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Old 02-02-2011, 08:24 PM   #21
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"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face." - Mike Tyson
I think I would still have a plan if I was conscious.
Get tha hell out of the ring !!!
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Old 02-03-2011, 09:20 AM   #22
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Market Timing in a Nutshell

And here's the rebalancer's version of that graph:

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Old 02-03-2011, 09:30 AM   #23
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Old 02-03-2011, 10:27 AM   #24
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slingshot - sorry that I don't know your history, but...when did you get out of the market, and why? Did you sell when the DOW was at 14000, or closer to 6500? I am not sure whether to think that you ARE market timing, or if you are just risk averse; if you've been sitting on the sidelines for the almost doubling of the market since the bottom, I am sorry for the missed opportunities.

I, and I am sure many on this formum, have been DCA'ing and rebalancing all along over the last few years. I was plowing money in at 14,000, was still doing it at 6,500, and continue to do it at 12,000. It has allowed me to get back on track with my goals and regain all I had lost plus quite a bit.
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Old 02-03-2011, 11:43 AM   #25
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Took a portion of cash and invested the minimums in several VG index funds today. AND THEN I FREAKED OUT! I don't want to be a market timer, but I'm sure that there is going to be a pull back...
My idea was that I wanted to begin DCA with my Jan 2011 deposits. I believe in the theory but hated to do it when the markets are so high
You first should have an investment strategy that takes into account your goals, risk profile and life cycle.

Looking for advise from a person who does not share your profile is a mistake.

Stock markets do not only go in one direction. Take a look a the Nekkie.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^N225+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^n225;ra nge=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=o n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Go to the Max view - starting in 1984 - the link might not work.
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Old 02-03-2011, 12:01 PM   #26
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Stock markets do not only go in one direction. Take a look a the Nekkie.
With all due respect, anyone with a pulse and is even remotely attentive has lived through the last 10 years and knows this quite well. I don't think anyone claims that markets **only** go up over time.
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Old 02-03-2011, 12:21 PM   #27
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With all due respect, anyone with a pulse and is even remotely attentive has lived through the last 10 years and knows this quite well. I don't think anyone claims that markets **only** go up over time.
With even more due respect - I did not say that *** anyone *** did claim that.

I am making that point in consideration of the threads that have been closed recently.
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Old 02-03-2011, 01:10 PM   #28
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back story, from the, hello I'm forum: We had always sent the same amount of money every month to our mutual funds, DCA, but when we fired our FA, he put is all in cash-therefore, we had to choose a point to get back in, making us market timers for the first time ever!
We had decided that Feb 1 was a deadline, as we now had January's $$ to put someplace, so we took a portion of the cash, bought the index funds and now I'm DCA again.
My tremble was from buying in at the highest market in 2 years.
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Old 02-03-2011, 02:08 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
back story, from the, hello I'm forum: We had always sent the same amount of money every month to our mutual funds, DCA, but when we fired our FA, he put is all in cash-therefore, we had to choose a point to get back in, making us market timers for the first time ever!
We had decided that Feb 1 was a deadline, as we now had January's $$ to put someplace, so we took a portion of the cash, bought the index funds and now I'm DCA again.
My tremble was from buying in at the highest market in 2 years.
Slingshot,

I'd still say you are more readjusting than market timing.

For example, maybe you invested in 3 index funds w/Vanguard (Min $3000 to open the accounts). That's $9000 from your cash to the funds. Then maybe you set up your accounts for automatic exchange (DCA'ing made easy) from your cash to index funds each month, same amount, same interval. That doesn't sound like market timing to me, but setting up for DCA'ing.

On the otherhand, say if after consolidating all your accounts into cash and you had $100K in cash, but plop a good portion of that into equities thinking now is a high. However, you consider pulling out of the market when you think equities are going down. That I'd call market timing.

As another example, when I reallocate at the start of the year. My equity versus fixed income percentages may be out of whack. Last year was a good year for stocks. So by rebalancing, if I put $20K from my stock index to bonds, even though it's a high for now, I wouldn't call that market timing, but just reallocating. I'm still moving a chunk of money from one asset class to another. But that's only to rebalance, not to time the market.
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