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Portfolio and retirement plan critique. Do I have enough?
Old 10-13-2015, 10:41 PM   #1
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Portfolio and retirement plan critique. Do I have enough?

A little background about me

Male, mid 30s. I grew up in a poor country and a poor family, so I am naturally frugal (e.g. cook at home most of the time, don't have a car, can do without luxuries). I have no family, no children, no plans or desire to have them in the foreseeable future. I live in the US (HCOL area) and have a pretty good professional job which I don't like. I never liked any corporate jobs I had in my life mainly because I value my freedom and hate reporting to other people. I want to retire or at least semi-retire as early as possible, ideally within the next couple of years.

When I semi-retire, my plan is to travel around South East Asia for awhile, maybe also visit other low cost destinations, such as Eastern Europe, then perhaps settle somewhere with nice weather and low cost of living. Based on my own experience (I travel quite a lot) and information I have from other people with similar lifestyles, I can travel/live pretty comfortably on about $1.5K/month in today's dollars. I could even manage on $1K/month, but that would be more like more like surviving than living. Using the 4% draw formula, I need $450K to get 1.5K/month. I already have over $300K for 1K/month to cover bare essentials. After initial few months of "detoxing", I am planning to start a part time freelancing gig or a low investment, bootsrtapped location independent business. The idea is to withdraw a baseline amount of living expenses from my nest egg and use anything else I earn to improve my lifestyle and add to that nest egg or compensate for market dips/portfolio deterioration if need be.

Detailed portfolio information:

Current total net worth Ė about $320K
No debt. No real estate.
Emergency Funds: $44K in checking accounts. I included them in net worth and asset allocation below.
Tax Filing Status: Single with no children
State of Residence: NJ
Age: 36
Desired Asset allocation: approx 85% stocks/15% bonds (flexible)
Desired International allocation: 20-30% (flexible)
Risk tolerance: relatively high

Assets:

Total net worth Ė about $320K (100%)

Cash and Cash Equivalents (total $44K, 14% of NW)
-Vanguard Tax-Exempt Money Market Fund (6.7K, 2%)
-US-based checking accounts: (24K, 7.5%)
-International checking account (13K dollar equivalent, 4%)

Taxable Investment Account
Vanguard Brokerage Account (total 118K, 37% of NW)
-VFIAX Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Class, ER 0.05% (95K, 30%)
-VTMGX Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund Admiral Shares, ER 0.09% (10K, 3%)
-VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS ETF, ER 0.15% (1.7K, 0.5%)
-RSX MARKET VECTORS ETF ER 0.61% (4.7K, 1.5%)

Tax Advantaged Investment Accounts
Vanguard ROTH IRA (total 24.4K, 7.7% of NW)
-VYM VANGUARD HIGH DIVIDEND YIELD ETF, ER 0.10% (19K, 6%)
-VNQ VANGUARD REIT INDEX ETF, ER 0.12% (5.4K, 1.7%)

401K (Provider Selected by Employer)
2040 target date retirement fund, ER 0.5% (109K, 34% of NW)
This is a relatively expensive target date fund which doesnít have a ticker. Approx. asset allocation: 30% intl stocks, 8% bonds, 62% US Stocks (large and mid cap). I am considering replacing it with an S%P500 ETF which is available for 0.15% ER from the same 401K provider. There are other funds as well, but they are relatively expensive, particularly international funds. To avoid paying high fees, I am considering rolling over the 401K to a Vanguard IRA when I quit my current job.

HSA account: almost all of it invested in VIIIX Vanguard Institutional Index (ER 0.41% including HSA providerís fee). (12.4K, 3.8% of NW).

Foreign Retirement Accounts:

Defined Benefit Pension from a former employer in Europe:
From age 65, I expect to be paid $260/month in today's currency, adjusted for inflation. If I take the pension at 55, I'll be paid approx $150/month in today's currency. I use $13K (4% of NW) as the current value of this pension because this is how much I would get if I transfered it to a different pension scheme, but Iím going to keep it as it seems to be worth considerably more.

Other Foreign Pension:
A state pension fund from an emerging market country, currently valued at $10K (3% of NW), can withdraw early or keep it until retirement age. This amount is invested in emerging market government bonds. I'm not going to cash it anytime soon because it's good for diversification.

Savings/Contributions:
I currently max out my 401K and ROTH IRA and HSA and contribute $3K/month to taxable accounts. Total target contributions are about $60K/year (including taxable, tax-advantaged and company match), currently higher because Iíve been dollar cost averaging extra cash and will reduce after tax contributions when Iím ok with my cash holdings.

Withdrawals plan:

First few years - use taxable accounts and savings from part time gig/business for living expenses. Roll over 401K to IRA immediately, then use the ROTH IRA conversion ladder.
After that, use part time business income + ROTH IRA principal until I can withdraw interest. Wind down the business/part time gigs, timing will depend on financial conditions.
After age 55, use the next egg, including tax advantaged accounts and small foreign pensions, for living expenses. Also add Social Security after age 65 (exact timing depends on financial conditions).

Questions:

1. How realistic is my goal to drop out of the rat race as soon as possible? Please feel free to critique it from the financial/risk as well as lifestyle perspective and point out its weaknesses.

2. How do I optimize my portfolio given my current situation and goals? What can be improved in terms of asset allocation and specific funds I invest in?

3. Regardless of the plan (which I can adjust based on feedback as well as financial situation going forward), are there any obvious mistakes or improvement opportunities in my portfolio?

Thanks a lot for taking a look! All advice is very appreciated!
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Old 10-14-2015, 09:09 AM   #2
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I'm sure those with more experience will be along, but my opinion is you have far too little. 4% is a rule of thumb, I would target more in the 2% range if looking to get out in your 30's. But, you don't have a family or kids, so the consequences of failure are small.

Not sure how things work for foreign pensions, but the small one I have states if the benefit is <$1000/month, you have to take a lump sum. Just something to look at it.

My other concern, and maybe you're doing this, but you say you live a frugal life, but are you tracking it?
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Old 10-14-2015, 09:50 AM   #3
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How much are you expecting from Social Security? If you drop out early, your benefit will drop significantly. They use 35 years of income in determining your benefit, and you'll have a lot of zeros in there.
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Old 10-14-2015, 10:30 AM   #4
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Make sure you consider taxes in your evaluation. If you're a US citizen, you'll still have to pay US taxes even if living abroad.

And I also caution on using a 4% withdrawal rate for a possibly 50 year retirement.
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Old 10-14-2015, 10:49 AM   #5
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You are very young and talking about a very very basic existence. Have you considered trying to figure out another career path? You have a big enough stash so that you can certainly transition to something that might be more "you". You might not have much flexibility for lifestyle changes, and I think at your age that could be a problem.
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:08 AM   #6
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Interesting. I'm a very conservative person and thus would be very reluctant to even consider semi-retirement with your numbers. Lots of unknowns and possibly high risks. For example, imagine quitting current job and moving to Asia somewhere and then getting pretty ill before establishing any part time income. I personally would think through tough possibilities like these and see if I had a "plan B" that I could revert to easily in those cases.

I also would be very reluctant to commit to an extremely frugal lifestyle for many, many years. I prefer more financial freedom but we all are different.

You are young and may feel much less risk adverse than I. Maybe one way to look at this is as an experiment for several years to see how it goes. Consider how long you could be out of the "normal" work force and yet return if you wanted / needed to. Set a date by which you need to decide for sure if things are working as well as you hoped. If not, be willing to jump back to some type of full time work.

I suspect the focus on frugality will be just as / maybe more important than your investment asset allocations which look pretty reasonable. Sounds like you have some good history in that regard. But staying single without family is another thing I wouldn't want to commit to so young in life. And family can change things quite a bit.

I guess the bottom line is your plan seems very risky financially but may be a good decision for you as long as you think through backup plans if things go sour. Personally I would seriously consider the earlier suggestion of looking for some other full time job that better fit your interests and desires to get to other parts of the world.
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:30 AM   #7
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Lots of people have freelance / digital nomad type jobs these days. I do. I vote go for it. Worst case you deplete some of your savings and have to go back to a regular job.

Your job security these days likely depends more on developing an in demand business or skill set rather than planning on getting in with a solid megacorp and working there until you get a gold watch. High pay per hour and low personal overhead can mean a nice life with just part-time or part year work.

If you have not read The Millionaire Next Door, I think that might be a good fit for your objectives. In either that book or one of the later in the same series the author says that more job security can come from having your own business and 200 customers and not a single employer who can fire you at a moment's notice. If you lose one customer you usually don't lose 100% of your income like you do if you lose a job.
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:36 AM   #8
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In the true sense of retirement, I would advise to keep working. It could be that if you have some children, there are many government programs that will help more.

Earned Income tax credits require some sort of occupation, but are mostly only applicable if you have children. That is the same with most tax credits and deductions. I have often thought that it may be financially lucrative to adopt a child from a low-cost country, pay a person there to raise it, and get the USA tax credits and deductions.

If you do some side gigs, remember being self-employed is not retirement, nor is it financially independent, but is definitely more enjoyable than working for someone.
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Old 10-14-2015, 07:28 PM   #9
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I think you would be better to change jobs and find something you enjoy.

$18k a year is a fairly meager existence and provides little room for error if your freelancing gigs don't pan out.

Have you run your plan through firecalc? I suspect that your success rate is probably mid 80s at best.
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Old 10-14-2015, 07:44 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Starper View Post
After that, use part time business income + ROTH IRA principal until I can withdraw interest. Wind down the business/part time gigs, timing will depend on financial conditions.
You should start the part-time gig now, while you are working. There are seven nights (or days) each week you can work at developing the business. And weekends. And if your job has holidays and vacation, use that time to devote to the business.

Once the business has taken off, look at your situation again.

That is how to be a successful business owner. Most people are W2 wage slaves as they do not have the drive or determination to succeed in business. Then, they have to work until 65+, and live a measly lifestyle.
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Old 10-14-2015, 09:30 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by ronocnikral View Post
I'm sure those with more experience will be along, but my opinion is you have far too little. 4% is a rule of thumb, I would target more in the 2% range if looking to get out in your 30's. But, you don't have a family or kids, so the consequences of failure are small.

Not sure how things work for foreign pensions, but the small one I have states if the benefit is <$1000/month, you have to take a lump sum. Just something to look at it.

My other concern, and maybe you're doing this, but you say you live a frugal life, but are you tracking it?
I'm trying to find out how much exactly I'll be receiving from the pension scheme and what the conditions are.

I use Mint and Personal Capital to track expenses and investments, but I've never been good at recording every expense and budgeting. I watch how much money comes in and out and calculate how much I save as a result. 60K per year of savings is not too bad, though I could increase this number if I really cut all my expenses down to the bare minimum.
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Old 10-14-2015, 09:33 PM   #12
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How much are you expecting from Social Security? If you drop out early, your benefit will drop significantly. They use 35 years of income in determining your benefit, and you'll have a lot of zeros in there.
I am not expecting very much from social security. As of now, I have enough years (using the "totalization agreement" with a European country where I also worked) to qualify for Social Security, but will probably get very little.

However, If i register as self employed and run a part time business or work as a freelancer while living abroad, I'll have to pay FICA taxes, so they will count towards Social Security and Medicare entitlements.
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Old 10-14-2015, 09:39 PM   #13
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You are very young and talking about a very very basic existence. Have you considered trying to figure out another career path? You have a big enough stash so that you can certainly transition to something that might be more "you". You might not have much flexibility for lifestyle changes, and I think at your age that could be a problem.
I don't mind doing what I currently do, but the problem is that there is always a bad apple (or a few) in management who pushes too hard for no good reason and makes other people's lives hell. Even if I find a new job and manage to vet my would be bosses, they move around frequently, so a few months from that point there may be another psychopath with the authority to make my life miserable.
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Old 10-14-2015, 09:43 PM   #14
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I think you would be better to change jobs and find something you enjoy.

$18k a year is a fairly meager existence and provides little room for error if your freelancing gigs don't pan out.

Have you run your plan through firecalc? I suspect that your success rate is probably mid 80s at best.
I have, and you are correct. Mid 80s prob of success is what I get.
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Old 10-14-2015, 09:48 PM   #15
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Lots of people have freelance / digital nomad type jobs these days. I do. I vote go for it. Worst case you deplete some of your savings and have to go back to a regular job.

Your job security these days likely depends more on developing an in demand business or skill set rather than planning on getting in with a solid megacorp and working there until you get a gold watch. High pay per hour and low personal overhead can mean a nice life with just part-time or part year work.

If you have not read The Millionaire Next Door, I think that might be a good fit for your objectives. In either that book or one of the later in the same series the author says that more job security can come from having your own business and 200 customers and not a single employer who can fire you at a moment's notice. If you lose one customer you usually don't lose 100% of your income like you do if you lose a job.
I haven't read the Millionaire Next Door, but I came across the same idea several times in different blogs and podcasts about freelancing and location independence. I agree that full time employment is not what it used to be. I also notice that it's getting worse every year.
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Old 10-14-2015, 09:56 PM   #16
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You should start the part-time gig now, while you are working. There are seven nights (or days) each week you can work at developing the business. And weekends. And if your job has holidays and vacation, use that time to devote to the business.

Once the business has taken off, look at your situation again.

That is how to be a successful business owner. Most people are W2 wage slaves as they do not have the drive or determination to succeed in business. Then, they have to work until 65+, and live a measly lifestyle.
I agree 100%. Here's the thing though.. I know this is what I should be doing. Like people know they shouldn't be drinking or stuffing their faces, but many still do. So yes, I have only myself to blame for not having started a side gig while I'm still employed. I'll do my best to start it as soon as I can.
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Old 10-14-2015, 10:52 PM   #17
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I agree with the point that FireCALC shows quite a few scenarios where you have, effectively, run out of money after 30 years. Some in the "financial press" who are light on the truth love to quote the 4% as a rule and some panacea - but if you actually understand the "4% rule", you know that it only survived 30 years. If you went 31 years, you would have completely run out of money with several cases, and then there are also some cases where your portfolio was more than "permanently impaired beyond recovery" after 30 years, and would have been a short time later when you completely ran out of money.

Would you want to live every day with the agonizing, slow portfolio death spiral, wondering how much longer it will be until you have to go back to work - and then work until you pretty much drop, given the competition you will have, and having to take any job you can get after being out of the workforce for 10/20/25 years?

Not many countries will let you simply immigrate there. You'll have to read up on what countries will let you live there, under various length-of-stay scenarios. Unlike the US, most countries are actually strict with visitors and actually do enforce their visa programs.

Also, understand the difficulty of US citizens with having foreign bank accounts with the new reporting requirements. You can't just walk down to the neighborhood foreign bank and open up an account as an American citizen, as most won't give you an account.

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I agree 100%. Here's the thing though.. I know this is what I should be doing. Like people know they shouldn't be drinking or stuffing their faces, but many still do. So yes, I have only myself to blame for not having started a side gig while I'm still employed. I'll do my best to start it as soon as I can.
Self employment can be a great opportunity - but I'm afraid most romanticize it. What exactly do you not like with your current job? Do you think that @sshole boss that you can't stand is only there at your current employer? Imagine if they were your client instead? Think you have to kiss up to them now? What do you think it's like when you have to compete against 3 other consultants/firms to get their business, instead of just being a rank-and-file employee?

If you can't develop your side gig now, what makes you think you will be able to effectively do it after you want to 'retire'? And what is it about being self-employed that makes you think it's 10x better than working for someone else? Do you think you can do whatever you want while selling your services/products to other firms or people? Instead of just 1 boss or a few co-workers you have to keep happy, it's 10x (or more) as many! with a far greater variation in personality traits out there. Some better than you current boss....but some worse.
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Old 10-15-2015, 07:57 AM   #18
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I think you would be better to change jobs and find something you enjoy.

$18k a year is a fairly meager existence and provides little room for error if your freelancing gigs don't pan out.

Have you run your plan through firecalc? I suspect that your success rate is probably mid 80s at best.
+1000!

I going to comment on another view.

There is a huge difference is my life between 32 and 52. I too have been in jobs that I loathe, hate and despise. it's very hard to see a "future" when you are in that situation. all you can think about is escaping it.

Next, extreme frugality just like extreme diets very seldom work in the long run.
Sure many people can give up vacations for a year or two but living the next 50 years without every enjoying one luxury is not how I would want to live.

My suggestions.

keep working while exploring the side gig. The great thing about being young (as I tell my kids) is that you do have time on your side to fall back on if you hit a bump in the road.

hang in there, it's a lot easier to find something you really love while having a means to pay the bills.
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Old 10-15-2015, 09:31 AM   #19
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It sounds to me as if you are looking to escape your current work situation and calling it "semi-retirement." Traveling around SE Asia or Eastern Europe will cost you more money than you think even if staying in low budget hotels/hostels until you find a place to settle down. And more and more countries are making it increasingly difficult (Thailand for example) for foreigners to acquire residency status as well as set up bank accounts. The fees are becoming criminal as they look to gouge the "foreigner" at every opportunity.

Also, I don't care how cheaply you think you can live in a foreign country. You will always be charged more than the locals simply because you are the foreigner. This includes rent, food, taxis, health are etc. And speaking of health care....at 36 you may be healthy, but as you age and may need more health care options do you really want to rely on 3rd world country health care services?

I had a friend who lived for a short period of time in the Philippines. He had a mild heart attack and was admitted to a local hospital in the province. First thing they wanted was his credit card, up front, to make sure they got paid. Next he was in a room with 3 other patients. Not the cleanest hospital room and just a mattress on a box spring. PAtients are expected to supply their own sheets pillows,etc. Oh and food? Extra charge and you won't want to eat it which is why family members cook and bring in food for family members in the hospital.

But whatever you do good luck.
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Old 10-15-2015, 10:08 AM   #20
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I don't mind doing what I currently do, but the problem is that there is always a bad apple (or a few) in management who pushes too hard for no good reason and makes other people's lives hell. Even if I find a new job and manage to vet my would be bosses, they move around frequently, so a few months from that point there may be another psychopath with the authority to make my life miserable.
One thing age teaches us is that in many cases, bosses don't make our lives miserable unless we let them.

When you have an unreasonable boss, just keep working the way you think things should be done and avoid the bad boss as much as possible. Don't confront him, just let his comments slide while you do what is right in your job. The worst that he can do is fire you and you are on your way down a new path. In the better companies, those around you see the good job you are doing despite the boss and they respect you for it. This pays off in the longer run as the bad boss moves on. Sometimes, even the bad boss sees the light and starts to become your advocate. These aren't just make believe stories, been there....done that!
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