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Possible near 3% SS hike for 2019?
07-09-2018, 07:35 AM
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#1
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Full time employment: Posting here.
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Posts: 968
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Possible near 3% SS hike for 2019?
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07-09-2018, 07:45 AM
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#2
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Flyover country
Posts: 25,155
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Certainly possible, if you look at the trend.
But it would take sustained increases through the summer and historically that's somewhat unlikely. Should be good for at least another 2% though IMHO.
Screen Shot 2018-07-09 at 9.43.37 AM.png
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07-09-2018, 08:20 AM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,197
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2% would be fine, but will they raise the 134 Medicare Part B premium?
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07-09-2018, 10:13 AM
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#4
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And for some people who currently pay less than $134 based on hold harmless, all or a portion of their COLA increase will get absorbed.... right?
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07-09-2018, 10:35 AM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 2,130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
And for some people who currently pay less than $134 based on hold harmless, all or a portion of their COLA increase will get absorbed.... right?
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Right.
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And whatever your labors and aspirations in the noisy confusion of life, keep peace in your soul. With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be cheerful. Strive to be happy.- Desiderata by Max Ehrmann
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07-09-2018, 10:41 AM
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#6
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gone traveling
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 994
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I read the SS COLA might be a little more than 3%
and the 2019 Medicare B premium either might not
increase at all or only increase a couple of dollars.
This means we might actually get to keep most
of the SS increase in 2019.
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07-09-2018, 10:47 AM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
And for some people who currently pay less than $134 based on hold harmless, all or a portion of their COLA increase will get absorbed.... right?
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My DGF was caught up last year with the increase.
This brings another concept into play!!!!
When one is deciding when to take SS, the "hold harmless" concept is sometimes factored into the decision (perhaps a more minor part of the equation), so if one ends up not really being held harmless over a period of years, how useful is this part of the equation ?
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07-09-2018, 11:05 AM
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#8
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Location: Rio Grande Valley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail
My DGF was caught up last year with the increase.
This brings another concept into play!!!!
When one is deciding when to take SS, the "hold harmless" concept is sometimes factored into the decision (perhaps a more minor part of the equation), so if one ends up not really being held harmless over a period of years, how useful is this part of the equation ?
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It’s temporary. You eventually catch back up.
If subject to IRMAA you are never held harmless. Neither are first year Medicare folks.
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07-09-2018, 11:13 AM
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#9
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gone traveling
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 994
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail
My DGF was caught up last year with the increase.
This brings another concept into play!!!!
When one is deciding when to take SS, the "hold harmless" concept is sometimes factored into the decision (perhaps a more minor part of the equation), so if one ends up not really being held harmless over a period of years, how useful is this part of the equation ?
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The "hold harmless" provision guarantees your current SS amount will not go down due to an increase in your Medicare B premium. But that guarantee does NOT cover the yearly COLA [if any.] So some or all your COLA could go to a Medicare B premium increase. This happened to many people in 2018.
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07-09-2018, 11:22 AM
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#10
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gone traveling
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 994
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
It’s temporary. You eventually catch back up.
If subject to IRMAA you are never held harmless. Neither are first year Medicare folks.
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2017 was my first year. My SS amount did decrease to pay the $134 a month Medicare B premium while the "hold harmless" group was paying less. But I was able to enjoy all of the 2018 COLA [while the "hold harmless" group was catching up.]
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07-09-2018, 12:19 PM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,197
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Helena
The "hold harmless" provision guarantees your current SS amount will not go down due to an increase in your Medicare B premium. But that guarantee does NOT cover the yearly COLA [if any.] So some or all your COLA could go to a Medicare B premium increase. This happened to many people in 2018.
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Yes that is my point in that how valuable is the hold harmless aspect when deciding whether to take SS early, if it eventually gets caught up.
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07-09-2018, 12:47 PM
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#12
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gone traveling
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 994
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail
Yes that is my point in that how valuable is the hold harmless aspect when deciding whether to take SS early, if it eventually gets caught up.
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I took early SS at age 62 had COLAs but no Medicare B premium until eligible for Medicare at age 65. In 2017 at age 65 I paid the Medicare B premium in effect at that time, $134 a month. Now, beginning in 2018, I am not subject to IRMAA and I am protected by that same hold harmless provision. Now it doesn't matter how much my Medicare B premium goes up, my SS amount will never go down [although future COLA increases might be affected.]
Disturbingly, after reading some recent news articles, I get the impression the media is trying to spin the SS "hold harmless" provision as a negative... when it actually serves to protect SS recipients.
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07-09-2018, 01:04 PM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 2,130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Helena
Disturbingly, after reading some recent news articles, I get the impression the media is trying to spin the SS "hold harmless" provision as a negative... when it actually serves to protect SS recipients.
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I can actually see both sides of this argument as being valid. On one hand, you have seniors, many of whom live on SS alone, needing to maintain that check in order to live. On the other hand, the Medicare fund is seriously underfunded. By allowing hundreds of thousands of SS recipients not pay their full share, it only makes this worse. It's a conundrum for sure.
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And whatever your labors and aspirations in the noisy confusion of life, keep peace in your soul. With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be cheerful. Strive to be happy.- Desiderata by Max Ehrmann
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07-09-2018, 01:25 PM
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#14
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gone traveling
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 994
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MissMolly
I can actually see both sides of this argument as being valid. On one hand, you have seniors, many of whom live on SS alone, needing to maintain that check in order to live. On the other hand, the Medicare fund is seriously underfunded. By allowing hundreds of thousands of SS recipients not pay their full share, it only makes this worse. It's a conundrum for sure.
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If it weren't for the hold harmless provision, the ever increasing Medicare B premium would eventually eat away at the already low SS income for the poorest among us who can least afford it.
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07-09-2018, 01:37 PM
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#15
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 987
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I suppose theoretically the lower SS recipients could never see a COLA increase if Medicare increases always outstrip the COLA amounts, right?
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07-09-2018, 02:00 PM
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#16
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gone traveling
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 994
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Perryinva
I suppose theoretically the lower SS recipients could never see a COLA increase if Medicare increases always outstrip the COLA amounts, right?
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That hasn't happened... yet.
But insurance premium [not just Medicare B] increases are now outpacing almost everthing else.
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07-09-2018, 06:20 PM
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#17
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 198
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New to this 'Social Security thing'......so please bear with me.......
1. Does the increase (if given) only apply to the amount you receive if your ARE ALREADY receiving benefits? Or does it also include an increase to the amount you WILL get if you have delayed receiving benefits?
2. If someone is receiving spousal benefits (50% of their spouses amount), will they be getting a portion of the percentage of increase also? Or does it not apply in any way to spousal benefits?
Thanks from a new "member" of the Social Security crowd !!!!
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07-09-2018, 06:51 PM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 4,629
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Perryinva
I suppose theoretically the lower SS recipients could never see a COLA increase if Medicare increases always outstrip the COLA amounts, right?
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Yes, theoretically. But, practically, that's unlikely over the long term.
Consider "low" retirees getting about $900/month. A 2% COLA adjustment adds $18 to their monthly checks. If they are paying $134 for Medicare part B, the Medicare premium would have to go up by 18/134 = 13% for the Medicare premium to absorb all their SS COLA adjustment.
Although a combination of 2% CPI increase and a 13% Medicare increase is possible, especially for one year, it seems to me that is an unlikely year-after-year situation.
It took about 13 years for the Medicare premium to double (from 2004 to 2017). This is an annual increase of less than 6%. During the same time period, the CPI-W grew at about 2% per year. Those number seem more likely looking forward to me.
OTOH, even though the 2%/6% situation allows for some SS COLA increase, it chews up a big chunk. Medical costs have gone up faster than average costs, and retirees spend a larger share of their incomes on medical bills. The hold harmless provision does very little to protect SS recipients from the long term effects of that.
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07-09-2018, 07:40 PM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 2,130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Momcpa
New to this 'Social Security thing'......so please bear with me.......
1. Does the increase (if given) only apply to the amount you receive if your ARE ALREADY receiving benefits? Or does it also include an increase to the amount you WILL get if you have delayed receiving benefits? It will apply to any future amount you will get on your own benefits if you are delaying claiming those benefits.
2. If someone is receiving spousal benefits (50% of their spouses amount), will they be getting a portion of the percentage of increase also? Or does it not apply in any way to spousal benefits? All people receiving SS will receive the COLA increase if one is granted.
Thanks from a new "member" of the Social Security crowd !!!!
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This is my understanding.
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And whatever your labors and aspirations in the noisy confusion of life, keep peace in your soul. With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be cheerful. Strive to be happy.- Desiderata by Max Ehrmann
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07-10-2018, 06:18 AM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,427
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It just occurred to me that, by choosing a restricted application with spousal, I have delayed starting the full Medicare increase. So, hold harmless has been based on COLA increases on my small spousal benefit instead of the larger benefit. Had I taken my own benefit at full retirement I probably would have already been paying the full part B increase. As it is, I am still paying $10 less than full premium. I wonder if they will claw back the difference when I switch to my age 70 benefit or just leave the past as is and start over with part B premium amounts.
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