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Pull trigger next year, or in two years?
Old 06-16-2019, 05:43 PM   #1
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Pull trigger next year, or in two years?

This is a follow up to my four year old (this week) "Hi I Am..." post found here:
<original post>.

Well, my four years are up this week, so I thought an update would be appropriate:

We are half retired: wife retired a couple years ago but I am still working.
We did sell the house at the peak of the GTA housing market in spring 2017 and bought a much nicer and cheaper house on a couple acres outside outside the GTA (still in Ontario but several hours from GTA), and I took a new job in the new town.

So now I am questioning WHEN I should retire.
I could probably retire now but I feel working two more years would be prudent.
And I don't really mind: like the job...just don't like the lack of free time for myself and the early rising.

So the portfolio is in good shape, and I run numbers through FIRECALC assuming:
  • die at age 90
  • retire in two years (when we are both age 58)
  • no further savings
  • retirement spending $7,500 per month (based on income splitting, and using E&Y 2019 tax calculator rates)
  • using 45% equity allocation (which is where we are at currently)
  • Government pensions as follows (total for both):
    • OAS starting at 65: ~ $14k/yr
    • CPP starting at 70: ~ $33k/yr
The results:
100% success with lowest portfolio value of over $600k!
Heck even if I retire 1 year from now instead of two (and accounting for slightly smaller CPP), I am still 100% with a minimum portfolio size at age 90 of over $300k!
And these are somewhat conservative numbers because some of the portfolio is not taxed as income on withdrawal (TFSAs and non-registered stuff).
Also doesn't count value of house: could take out $500k from that and still get a nice house in town with the remainder.

I think I could tolerate two more years nicely, especially if I took a leave next summer to get an extra month or two off for a nice vacation!

I guess I thought an update would be nice, and I don't really have much in the way of questions here! But would appreciate any comments on the situation and the analysis.
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Old 06-16-2019, 07:14 PM   #2
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Sounds like "two more years" is a good plan for you!

And if it turns out not to be as good as you expect, you can always change your mind.

Good luck!
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Old 06-17-2019, 04:14 AM   #3
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Anytime you are at 100% then I suggest you go. You can never replace the extra time in RE.
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Old 06-17-2019, 08:23 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrRoy View Post
Anytime you are at 100% then I suggest you go. You can never replace the extra time in RE.
Yes, this! More money will not buy more time. Go for it now!
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Old 06-17-2019, 09:02 AM   #5
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I would also say go for it now, especially since your wife is retired. I am never bored in retirement even while sitting here typing.....
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Old 06-17-2019, 09:49 AM   #6
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Those pensions give you a nice base. So whether one or two more years, it looks like you are in good shape. Sometimes it's easier sticking it out a little longer when you know you don't have to and that you have the freedom to stop whenever you want.
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