Predictions for 2008?

[SecondCor521]

OK, what do you think the market will do in 2008?

Specify a percentage and which index or fund you want to measure your prediction against.

Me, I'll stick with +10.7% and VFINX.

2Cor521

[newguy88]

-5%

Recession is in the cards. Don't like it but I believe we are going to have to deal with its ugly visit sometime late summer.

[retire@40]

I'm guessing the S & P 500 will go up 12% in 2008.

Interest rates will not be going up. If anything, they will be going down. The housing problem will stabilize, we'll see a reduction in troop levels in Iraq, and oil prices will be the same or cheaper.

[OAG]

5.8%.

[Dawg52]

5%

[Robert the Red]

US dollar will continue to fall against Asian currencies, but will rise a little against the Euro in the second half of the year.

[audreyh1]

I'm going to take a wild contrarian guess that 2008 will be better than 2007, since a: 2007 wasn't so hot and b: so many people are expecting a recession.

+ 8%

Audrey

[JustCurious]

All of these predictions are useless without knowing what exactly they are predicting. Are you predicting the percentage increase in the S&P 500? The total return of the S&P 500? The total return of the total stock market as measured by what? The increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Index? The total return of the Dow? All of these numbers can vary by several percentage points.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustCurious All of these predictions are useless without knowing what exactly they are predicting. Are you predicting the percentage increase in the S&P 500? The total return of the S&P 500? The total return of the total stock market as measured by what? The increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Index? The total return of the Dow? All of these numbers can vary by several percentage points.

Just Curious - pick the benchmark!

Audrey

[rs0460a]

Don't care.

Just finished funding my Fidelity IMA (Income Management Account) for 2008 this morning.

Still have 3 years gross income remaining in MM accounts so I'm not going to be too concerned till 4 years from now ...

- Ron

[Notmuchlonger]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 I'm going to take a wild contrarian guess that 2008 will be better than 2007, since a: 2007 wasn't so hot and b: so many people are expecting a recession. + 8% Audrey

I was thinking that also.

[FinanceGeek]

I think that earnings will be fine in '08, and I don't see a recession, but I believe that US market multiples will contract in anticipation of single party government beginning in '09. I believe (and I believe the market believes) that divided government is the best form of government and leads to the most stable economic environment. So put me down for -5% on the S&P for 2008.

[JustCurious]

Quote:

Originally Posted by FinanceGeek So put me down for -5% on the S&P for 2008.

Are you referring to the percentage change in the S&P 500 index, or, the total return of the S&P 500 index as measured by a particular index fund? This poll is useless.

The S&P 500 started 2007 at 1418.30, and ended at 1468.36. That's an increase of 3.53%. By contrast, Vanguard's S&P 500 index fund had a total return of 5.39%, which is almost 2% higher. So what are you predicting??

[FinanceGeek]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustCurious Are you referring to the percentage change in the S&P 500 index, or, the total return of the S&P 500 index as measured by a particular index fund? This poll is useless. The S&P 500 started 2007 at 1418.30, and ended at 1468.36. That's an increase of 3.53%. By contrast, Vanguard's S&P 500 index fund had a total return of 5.39%, which is almost 2% higher. So what are you predicting??

I'm predicting a percentage change in the S&P Index itself of -5%, the total return would be less negative due to dividends.

[DallasGuy]

S&p 500 -5.5%

[goodguy1_64]

Spy, + 14.21 %

[Spanky]

Wilshire and others: Wilshire 5000 Stock Index Forecast

Six Month Stock Index Forecasts

[Cb]

S&P 500 index +7%