Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-10-2006, 01:50 PM   #21
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 325
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

interesting. he raised the rate. Said there might be a pause, and BAM - nothing happened.
__________________

__________________
CybrMike is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-10-2006, 01:55 PM   #22
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 784
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

Like, OMG.. LOL!!!1

Of all the surprises in the world, it turned out to be that there wasn't a surprise. Big surprise...
__________________

__________________
Cool Dood is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-10-2006, 02:32 PM   #23
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by CybrMike
interesting. he raised the rate. Said there might be a pause, and BAM - nothing happened.
Actually, I didn't see anything about a pause.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-10-2006, 02:40 PM   #24
Moderator Emeritus
laurence's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,234
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

Some are interpreting his statement of "must absorb economic data" as they'll take a pause...
__________________
laurence is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-10-2006, 02:52 PM   #25
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laurence
Some are interpreting his statement of "must absorb economic data" as they'll take a pause...
Uh, OK. Well, when I look at the data (any/all of it) it screams "INFLATION!" to me. I'm not a Fed governor, but I don't imagine I am that far out in left field (for economists). What are they waiting for? $1000 gold? $8 gasoline? 10% CPI?
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-10-2006, 03:04 PM   #26
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cool Dood
Of all the surprises in the world, it turned out to be that there wasn't a surprise. Big surprise...
That, above all, is what the fed chairman sees as his main job: not to surprise anybody. The volatility of the markets has been very low since the fed discovered this secret formula. It doesn't matter what the news is, as long as everybody is expecting it.
__________________
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-10-2006, 03:10 PM   #27
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
That, above all, is what the fed chairman sees as his main job: not to surprise anybody.* * The volatility of the markets has been very low since the fed discovered this secret formula.* *It doesn't matter what the news is, as long as everybody is expecting it.
Pretty much true. I think over the last several years the Fed has gotten pretty good about telegraphing things. I am beginning to suspect that it has made them less effectve at fighting inflation, though.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-10-2006, 03:31 PM   #28
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,382
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
That, above all, is what the fed chairman sees as his main job: not to surprise anybody.* * The volatility of the markets has been very low since the fed discovered this secret formula.* *It doesn't matter what the news is, as long as everybody is expecting it.
Kind of like the formula for boiling a frog. Hey, she shot me, but I was expecting it, so no harm done.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-10-2006, 03:40 PM   #29
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
HFWR's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 12,964
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

With a lag of 1-2yrs before interest rate hikes work their way into the economy, it's only in hindsight that we see the results.
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-10-2006, 03:43 PM   #30
Moderator Emeritus
laurence's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,234
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

The system is stupid, there should be a transparent formula that everyone knows, that raises/lowers rates x amount when certain indicators reach key levels, so there is no more of this crazy crap shoot vegas betting. Uncertainty is expensive.
__________________
laurence is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-10-2006, 03:48 PM   #31
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
donheff's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 8,638
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
That, above all, is what the fed chairman sees as his main job: not to surprise anybody. The volatility of the markets has been very low since the fed discovered this secret formula. It doesn't matter what the news is, as long as everybody is expecting it.
I listened to an NPR program in the car today that described Bernicke as a believer in Fed transparency. Not that it will happen any time soon, but apparently he would prefer to work toward a system where the Fed generally followed rules and the rules were known to all. You could just read the numbers as they come out and determine for yourself what the Fed will do.
__________________
Every man is, or hopes to be, an Idler. -- Samuel Johnson
donheff is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-10-2006, 04:02 PM   #32
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Jay_Gatsby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,719
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Either that, or Elevator Ben declines to comment further to reporters because he is busy getting ready for a quail hunting trip with the Vice President.
Is that "quail" hunting...or "Quayle" hunting?
__________________
He had one of those rare smiles with a quality of eternal reassurance in it . . . It faced, or seemed to face, the whole external world for an instant and then concentrated on you with an irresistible prejudice in your favor. -- The Great Gatsby, F. Scott Fitzgerald
Jay_Gatsby is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-10-2006, 04:51 PM   #33
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 1,487
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

Quote:
there should be a transparent formula that everyone knows
for all practical purposes, there is one.* google "taylor rule". in spite of it, there's still some guessing as one must still read the tea leaves to determine the underlying rates of inflation and potential GDP, and navigate the inherent time lags.
__________________
d is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-10-2006, 04:56 PM   #34
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,616
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laurence
The system is stupid, there should be a transparent formula that everyone knows, that raises/lowers rates x amount when certain indicators reach key levels, so there is no more of this crazy crap shoot vegas betting. Uncertainty is expensive.
Great idea!

We could call it the "CPI"... no wait...
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-11-2006, 10:03 AM   #35
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,457
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

Hey, the market is having a good ol' selloff today!!

Can't I still get credit for my "sell on the news" prediction?

So it took a few hours for everyone to react!

Audrey
__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-11-2006, 10:06 AM   #36
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Hey, the market is having a good ol' selloff today!!

Can't I still get credit for my "sell on the news" prediction?

So it took a few hours for everyone to react!

Audrey
Definately making the puts I bought yesterday look like a smart move, although they are still out of the money. I wish it were otherwise, but I don't especially like what I see for the next 6 months or so.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-11-2006, 10:32 AM   #37
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Definately making the puts I bought yesterday look like a smart move...
Your MOVI pick is starting to look a little better today too.
__________________
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-11-2006, 01:53 PM   #38
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,382
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Definately making the puts I bought yesterday look like a smart move, although they are still out of the money.* I wish it were otherwise, but I don't especially like what I see for the next 6 months or so.
Hey Sweetie, we all know you are smart.* But enough of this "I wish it were otherwise..."

I've already spread goofer dust, and a little later I'm going to sacrifice a chicken so I can smear this little rubber bull on my desk with blood and feathers. So many false starts! I think the problem is that I haven’t been attentive enough to Ogún.

The righteous have waited too long, bring on the mayhem!!

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-11-2006, 02:09 PM   #39
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,616
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
The righteous have waited too long, bring on the mayhem!!
That sounds a lot more impressive than "Sell in May and go away"...
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Prediction for tomorrow
Old 05-11-2006, 02:20 PM   #40
Moderator Emeritus
laurence's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,234
Re: Prediction for tomorrow

(sigh) and I had gotten used to making money. I guess the market slowly realized Bernake promised nothing, and $75 oil isn't going away.
__________________

__________________
laurence is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Prediction: California Real Estate Sam Other topics 136 01-15-2009 11:44 PM
prediction of 2/27/07 newyorklady FIRE and Money 21 03-04-2007 01:45 PM
Federal Funds Rate Prediction Year-End 2006 Danny FIRE and Money 7 05-10-2006 06:24 PM
Prediction haha FIRE and Money 25 05-05-2006 12:12 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:35 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.