looks like trends towards deflation despite a lot of money creation, but I am hoping that's a good thing as well.
I am also optimistic, and what you mention is but one of the reasons. There is a lot of pro and con about the idea of "American Exceptionalism." But IMO to a great degree a lot of it is true.
Everything is relative, and that goes for companies, countries, and abilities. And as far as demographics, natural resources, immigration, diversity, freedom, political stability, and other factors from having the top universities, to having the best system of venture capital funding, the US still leads. I see all of the left/right struggles in DC as a good thing rather than bad, keeps our country struggling somewhere in the middle, not too far right or too far left like occurs elsewhere in the world.
Kind of like the old saying, attributed to various people, goes something like:
"A non democratic government is like a clipper ship, can move fast, but when it hits a rock it sinks. Democracy on the other hand, is more like a raft. It never sinks but then your feet are always wet."
A lot of people worry about China. Having worked in China, I think this is much more like our fear of the Soviet Union in the 60's. Remember hearing how many more engineers Russia was turning out than the US? We hear the same thing about the Chinese now. There are some bright people there, but they are still shackled by the Mao legacy and corruption, and it will be a long time growing out of these. Many of these Chinese engineers seem to be more like technicians or less.
To me there seems to be no lack of novelty in American society, where it will lead who knows. Social media, 3D printing, genetics, civil rights, mfg revival, a free thinking youth, on and on.
For certain the American share of the world pie will continue to shrink, couldn't be any other way, it has been declining since the end of WWII. I remember reading when I was a kid we had something like 80-90% of the worlds phones, cars, refrigerators, etc. But the pie will get bigger and I would not be surprised if much of the innovation that grows it comes from America. A smaller relative part of the pie is not the same as an American decline.
A lot of countries and individuals have bet against the US in the past and have been proven wrong. I think those that do now will be proven wrong again.
All this translates IMO into the expectation of reasonably good future returns.
Just my opinion, and anything can happen, time will tell.