Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Portfolio Survival Simulator
Old 10-22-2003, 09:15 AM   #1
Confused about dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 1
Portfolio Survival Simulator

Does anyone have any good or bad experience relative to this Excel $19.95 portfolio survival calculator??

http://www.portfoliosurvival.com/

Thanks in advance
Bernie Ellert
__________________

__________________
bellert is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Portfolio Survival Simulator
Old 10-22-2003, 10:48 AM   #2
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 902
Re: Portfolio Survival Simulator

Yes, Bernie. I bought it. I just wanted to have another tool to verify my figures. The output I get is fairly close to what I get at Financial Engines. Actually Financial Engines is more optimistic, by about $3,000 in terms of projected annual income, and I have been concerned that it is too optimistic. Of course they assume one buys an annuity, but I question whether one can actually buy an annuity that provides the payout they project. So I'm reluctant to rely on one or even two tools.

The directions for Portfolio Survival Simulator are poor - it took me some time to figure out how to use it. I use the Monte Carlo Simulations. Between Firecalc, Financial Engines, and Portfolio Survival Simulator I believe I'm being about as thorough as possible. I don't want to rely on any one tool. All three of the tools I use are in the ballpark. All in all, I'd recommend Portfolio Survival Simulator.
__________________

__________________
Bob_Smith is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Portfolio Survival Simulator
Old 10-24-2003, 12:55 PM   #3
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 10
Re: Portfolio Survival Simulator

Bernie, yes I have bought and used the Portfolio Survival Simulator recently. I thought is was well worth the money. I ran the three types of simulations (historical, bootstrap and Monte Carlo) and thought the results were useful and revealing. If you have lots of time you can re-run the simulations with lots of variables (spending plans, mix of assets, time horizons, expense of investments, etc) to give you a number of different answers. Yes the instructions for the variables (particulatly the expalaination of the cash flows) is somewhat obscure but with study and some experimentation you can figure it out. To run a 10000 iteration Monte Carlo simulation on my 366mz PC took about 30 minutes. Smaller simulations (100 or so iterations go quickly) It must have EXCEL to Run. Run the small number of iterations (Monte Carlo or bootstrap) first until you are sure your cash flows and variables are what you want and then run the larger iterations.
__________________
Retiredtwice is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Portfolio Survival Simulator
Old 10-24-2003, 01:00 PM   #4
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 10
Re: Portfolio Survival Simulator

Bernie, yes I have bought and used the Portfolio Survival Simulator recently. I thought is was well worth the money. I ran the three types of simulations (historical, bootstrap and Monte Carlo) and thought the results were useful and revealing. If you have lots of time you can re-run the simulations with lots of variables (spending plans, mix of assets, time horizons, expense of investments, etc) to give you a number of different answers. Yes the instructions for the variables (particulatly the expalaination of the cash flows) is somewhat obscure but with study and some experimentation you can figure it out. To run a 10000 iteration Monte Carlo simulation on my 366mz PC took about 30 minutes. Smaller simulations (100 or so iterations go quickly) It must have EXCEL to Run. Run the small number of iterations (Monte Carlo or bootstrap) first until you are sure your cash flows and variables are what you want and then run the larger iterations.
__________________
Retiredtwice is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Portfolio Survival Simulator
Old 10-24-2003, 01:03 PM   #5
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 10
Re: Portfolio Survival Simulator

Bernie, yes I have bought and used the Portfolio Survival Simulator recently. I thought is was well worth the money. I ran the three types of simulations (historical, bootstrap and Monte Carlo) and thought the results were useful and revealing. If you have lots of time you can re-run the simulations with lots of variables (spending plans, mix of assets, time horizons, expense of investments, etc) to give you a number of different answers. Yes the instructions for the variables (particulatly the expalaination of the cash flows) is somewhat obscure but with study and some experimentation you can figure it out. To run a 10000 iteration Monte Carlo simulation on my 366mz PC took about 30 minutes. Smaller simulations (100 or so iterations go quickly) It must have EXCEL to Run. Run the small number of iterations (Monte Carlo or bootstrap) first until you are sure your cash flows and variables are what you want and then run the larger iterations.
__________________
Retiredtwice is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
SWR - Amortize your portfolio RgrGd FIRE and Money 5 03-28-2007 11:29 AM
Another perspective on a high-equity portfolio Nords FIRE and Money 98 02-13-2006 12:37 PM
Global diversification and portfolio survival ronin FIRE and Money 13 06-17-2005 07:22 PM
Conservative distribution phase portfolio peteyperson FIRE and Money 13 03-22-2005 07:48 AM
Volatility in your Portfolio ESRBob FIRE and Money 5 03-03-2005 10:09 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:15 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.