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Old 08-16-2007, 07:56 AM   #21
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I don't even want to calculate. We're right in the middle of changing asset allocation due to a brokerage move, and we just hadn't gotten to it yet. We do not need the money for 10 years or so (will retire earlier on taxable dollars) so calculating this would just be misery.

On a better not I started with a new company 2 months ago and was happy to see that the 401k match calculates on entire year, not by quarter so they are really loading funds in for me quickly. My last company did it by quarter so you had to spread out your contributions or miss some match.
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Old 08-16-2007, 08:38 AM   #22
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note sure... still contributing and still 99% equity and 1% bonds.
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Old 08-17-2007, 06:01 PM   #23
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Down 7.2% from year high to 17 Aug. Up 2.9% YTD.
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Old 08-17-2007, 08:26 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by runnerr View Post
What percentage or dollar figure is your portfolio down (or) is up since the market started its decline?
No idea. I don't record that closely. 1% up for the year so not exactly raking it in this year.
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Old 08-18-2007, 05:33 AM   #25
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Including the benefits of Friday's rally, I'm up 5.1% for the year. On July 13, I was up 13.4%. The last month did a pretty good job on me but being up 5.1% in August is still a pretty decent year so far.

This current volatility isn't unusual. What's been happening over the last 4 years is. This is our first decent correction and we should be seeing one about every 18 - 24 months. What's happened so far may not be the end of the correction. Our drop has so far peaked out just over 10%. 20% isn't unusual for these things.

This is why you asset allocate and don't go too heavily into fringe holdings. In the long run, sure and steady wins the race. Every asset class or country can have a good few years but history says that they will eventually even out. There's no free lunch.

I've got 7 years of living expenses in cash and CDs. I'm way over paid in a stress free j*b that lets me save about 20% of my gross. I think I can handle this blip.

BTW -- I was a dedicated stock technical analyst for years. That crap does not work. You might as well flip a coin when it comes to predicting market moves. Technical analysis does make you sound so stock sophisticated when you talk about what did happen.
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Old 08-18-2007, 06:53 AM   #26
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2B.. I'm relieved you've backed up my (completely inexperienced) instincts expressed in the buy/sell/hold poll thread.

Just curious how you feel, though, about having spent years of yr. life dedicated to "crap that doesn't work"!!
What line are you in now?

---
my summary from poll thread:
Friday's prices (8/17) YTD up 6.5%.

Thursday's prices ->5.1%
Wednesday's ->10.3%
365 days to 8/18/06 -> 16.3%

The difference between the 5% ytd return and the 10% ytd return is predicated on a change (Wed.->Thurs.) of 3% of the underlying portfolio which then got back about 1% (Thurs.->Fri.). Not particularly scary yet. [But then again I don't have 7 years' expenses in cash OR a "way overpaid stress-free job".. like 2B]
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Old 08-18-2007, 08:29 AM   #27
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Just curious how you feel, though, about having spent years of yr. life dedicated to "crap that doesn't work"!!
What line are you in now?
I became a technician in the mid-80's after the run up that started in 1982 gave me my first decent sized portfolio. That went on until the early 90's when several years of my computerized results showed my returns to be right at or just below the S&P for my years of effort. How did I feel? It was like finding out your significant other has been cheating on you. You want to get mad but you know there's no point. It's just time to move on.

I went into the phase of my own "high quality" stock portfolio that I could pick by fundamental analysis. Here I had winners and losers and once again failed to beat the S&P.

Around 2000, I discovered Burns and Bogle. Then I began the migration to diversified index funds. When I got the bulk of my 401k moved to my IRA in 2002, I was pretty well totally converted. For the last few years I've consistently beaten the S&P by being in emerging markets, foreign and small caps.

I'm now an engineer with an E&C firm in Houston. If you talk to people I work with, they will say they are under stress but it's all perspective and relative. I know I'm now FI and could easily get by without a paycheck. Also, in a prior position where I was "important," I was on call 24-7, worked 60 hours/week and had lots of "encouragement" from my brain-dead "leadership" team. Getting layed off was one of the best things that ever happened to me although it was quite traumatic at the time.

Why don't I RE? I'm trapped in Houston until my in-laws die. They are both in a "facility" and my DW is the custodial party. They have been high maintenace for the last few years but the logistics are stabilizing. My MIL my also not be with us much longer which is good -- she's in extreme pain and has 0 quality of life.

I get 4 weeks of vacation where I w*rk and there is a liberal policy for taking unpaid time off while still keeping benefits active. I frequently only go in 4 days per week so I usually have 3 day weekends now. My problem is getting DW to leave town to use what vacation time I get. I can't see any point in sitting around Houston with nothing to do all day except visit the in-laws.
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Old 08-18-2007, 08:56 AM   #28
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[quote=2B;547892]I became a technician in the mid-80's after the run up that started in 1982 gave me my first decent sized portfolio. That went on until the early 90's when several years of my computerized results showed my returns to be right at or just below the S&P for my years of effort. How did I feel? It was like finding out your significant other has been cheating on you. You want to get mad but you know there's no point. It's just time to move on.

I went into the phase of my own "high quality" stock portfolio that I could pick by fundamental analysis. Here I had winners and losers and once again failed to beat the S&P.

[quote]

i'm still new at this, but the MACD diversion from the direction of the indexes thing saved me some cash in the last month. it won't tell you an exact top, but its a pretty good indicator
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Old 08-18-2007, 09:25 AM   #29
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i'm still new at this, but the MACD diversion from the direction of the indexes thing saved me some cash in the last month. it won't tell you an exact top, but its a pretty good indicator
Technical analysis works until it doesn't. It gives many false signals to buy or sell. Sometimes it gives a buy signal when you should sell. After the "trend" plays out, a technical analysis "rule" will describe the actual event perfectly. Unfortunately, there is usually another "rule" that would describe the actual event if it had done the exact opposite.

Technical analysis didn't work for me. There have been various studies done that says it doesn't work. It does generate a lot of extra trading and a feeling of "comfort" amongst its practioners.

Good luck to you if you want to follow it. I encourage you to be skeptical and careful. Don't take positions where you can't afford to be wrong.

The only thing good I can say about technical analysis is that it cost me less money than commodities.
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Old 08-18-2007, 09:29 AM   #30
 
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Old 08-18-2007, 11:00 AM   #31
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I am up 3.9% thru Friday.

I moved some cash from bonds to equity at about 13300....that did'nt help thus far.

I am recieving the funds from selling my San Diego property next week. I plan on putting it in CDs, money markets and about 35% into equities. My plan with the equity portion is to park it and slip it in during dips/corrections.
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Old 08-18-2007, 11:19 AM   #32
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Our stock portfolio has retreated to its Dec 15, 2006 valuation - however it seems that our $180k in cash from profit-taking will be reinvested in the next few weeks during the continuing summer fire sale.
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