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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-16-2005, 10:51 AM   #61
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

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I talked to a 'semi retired electrican/schrimper'
Shrimper? Is his name "gump"?
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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-16-2005, 05:30 PM   #62
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

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[quote from article:] Those programs face huge financial strains with the looming retirement of 78 million baby boomers in 2008.
All of them are going to retire in 2008?

I think I have a new plan: I'm going to quit now, be a bum for 3 years and then bask in the enormous increase in salaries caused by sudden huge increase in demand and dearth of available labor. It shouldn't matter if I'm in IT, pool cleaning or cabanna boy; I'll be a millionaire in a few short years.

Or maybe they are overstating the event....

On a more serious note, I was surprised to hear Bush propose the tax ceiling hike. I had understood he was absolutely not going to raise taxes for SS. I guess this doesn't count as raising taxes. Not that I'm complaining, I think it's the right way for a tweak for now.
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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-16-2005, 05:55 PM   #63
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

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All of them are going to retire in 2008?
At least one of them is retiring in 2005.

72 days and counting...

REW
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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-16-2005, 08:41 PM   #64
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

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All of them are going to retire in 2008?

. . . .
Yes. They will give their notice on the first monday in March at 12:07 PM Eastern Time and march out in unison exactly 2 weeks later.
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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-16-2005, 09:29 PM   #65
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

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*They will give their notice on the first monday in March at 12:07 PM Eastern Time and march out in unison exactly 2 weeks later.
That should be an interesting sight. And if all goes well, I hope to be already retired and watching the show!
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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-17-2005, 02:49 AM   #66
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

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On a more serious note, I was surprised to hear Bush propose the tax ceiling hike. I had understood he was absolutely not going to raise taxes for SS. I guess this doesn't count as raising taxes. Not that I'm complaining, I think it's the right way for a tweak for now.
Glad to here it too...read the other day that this one change would fix the problem for another 75 years...
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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-17-2005, 06:18 AM   #67
 
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

Re. "this one change would fix the problem for another
75 years". If only we could get them to stop with that
"tweak".

JG
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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-17-2005, 06:26 AM   #68
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

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Yes. They will give their notice on the first monday in March at 12:07 PM Eastern Time and march out in unison exactly 2 weeks later.
Thanks. I need to warn Mom and Dad. Both are boomers but neither are prepared for retirement in 2008; we have a lot of work to do to get them back on schedule!
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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-17-2005, 08:19 AM   #69
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

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Thanks. I need to warn Mom and Dad. Both are boomers but neither are prepared for retirement in 2008; we have a lot of work to do to get them back on schedule!
BMJ,

They'll also need to get the official boomer arm bands and boomer secret decoder ring. Send me $19.95 plus postage and handling and I can take care of that for you.
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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-17-2005, 11:13 AM   #70
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

I've got them for $17.50, and for my first 500 customers I'll include a Ron Popeil device that makes julienne radishes!

(Dont you just love capitalism?)

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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-17-2005, 08:56 PM   #71
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

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I've got them for $17.50, and for my first 500 customers I'll include a Ron Popeil device that makes julienne radishes!

(Dont you just love capitalism?)
D@mn knockoffs.
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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-18-2005, 07:40 AM   #72
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

Don't get too excited about removing the SS cap
altogether. According to John Snow, it would only
push the problem out another 6 years.

Cheers,

Charlie
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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-18-2005, 02:15 PM   #73
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

Well a cap is a cap. The American Academy of Actuaries says that raising the cap by 1/4 solves the long term problems by 26% and eliminating the cap solves 77% of the problem. The following pdf file shows the effect of several fixes but you will need to blow it up to read it. It is poor quality.
http://www.actuary.org/pdf/Actuaries...for_Reform.pdf

Even AARP admits the cap alone won't get the current model to 100%.

By the way, private accounts move the problem up by 6 years. (The surplus would be needed in 2012 instead of 2018.)
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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-18-2005, 02:39 PM   #74
 
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

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By the way, private accounts move the problem up by 6 years. (The surplus would be needed in 2012 instead of 2018.)
That's what's funny about the private accounts solution. It's like the Fire Department showing up with Gasoline in their hoses.
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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-18-2005, 02:54 PM   #75
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

Gather your children closely and listen.

Raising the cap right now increases the surplus which become more IOUs. WHAT??

This is a half solution at best. Raise more money for Bush to spend and create more debt for future tax payers.

Now hug your children and tell them you are sorry; John Galt elected the man.
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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-18-2005, 03:14 PM   #76
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

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Gather your children closely and listen.

Raising the cap right now increases the surplus which become more IOUs. WHAT??

This is a half solution at best. Raise more money for Bush to spend and create more debt for future tax payers.

Now hug your children and tell them you are sorry; John Galt elected the man.
This one is kind of short on rationality.
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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-18-2005, 03:26 PM   #77
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

How so? Right now we are creating a surplus in the SS fund. If we increase the amount of money going into that surplus and spend it now, we will leave more debt in the fund to be redeemed.

How do you see this differently? The point is that it might be better to invest this money somewhere besides in governement entities.
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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-19-2005, 02:05 PM   #78
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

Tadpole,

- Who is going to do the investment picking?
-- Individuals? I like that! But I'd guess you'd be opposed to this tenet of the "ownership society", as President Bush has called it.
-- The government? This would be government ownership of the means of production--a construct with a bloody history and a poor track recordfor performance. Aside from this concern, can you imagine the wrangling over which companies are appropriate for these govt investments? (Tobacco? Booze? Non-union labor? Defense contractors? Companies who've outsourced work overseas)) By the time they finished, there might be one company deemed suitable (probably a manufacturer of 100% organic hypoallergenic baby food--with small manufacturing plants in every congrssional district).


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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-19-2005, 03:45 PM   #79
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

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- Who is going to do the investment picking?
No there are no individuals involved since this is just a higher collection of the payroll tax. That was precisely my point. The government spends the money today and future taxpayers pay the money back when it is needed for SS benefits.

The money, once collected, must be invested somewhere until it is needed. Is there somewhere the government can invest the money that will not require future taxpayers to raise taxes to pay the liability?

Don't get me wrong. I want the SS system to be fixed but putting money into government entities is part of what has us thinking we need an immediate fix.

What is a lock box?

Combined with private accounts the question I pose may be mute since the extra money might not even cover liabilities. There are no numbers yet.
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Re: Predictions - SS reform
Old 02-20-2005, 05:36 PM   #80
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Re: Predictions - SS reform

Tadpole,
Quote:
Is there somewhere the government can invest the money that will not require future taxpayers to raise taxes to pay the liability?
- I think their options are about the same as yours and mine:
-- 1)US govt securities (what they are doing now)
-- 2)Corporate stocks
-- 3)Corporate bonds
-- 4)Commodities

- You don't like the US Govt investing in option #1 (due to low returns)
- Options 2 and 3 come with the same issues I noted above--the US govt helping some companies, hurting others--and all the baggage of govt ownership of "private" companies (or their debts).
- Commodities: Maybe we could go back to the gold standard? I think it best not to ask the govt to dabble in commodities.

- Hey--what about foreign currencies? Uncle Sam could make speculation in foreign currencies an official, above-board policy. Now THAT would be a wild ride. I'll bet a lot of countries that have been talking poorly about us would be a little nicer to 'ole Uncle Sam if we did.

Nope--the answer isn't for the US government to get a better rate of return. It sounds good, but the US government can't effectively do this as you and I can. And it shouldn't.

Quote:
What is a lock box?
Just a phrase.


Regards,

samclem
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