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Predicted I-bond rates?
Old 04-21-2004, 02:41 PM   #1
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Predicted I-bond rates?

I have scoured and googled all the usual sources for predictions about both parts of the I-bond rates that are expected for the May 1-Nov 1 period, but found nothing at all. Has anyone read any predictions?
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Re: Predicted I-bond rates?
Old 04-21-2004, 04:24 PM   #2
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Re: Predicted I-bond rates?

It shouldn't be too hard to predict. The monthly CPI numbers are available, so you just need to calculate the trailing 6-month inflation (currently about 1.2%, annualizes to 2.4%).

My guess is that the fixed rate is based on the trailing 6-month average of the 5-year TIPS, which would put it below 1%. In other words, I would buy the current issue rather than waiting for the new issue in May.
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Re: Predicted I-bond rates?
Old 05-07-2004, 11:03 PM   #3
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Re: Predicted I-bond rates?

Ahem. I just checked the new i-bond rates. In case anyone doubted my predictive powers...

Quote:
It shouldn't be too hard to predict. * The monthly CPI numbers are available, so you just need to calculate the trailing 6-month inflation (currently about 1.2%, annualizes to 2.4%).
The CPI increase turned out to be 1.19% (annualized to 2.38%).

Quote:
My guess is that the fixed rate is based on the trailing 6-month average of the 5-year TIPS, which would put it below 1%. * In other words, I would buy the current issue rather than waiting for the new issue in May.
They dropped the fixed rate to 1%.

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/com/comi0504.htm
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Re: Predicted I-bond rates?
Old 05-08-2004, 02:22 PM   #4
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Re: Predicted I-bond rates?

Looks like you guys are both right.

Now get along or we'll make ya talk about mortgages.
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Re: Predicted I-bond rates?
Old 05-08-2004, 03:52 PM   #5
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Re: Predicted I-bond rates?

Oh, I wasn't disagreeing with anybody. I was just clearing my throat so everybody would look over here and witness my Amazing Powers of Prediction (TM).

FWIW, I wouldn't buy i-bonds at these rates either. Maybe in November after both real rates and inflation have gone through the roof (and remember, you heard it here first!).
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Re: Predicted I-bond rates?
Old 05-08-2004, 06:08 PM   #6
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Re: Predicted I-bond rates?

If you made me take two mortgages, I'm afraid I'd be calling you something rather unpleasant
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Re: Predicted I-bond rates?
Old 05-08-2004, 10:13 PM   #7
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Re: Predicted I-bond rates?

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That's OK -- I won't be home--call me anything you like. :P
It sure as hell isnt going to be "shirley"...
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