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Old 04-15-2013, 02:27 PM   #41
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When moves as big as Friday's and today's happen, it usually pays to wait and let things settle down.
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Old 04-15-2013, 03:11 PM   #42
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I wonder if, as others put it, you are trying to catch a falling knife....

I would wait until the knife hits something before buying...
+1

I have a rather small allocation to the miners (about 2%) but wouldn't mind going as high as 5% at a more attractive entry point... but not going to catch a falling knife at this point.
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Old 04-15-2013, 03:13 PM   #43
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Indeed most of the countries that are in serious trouble, Cyprus (13 million tons), Italy (2,451 million tons), Spain and Portugal (383 Million tons) have most of their holdings of reserves in gold. The Cyprus decisions as reported in the London Financial Times to sell 10 million of the 13 million tons they hold is most likely being viewed as a first step and getting out of the way of slow moving governments is easy for panicky rich guys.
I think you are off by several orders of magnitude here. I don't think Cyprus holds $500 trillion in gold.

I think there is only about 350,000 tons mined in all of earth's history.

Maybe you meant ounces instead of tons?
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Old 04-15-2013, 03:16 PM   #44
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I think you are off by several orders of magnitude here. I don't think Cyprus holds $500 trillion in gold.

I think there is only about 350,000 tons mined in all of earth's history.

Maybe you meant ounces instead of tons?
Yes I meant tons not millions of tons
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Old 04-15-2013, 03:20 PM   #45
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+1

I have a rather small allocation to the miners (about 2%) but wouldn't mind going as high as 5% at a more attractive entry point... but not going to catch a falling knife at this point.

I am happy that I sold my miners fund a week or so ago... I had lost a lot of money on it and did not think it was going to be good going forward... pure luck on this drop...
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Old 04-15-2013, 03:21 PM   #46
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I plan on using the 180 grain .40s&p to protect said stash of gold and food
Definitely to protect the food. Gold will be not be much use when you are hungry. I never understood why gold is worth much. It really doesn't have much industrial worth. Only good for trinklets.
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Old 04-15-2013, 03:25 PM   #47
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I'm betting that gold will drop to $600-700 by 2015

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Old 04-15-2013, 03:40 PM   #48
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Gold now down $155 today (inc. after-market).
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Old 04-15-2013, 04:34 PM   #49
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I have some gold and silver so it's a bit disheartening to see the prices drop so fast. However I have had mine for quite a few years and the prices would really have to crash to get to the price I paid for my precious metals. It could certainly happen though. Hold on for the wild ride!
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Old 04-15-2013, 04:53 PM   #50
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My boss just came by to tell me he told me so...

He has been predicting a drop in gold and silver for a few months... he thinks gold is going to drop below $1,000... he said the hard part is to predict when it will go back up when people start seeing that the current market / gvmt spending can not continue as is....
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Old 04-15-2013, 05:45 PM   #51
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My boss just came by to tell me he told me so...

He has been predicting a drop in gold and silver for a few months... he thinks gold is going to drop below $1,000... he said the hard part is to predict when it will go back up when people start seeing that the current market / gvmt spending can not continue as is....

you know the old saying "alarmists are always right, it just depends upon which one!"
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Old 04-15-2013, 05:49 PM   #52
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Morningtstar is quite bearish looking for a $1100 price based on the marginal production price of gold miners.

I don't have any gold, I am thinking $1200 might be a good entry point.
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Old 04-15-2013, 11:07 PM   #53
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I'm betting that gold will drop to $600-700 by 2015

If this happens, only a few miners will cover their cash costs, and none will cover their all-in costs.

Ha
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Old 04-15-2013, 11:20 PM   #54
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We've had a small allocation to silver for several years*. Added a bit more silver today even if the only justification is that it looks cheaper than it has for some time - which is not entirely rational.


* and a few ounces of gold in a safe deposit box
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Old 04-15-2013, 11:45 PM   #55
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Most of what I heard & read puts the target @ $1200, estimating that to be the cash cost production. Anything below that price puts producers in jeopardy of going under.

Cash Cost vs. Marginal Cost | eHow.com

gold $1200 - Google Search

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Old 04-16-2013, 07:53 AM   #56
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Don't have any gold or silver. It was too high before I considered buying. At this point, I am holding off as this could be a multi-year trend down. I tend to look at the potential downside. That and the fact there are other things to invest in that pay me more to hold. Gold ran up fairly quickly when one considers where it had been prior.

I sold my commodity ETF 2 weeks ago.
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Old 04-16-2013, 08:50 AM   #57
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A interesting paper from GMO on gold prices just published. It looks at the impact from emerging market consumers, particularly India and China, something GMO has highlighted in the past as an important factor in the decade long appreciation. The conclusion

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The concept of gold as a general insurance policy against systemic risks is dangerous, especially today. Gold prices are driven both by global monetary policy and emerging markets consumers. Emerging markets have been a significant positive force on gold prices for such a long time that itís easy to forget that their impact on gold can very well go in both directions. Gold prices not only have extensive exposure to China and India, but their exposure to these countries is pro-cyclical by nature. Given both the cyclical and structural challenges the Chinese and Indian economies are facing, we believe the risks to gold prices today are particularly high.
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Old 04-16-2013, 08:59 AM   #58
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A interesting paper from GMO on gold prices...
Wow. I knew amazing things were being done with Genetically Modified Organisms but I had no idea they had evolved to the point they were publishing economic papers...
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Old 04-16-2013, 01:35 PM   #59
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A interesting paper from GMO on gold prices just published. It looks at the impact from emerging market consumers, particularly India and China, something GMO has highlighted in the past as an important factor in the decade long appreciation. The conclusion
Thanks for posting this , Michael. I read it, and it is definitely interesting and to the point of what drives gold prices.

GMO is a high quality source for sure. Jeremy says buy natural gas, copper or copper producers, and phosphate producers. Which last basically means buy Morocco, so it is not easily done.

I hope if anyone on the board is in the copper industry, or knowledgeable about copper, he or she will post about copper producers.

Ha
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Old 04-16-2013, 03:40 PM   #60
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Gary Shilling, who has been calling the deflation and debt issues for over a decade, has suggested staying with US and Canadian based resource companies and avoiding the emerging market country's resources.

Looking at the GMO resources fund, even though Grantham's view is petroleum will not be a problem and potash the critical resource, the fund portfolio is mostly petroleum. Looking at a fund I have invested in the past, Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining, the top 4 holdings (1/3 of the total portfolio) look like the implementation of Grantham's resource story: Hochschild Mining (gold and silver), K+S Aktiengesellschaft (fertilizers), Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (Potash) and Umicore (Recycling)
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