Join Early Retirement Today
View Poll Results: How will the US economy likely do in the next 10 to 15 or 20 years?
Better than the average of the 20th century 14 9.52%
About the same as the average of the 20th Century 53 36.05%
Worse than the average of the 20th, but still OK 65 44.22%
Much worse than the average of the 20th Century 11 7.48%
I'm moving to mars as soon as transportation is available 4 2.72%
Voters: 147. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Poll:Where is the US economy headed in the next 10-15 years?
Old 12-22-2013, 07:34 PM   #1
Full time employment: Posting here.
CaliforniaMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: San Diego
Posts: 846
Poll:Where is the US economy headed in the next 10-15 years?

A big part of what we will be able to withdraw from our portfolio will be based on the big unknown of the future US economy.

We can all probably agree that the 20th century was a relatively good one for the US compared to the other developed countries of the world. In spite of two world wars, the great depression, and all the other struggles during that century, the US came out pretty well, and many would say on top.

Now we are into the second decade of a new century, and my question is what general direction do you think the US economy is headed long term, or at least over say over the next 10 to 15 or 20 years.

I am sure there are a lot of people here who have given some thought to this, myself included. Of course NONE of us can KNOW, but that is not the question. Rather, based on your experience and insight what is your current judgement. Is there a consensus or are we spread all over on this issue?
__________________

__________________
Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily,
Life is but a dream.
CaliforniaMan is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 12-22-2013, 07:36 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,074
OK everyone, get out those crystal balls and start gazing!
__________________

__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2013, 08:09 PM   #3
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,834
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliforniaMan View Post
Now we are into the second decade of a new century, and my question is what general direction do you think the US economy is headed long term, or at least over say over the next 10 to 15 or 20 years.



My crystal ball says,
Quote:
Reply hazy try again
. Oh no, wait. That was my Magic 8 Ball...
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2013, 08:30 PM   #4
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands, TX
Posts: 7,146
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliforniaMan View Post

Now we are into the second decade of a new century, and my question is what general direction do you think the US economy is headed long term, or at least over say over the next 10 to 15 or 20 years.



Unless the asteroid shows up, the economy will be headed down the road influenced by magnetic north.
__________________
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2013, 09:03 PM   #5
Moderator
Alan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Eee Bah Gum
Posts: 21,084
At the same point of time a 100 years ago Britain was at the height of its prosperity. Over the rest of the century they went through 2 world wars, bankrupting the country, rationing in place until 1955, IMF bailout in the 1970's (1975?).

At the end of the century, the average Briton was 10 times better off. (sorry, can't remember where I read those figures)

So, I have few fears for the economic future in the USA (or the UK).
__________________
Retired in Jan, 2010 at 55, moved to England in May 2016
Now it's adventure before dementia
Alan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2013, 08:49 AM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 3,812
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliforniaMan View Post
Rather, based on your experience and insight what is your current judgement. Is there a consensus or are we spread all over on this issue?
I'm not sure how to read the options.

For example "Worse than the average of the 20th, but still OK"

Does that mean absolute living standards will be lower than they were in the 20th century?

Or, does it mean they will be higher, but the rate of improvement will be lower?

I voted, but I assumed the second.
__________________
Independent is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2013, 09:24 AM   #7
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 721
If you're going to give me up to 20 years, I'm voting for about the same... reversion to the mean.
__________________
panacea is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2013, 10:02 AM   #8
Recycles dryer sheets
Ticker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: waldheim
Posts: 126
In my world, I see several signs: (pls note that these are my LOCAL observations)

My job is more secure than ever, and our sales are much higher than last year
My 401-k balance is higher than previous years
Traffic is horrible, the roads, including the interstate, are consistently jammed. That means that companies are shipping goods, and folks are traveling, either to work, shop or vacation.
The stores are all crowded and folks are spending money
The car dealers have cleared off their lots
Gas prices have dropped, a trend that I think will continue
Inflation seems relatively benign
The stock market is roaring, which I believe to be a precursor to the future economy
Repos have dropped, and real estate, including new construction, has new life

My opinion is that the next 10 years should continue to be good, and I am preparing to ER based upon these trends.

I hope I am correct.
__________________
Prepare today for the demands of tomorrow. Plan your move.
Ticker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2013, 10:11 AM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,432
Me.....being the indecisive one that I am, voted for the 3rd one. Not good but not horrible.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2013, 10:17 AM   #10
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 142
At some point wages need to increase for the economy to maintain its momentum.

Wall street likes to cheer when profits are up and wages are down or kept to bare minimum.

Few more years like the past 6 years and most folks will not be able maintain the purchasing power.
__________________
HF63 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2013, 10:19 AM   #11
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Chicago
Posts: 867
The next 10 years will be better than the last 10.
__________________
ripper1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2013, 10:32 AM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
braumeister's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Northern Kentucky
Posts: 8,587
Quote:
Originally Posted by panacea View Post
If you're going to give me up to 20 years, I'm voting for about the same... reversion to the mean.
Seems to me I heard that this time is different.
__________________
braumeister is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2013, 10:39 AM   #13
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,418
I'm guessing we will have a nice period of strong economic growth in our future, and it will begin soon after the next big asteroid collision.
__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-25-2013, 11:40 AM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,397
I have not voted because I am not sure of the intent of the choices.

I think that the standard of living and the US economy will continue to grow in the forseeable future, but the rate of increase will not be as high as that of the past, and definitely not matching that of developing countries.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-25-2013, 12:16 PM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
obgyn65's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: midwestern city
Posts: 4,061
I tend to be pessimistic and believe the next 10 years will be worse than the last 10. I hope to be wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ripper1 View Post
The next 10 years will be better than the last 10.
__________________
Very conservative with investments. Not ER'd yet, 48 years old. Please do not take anything I write or imply as legal, financial or medical advice directed to you. Contact your own financial advisor, healthcare provider, or attorney for financial, medical and legal advice.
obgyn65 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-25-2013, 01:25 PM   #16
Full time employment: Posting here.
antmary's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Northern California
Posts: 542
I think the economy will be worse...that is because I think that the chickens will becoming home to roost re: overpopulation and degradation of our environment.
__________________
antmary is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-25-2013, 03:09 PM   #17
Full time employment: Posting here.
bjorn2bwild's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Western US
Posts: 690
Easy -

Find the person who is 100% correct about the current state of affairs,
extrapolate that out 15-20 years, adjust for error - /.5 (50:50), adjust by the odds of being killed by an asteroid - .0002 x 15-20 years, put that in the following formula -
e=mc2/15-20 years, where e= economy, mc= the memory constant (history does'nt repeat but it rhymes) and the 2= inflation. Multiply that by life expectancy ~
__________________
How's it going to end..............
bjorn2bwild is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-25-2013, 03:10 PM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,397
And your answer is...?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-25-2013, 04:00 PM   #19
Full time employment: Posting here.
bjorn2bwild's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Western US
Posts: 690
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
And your answer is...?
Sorry, I forgot to show my work = ?
Like all good science, it is open source and subject to peer review.
__________________
How's it going to end..............
bjorn2bwild is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-25-2013, 04:02 PM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,397
Eh, you did not show anything to review.
__________________

__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
AA during 3 years High Spending Katsmeow FIRE and Money 34 12-20-2013 09:22 PM
Struggling with work motivation during those few years before ER... LandlordInvestor FIRE and Money 11 01-19-2013 05:21 PM
US Taxes and the Economy chinaco FIRE Related Public Policy 10 09-01-2011 10:06 AM
Two Years Out robcanuck Life after FIRE 9 07-31-2011 11:01 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:13 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.