Prediction for tomorrow

[CybrMike]

interesting. he raised the rate. Said there might be a pause, and BAM - nothing happened.

[Cool Dood]

Like, OMG.. LOL!!!1

Of all the surprises in the world, it turned out to be that there wasn't a surprise. Big surprise...

[brewer12345]

Originally Posted by CybrMike

interesting. he raised the rate. Said there might be a pause, and BAM - nothing happened.

Actually, I didn't see anything about a pause.

[laurence]

Some are interpreting his statement of "must absorb economic data" as they'll take a pause...

[brewer12345]

Originally Posted by Laurence

Some are interpreting his statement of "must absorb economic data" as they'll take a pause...

Uh, OK. Well, when I look at the data (any/all of it) it screams "INFLATION!" to me. I'm not a Fed governor, but I don't imagine I am that far out in left field (for economists). What are they waiting for? $1000 gold? $8 gasoline? 10% CPI?

[wabmester]

Originally Posted by Cool Dood

Of all the surprises in the world, it turned out to be that there wasn't a surprise. Big surprise...

That, above all, is what the fed chairman sees as his main job: not to surprise anybody. The volatility of the markets has been very low since the fed discovered this secret formula. It doesn't matter what the news is, as long as everybody is expecting it.

[brewer12345]

Originally Posted by wab

That, above all, is what the fed chairman sees as his main job: not to surprise anybody.* * The volatility of the markets has been very low since the fed discovered this secret formula.* *It doesn't matter what the news is, as long as everybody is expecting it.

Pretty much true. I think over the last several years the Fed has gotten pretty good about telegraphing things. I am beginning to suspect that it has made them less effectve at fighting inflation, though.

[haha]

Originally Posted by wab

That, above all, is what the fed chairman sees as his main job: not to surprise anybody.* * The volatility of the markets has been very low since the fed discovered this secret formula.* *It doesn't matter what the news is, as long as everybody is expecting it.

Kind of like the formula for boiling a frog. Hey, she shot me, but I was expecting it, so no harm done.

Ha

[HFWR]

With a lag of 1-2yrs before interest rate hikes work their way into the economy, it's only in hindsight that we see the results.

[laurence]

The system is stupid, there should be a transparent formula that everyone knows, that raises/lowers rates x amount when certain indicators reach key levels, so there is no more of this crazy crap shoot vegas betting. Uncertainty is expensive.

[donheff]

Originally Posted by wab

That, above all, is what the fed chairman sees as his main job: not to surprise anybody. The volatility of the markets has been very low since the fed discovered this secret formula. It doesn't matter what the news is, as long as everybody is expecting it.

I listened to an NPR program in the car today that described Bernicke as a believer in Fed transparency. Not that it will happen any time soon, but apparently he would prefer to work toward a system where the Fed generally followed rules and the rules were known to all. You could just read the numbers as they come out and determine for yourself what the Fed will do.

[Jay_Gatsby]

Originally Posted by brewer12345

Either that, or Elevator Ben declines to comment further to reporters because he is busy getting ready for a quail hunting trip with the Vice President.

Is that "quail" hunting...or "Quayle" hunting?

[d]

there should be a transparent formula that everyone knows

for all practical purposes, there is one.* google "taylor rule". in spite of it, there's still some guessing as one must still read the tea leaves to determine the underlying rates of inflation and potential GDP, and navigate the inherent time lags.

[Nords]

Originally Posted by Laurence

The system is stupid, there should be a transparent formula that everyone knows, that raises/lowers rates x amount when certain indicators reach key levels, so there is no more of this crazy crap shoot vegas betting. Uncertainty is expensive.

Great idea!

We could call it the "CPI"... no wait...

[audreyh1]

Hey, the market is having a good ol' selloff today!!

Can't I still get credit for my "sell on the news" prediction?

So it took a few hours for everyone to react!

Audrey

[brewer12345]

Originally Posted by audreyh1

Hey, the market is having a good ol' selloff today!!

Can't I still get credit for my "sell on the news" prediction?

So it took a few hours for everyone to react!

Audrey

Definately making the puts I bought yesterday look like a smart move, although they are still out of the money. I wish it were otherwise, but I don't especially like what I see for the next 6 months or so.

[wabmester]

Originally Posted by brewer12345

Definately making the puts I bought yesterday look like a smart move...

Your MOVI pick is starting to look a little better today too.

[haha]

Originally Posted by brewer12345

Definately making the puts I bought yesterday look like a smart move, although they are still out of the money.* I wish it were otherwise, but I don't especially like what I see for the next 6 months or so.

Hey Sweetie, we all know you are smart.* But enough of this "I wish it were otherwise..."

I've already spread goofer dust, and a little later I'm going to sacrifice a chicken so I can smear this little rubber bull on my desk with blood and feathers. So many false starts! I think the problem is that I haven’t been attentive enough to Ogún.

The righteous have waited too long, bring on the mayhem!!

Ha

[Nords]

Originally Posted by HaHa

The righteous have waited too long, bring on the mayhem!!

That sounds a lot more impressive than "Sell in May and go away"...