Portfolio Adjustment

[Spanky]

I am thinking about adding emerging markets and commodity to my portfolio. Any comments will be appreciated.

Large Small INTL Bond Cash REIT EM Commodity

21.52% 15.28% 13.19% 32.84% 5.57% 11.59%

16.52% 15.01% 23.53% 25.71% 1.04% 6.53% 7.14% 4.53

[Nords]

The diversification part is usually a good idea, especially if you can see a change in volatility in the asset-allocation calculators like Financial Engines. Reducing large-cap and raising international can't be bad, although many of today's companies simultaneously occupy both categories and the overlap could be considerable across all allocations. If your proposed EM & commodity allocations don't have a big effect on your volatility then you'd have to consider raising their allocation or just staying with what you have.

OTOH you may need to consider that both categories have had a great run for at least the last three years and are that much more at risk for underperforming over the next three. (Whether they actually WILL underperform is far more speculative.) Diversification is probably the more important priority, but not if you're going to be castigating yourself for jumping in at the top of the market and promptly losing 10-15%.

One way to get the "best" of both would be value averaging. Put your new DCA dollars toward EM & commodities whenever they take a hit (or put less DCA in them when they're outperforming the other categories).

[Spanky]

Nords,

Thanks for the input. You are right about not jumping into EM, commodity, energy and natural resources because of their recent run-ups. DCA seems to be a prudent idea.

Spanky

[JPatrick]

Originally Posted by Spanky

Nords,

Thanks for the input. You are right about not jumping into EM, commodity, energy and natural resources because of their recent run-ups. DCA seems to be a prudent idea.

Spanky

However you do it, EM's are a vital part of any portfolio.
It's just a wild a$$ guess, but I wouldn't be overly surprised if EM's out performed everything else over the next 15 years or so.