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Old 02-15-2013, 08:24 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by kyounge1956 View Post
What about this option on the My Portfolio tab
Isn't this a form of Monte Carlo simulation? Or if not, how does it differ?
Ahh, indeed it does - I never even noticed that, thanks for pointing it out. But like REWahoo just said, I really have no interest in it, and that's probably why I overlooked it. I should have said the defaults of FIRECALC are not Monte Carlo.

I also agree with what samclem just posted about other country data. But now I'm just imagining taking the worst data across the worst time period of the worst of any/all industrial countries... It makes sense, but I think I just hit my limit on the logic/emotional scale! If I did that, I'd probably never retire! I'm officially sticking my head in the sand - I can't hear you! I'm happy, don't confuse me with the facts!

More seriously, I guess in that case, and the case where our future is worse than any past FIRECALC scenario, I'll resign myself with the fact that we are all gonna be in a bad way, but conservative estimates for WR will still put us ahead of most of the pack. 'Success' is all kind of relative anyhow. Unless we turn to an ammo/MRE economy - then I'm screwed. Oh well, it's been a fun ride up till now!

-ERD50
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Old 02-15-2013, 09:41 AM   #22
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(snip) it would be interesting to plop in a set of numbers for another modern, developed country and see how things turn out. That Permanent Portfolio idea might shine a bit brighter for me!
I don't know if you also visit the Bogleheads forums. There is a truly immense thread there about the Permanent Portfolio, and I believe that someone has done just that for the PP as it would be carried out in several of them, which as I recall used equities and government bonds for whatever country was being looked at. It's either in the original Permanent Portfolio thread or in the separate PP discussion group that was started by one of the participants in the thread on Bogleheads. You might find it of interest. I don't recall the exact results for any specific country but IIRC the Permanent Portfolio behaved more or less as predicted by Harry Browne in all or most of the countries that were looked at. There are also posts from people creating their own PP in other countries.
You might find it of interest.
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Old 02-15-2013, 09:52 AM   #23
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(snip)But now I'm just imagining taking the worst data across the worst time period of the worst of any/all industrial countries... It makes sense, but I think I just hit my limit on the logic/emotional scale! If I did that, I'd probably never retire!
Doomed! We're all doomed!

Quote:
I'm officially sticking my head in the sand - I can't hear you! I'm happy, don't confuse me with the facts!
lalalalalalala Sorry, did you say something? lalalalalala I can't hear you. Can I have some of your sand?

Quote:
More seriously, I guess in that case, and the case where our future is worse than any past FIRECALC scenario, I'll resign myself with the fact that we are all gonna be in a bad way, but conservative estimates for WR will still put us ahead of most of the pack. 'Success' is all kind of relative anyhow. Unless we turn to an ammo/MRE economy - then I'm screwed. Oh well, it's been a fun ride up till now!
-ERD50
that's one reason I bought a property with enough room for a good-sized garden. To me, a future worse than any past FIRECalc scenario means bad times harder and/or longer than the Great Depression, and in such circumstances the ability to produce some of one's own food regardless of cash flow might come in very handy indeed. If things degenerate to the ammo/MRE level, I expect I'd be toast also. I doubt that aging spinsters do well in such an economy.
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Old 02-15-2013, 05:37 PM   #24
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Doomed! We're all doomed!

lalalalalalala Sorry, did you say something? lalalalalala I can't hear you. Can I have some of your sand?


that's one reason I bought a property with enough room for a good-sized garden. To me, a future worse than any past FIRECalc scenario means bad times harder and/or longer than the Great Depression, and in such circumstances the ability to produce some of one's own food regardless of cash flow might come in very handy indeed. If things degenerate to the ammo/MRE level, I expect I'd be toast also. I doubt that aging spinsters do well in such an economy.
I think it's all moot. Rewahoo has demonstrated his power to summon the asteroid...
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