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Old 11-07-2018, 10:26 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider View Post
Can you please point us to some credible documents that explain this?
USGrant beat me to it. The 2034 and 77% (or thereabout) numbers have been published many places, most importantly in the annual SS trustees report. As to the inevitability of a reduction in payments once the trust fund is depleted, I'd have to find a source, but I'm confident in the information. Look at it this way -- where else would the money come from? They can't just pay it out of general funds.
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Old 11-07-2018, 10:49 AM   #22
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OK, but does it count the money employers put in as part of YOUR contribution? If not, then you need to double employees contributions amount to see whether they're getting back more than they put in. I.e., the employer money doesn't go in w/o you contributing first/also.
By the meaning of the words used, your contribution is yours, and agrees with what the article is saying. If you choose to add in employers' contributions, and calculate, then you could say the payout does not exceed employer + employee contributions over lifetime. How about we also consider the total payout to contributor and spouse? These are all considerations that will no doubt mean something when revamping SS.
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Old 11-07-2018, 11:50 AM   #23
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OK, but does it count the money employers put in as part of YOUR contribution? If not, then you need to double employees contributions amount to see whether they're getting back more than they put in. I.e., the employer money doesn't go in w/o you contributing first/also.
Yes, their analysis counted both employee and employer contributions.

If you take the sume of employer and employee contribtions from page 3 of your SS statement and divide it by the monthly benefit on page 1, how many months do you get?

I get 93 months (7.75 years) for me and 21 months (1.7 years) for DW.... but in fairness those numbers should be multiplied by 80% to reflect that about 20% of what is paid relates to disability benefits.... that would make it 6.2 years for me and 1.4 years for DW... in both cases assuming that we draw at 66 and 2 months.

You obviously have it in your mind that SS is a rip-off for you, so please don't let facts cloud your view.
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Old 11-07-2018, 03:05 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by Crabby Mike View Post
USGrant beat me to it. The 2034 and 77% (or thereabout) numbers have been published many places, most importantly in the annual SS trustees report. As to the inevitability of a reduction in payments once the trust fund is depleted, I'd have to find a source, but I'm confident in the information. Look at it this way -- where else would the money come from? They can't just pay it out of general funds.
Something tells me this will get fixed before 2034 rolls around lest the 18,327 threads here on when to take SS become moot.

Just think of all the recalculation discussions on this forum!!!!! Excel sheets burning up trying new formulae!

Been hearing of the demise of SS since I started working 45 years ago.
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Old 11-07-2018, 03:11 PM   #25
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Thanks for this. I still think it is encouraging considering all the commentary and speculation we have all had here over the years about SS.
Bad news sells better in the news, so def gets more attention for the sensationalism. Just look at how much doom and gloom there is vs. rainbows and unicorns on a daily basis. Lopsided.
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Old 11-07-2018, 03:25 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Crabby Mike View Post
USGrant beat me to it. The 2034 and 77% (or thereabout) numbers have been published many places, most importantly in the annual SS trustees report. As to the inevitability of a reduction in payments once the trust fund is depleted, I'd have to find a source, but I'm confident in the information. Look at it this way -- where else would the money come from? They can't just pay it out of general funds.
And just a reminder... if you use opensocialsecurity.com and checked the advanced options, one of the options is whether or not to include a haircut, and if so, beginning when and how much.... so you can see the impact on your benefits and EPV of benefits.
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Old 11-07-2018, 03:42 PM   #27
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I think many of us accept the "facts" as presented and marketed too quickly. I am encouraged that the problem will be solved.
Which of these "facts" do you reject?
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Old 11-07-2018, 06:22 PM   #28
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Which of these "facts" do you reject?
I don't think the poster was referring to the facts presented in the OP. But maybe I am wrong.
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Old 11-07-2018, 06:31 PM   #29
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This ignores both the time value of money and inflation over decades.
FWIW, the SS actuaries do a bunch of calculations on this every year. The most recent paper is here. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/ran7/an2017-7.pdf

A number over 1.00 means that people appear to earn more than the average rate on longer treasuries. A number under 1.00, the opposite.

The tables show the expected trends.
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Old 11-07-2018, 08:10 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider View Post
Thanks for this. I still think it is encouraging considering all the commentary and speculation we have all had here over the years about SS.
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Originally Posted by target2019 View Post
I think many of us accept the "facts" as presented and marketed too quickly. I am encouraged that the problem will be solved.
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Which of these "facts" do you reject?
Wasn't rejecting anything. That is a word you introduced.

"Facts" was simply me expanding on ShokWaveRider's reference to commentary and speculation.
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Old 11-09-2018, 08:30 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider View Post
Can you please point us to some credible documents that explain this?
I happened to look at my "Your Social Security Statement" this morning and noticed that it is also right there in bold print on page 2, so no need to plow through the Trustees' report.

Quote:
* Your estimated benefits are based on current law. Congress has made changes to the law in the past and
can do so at any time. The law governing benefit amounts may change because, by 2034, the payroll taxes
collected will be enough to pay only about 77 percent of scheduled benefits.
You can download your statement at www.ssa.gov/myaccount
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Old 11-09-2018, 09:19 AM   #32
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* Your estimated benefits are based on current law. Congress has made changes to the law in the past and
can do so at any time. The law governing benefit amounts may change because, by 2034, the payroll taxes
collected will be enough to pay only about 77 percent of scheduled benefits.

I already took the money and ran at 62 so I'm just a casual observer but curious:
Has anyone run numbers on how this impacts the "62, vs FRA vs 70" debate? Let's say if one were waiting for age 70 in 2028 or so.

Don't want to kick a hornet's nest here as I do believe this will be resolved beforehand.
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Old 11-09-2018, 09:25 AM   #33
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Has anyone run numbers on how this impacts the "62, vs FRA vs 70" debate? Let's say if one were waiting for age 70 in 2028 or so.

Don't want to kick a hornet's nest here as I do believe this will be resolved beforehand.
So, you’re suggesting adding a new variable to this debate might bring greater clarity or basis for agreement? Your optismsm is an inspiration to us all.
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Old 11-09-2018, 09:30 AM   #34
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I didn't see anything new. It basically says we're OK now, but something has to change by 2034 or we will get 77% of projected benefits.

If anything I'm disheartened that no is planning to address it anytime soon, as the sooner the shortfall is addressed, the less painful it will be for payers and payees - third rail yada yada, thanks to voters, not politicians. Anyone who doesn't consider both payers and payees is being grossly unfair IMO, and AARP has been notoriously and selfishly biased toward payees (their mission), which is why I won't have anything to do with them. I think the pain should be shared, I can't imagine seniors would insist on full benefits as it's their children and grandchildren who would have to make up the difference, and they probably won't see benefits exactly as they are today. But we've all beat that to death.

I built my plan on no SS, though I expect to see 70% of projected benefits. If it's more, gravy...
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Old 11-09-2018, 09:43 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by marko View Post
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* Your estimated benefits are based on current law. Congress has made changes to the law in the past and
can do so at any time. The law governing benefit amounts may change because, by 2034, the payroll taxes
collected will be enough to pay only about 77 percent of scheduled benefits.

I already took the money and ran at 62 so I'm just a casual observer but curious:
Has anyone run numbers on how this impacts the "62, vs FRA vs 70" debate? Let's say if one were waiting for age 70 in 2028 or so.

Don't want to kick a hornet's nest here as I do believe this will be resolved beforehand.
You are more optimistic than I am. I see this as continuing to be used as a wedge issue for the foreseeable future. It will be a big issue in the 2032 presidential campaign with the winner claiming a “mandate”, even if s/he wins by two votes. Then we’ll cobble together a fix. I wouldn’t rule out a couple of short term band aides where we pay the shortfall from general funds for a period of time. Like how we raise the debt ceiling every so often.
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Old 11-09-2018, 09:44 AM   #36
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So, you’re suggesting adding a new variable to this debate might bring greater clarity or basis for agreement? Your optismsm is an inspiration to us all.
Well, things were getting a little dull around here......

Sorry. Maybe I was having one of those "open mouth laptop, insert foot" moments.
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Old 11-09-2018, 09:52 AM   #37
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You are more optimistic than I am.
You're referring to my belief that this will get resolved. I don't want to hijack the thread so I'll just say this and end it here:

I've been hearing about SS being in grave jeopardy since I started working almost 50 years ago. Even back in the 50's as a kid I remember my dad saying that it was unsustainable. Yet, here we are with me going into my fifth year of benefits.

Whether a true fix or another kicking the can down the road, it just seems to be one of those things that will keep going; it's just too valuable and ingrained into our culture at this time.
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Old 11-09-2018, 09:58 AM   #38
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You're referring to my belief that this will get resolved. I don't want to hijack the thread so I'll just say this and end it here:

I've been hearing about SS being in grave jeopardy since I started working almost 50 years ago. Even back in the 50's as a kid I remember my dad saying that it was unsustainable. Yet, here we are with me going into my fifth year of benefits.

Whether a true fix or another kicking the can down the road, it just seems to be one of those things that will keep going; it's just to valuable and ingrained into our culture at this time.
Agreed! It will be unsustainably sustained indefinitely! And that’s ok.
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Old 11-09-2018, 09:59 AM   #39
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You're referring to my belief that this will get resolved. I don't want to hijack the thread so I'll just say this and end it here:

I've been hearing about SS being in grave jeopardy since I started working almost 50 years ago. Even back in the 50's as a kid I remember my dad saying that it was unsustainable. Yet, here we are with me going into my fifth year of benefits.

Whether a true fix or another kicking the can down the road, it just seems to be one of those things that will keep going; it's just to valuable and ingrained into our culture at this time.
+1 just a question of what %
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Old 11-09-2018, 10:06 AM   #40
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Well, things were getting a little dull around here......

Sorry. Maybe I was having one of those "open mouth laptop, insert foot" moments.
Just poking a little fun. Actually, what we need in that debate is an economist, who will solve the whole thing with just three words. "Let us assume ..."


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Agreed! It will be unsustainably sustained indefinitely! And that’s ok.
Did you ever work in marketing?
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