Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Pulled the trigger
Old 02-02-2011, 04:18 PM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
slingshot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Scottsdale
Posts: 57
Pulled the trigger

Took a portion of cash and invested the minimums in several VG index funds today. AND THEN I FREAKED OUT! I don't want to be a market timer, but I'm sure that there is going to be a pull back...
My idea was that I wanted to begin DCA with my Jan 2011 deposits. I believe in the theory but hated to do it when the markets are so high
__________________

__________________
slingshot is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 02-02-2011, 04:22 PM   #2
Moderator Emeritus
Rich_by_the_Bay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 8,827
Do you think you'll care 5 years from now what the market did today?
__________________

__________________
Rich
San Francisco Area
ESR'd March 2010. FIRE'd January 2011.

As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
Rich_by_the_Bay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 04:22 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MasterBlaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,359
Just think about what you can say at cocktail parties in a decade or so.

"Oh yeah <swirling your glass> , I was smart enough to invest in the markets when the Dow was only at 12k! That's only 10 percent of what it is now ! Now pour me another Dubonet !"
__________________
MasterBlaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 04:34 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
powerplay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 1,380
Hmmm, so you think there will be a pull back soon. I am ready to put some more $$'s into Vanguard but maybe I should wait for this pull back now.
__________________
powerplay is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 04:41 PM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 102
Back when it was in 11.5k range, I was hesitating whether to go in or not. I went in some and had some in cash. Went down to 11k from there, then went in some more. Market crept up to 11.8k and then kicking myselt not getting all in at 11.5k. Market hit 12k and didn't get in. Went down to 11.8k, then went in. Now it's at 12k and I have 5% in cash waiting for the next pull back.

Bottom line, market is unpredictable and I look at google finance way too much.
__________________
HatePayingTaxes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 04:52 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MasterBlaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,359
Market Timing in a Nutshell
Attached Images
File Type: jpg market-timing.jpg (190.9 KB, 120 views)
__________________
MasterBlaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 04:54 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,979
Quote:
Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
I don't want to be a market timer, but I'm sure that there is going to be a pull back...
I'm not a market timer and long term you're undoubtedly right, but I'm curious why you're sure there is going to be a pull back near term? Not saying otherwise, anything is possible...
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 05:19 PM   #8
Recycles dryer sheets
NW Landlady's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Seatlle
Posts: 185
Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster View Post
Market Timing in a Nutshell
LOL!! I think that is a MAP of my BRAIN!!
__________________
When a contradiction is impossible to resolve except by a lie, then we know that it is really a door.
S. Weil
NW Landlady is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 05:26 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,199
Weren't we supposed to have a big drop this week because of events in Egypt?
__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 05:32 PM   #10
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Silicon Valley
Posts: 198
Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster View Post
Market Timing in a Nutshell
Wow you captured my investment strategy - now I have a written plan.

I don't do 11,12 or 13... but everything else is pretty spot on. I think I am at 3 now... got about 10% of my cash in on Friday.

I think there will be a pullback because everything seems to be at a two year high... and because I am about to buy... but also know it can go on for another 2-6 years.

Looking for signs - though here and Bogleheads probably aren't the right place
__________________
SVHoper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 05:36 PM   #11
Recycles dryer sheets
slingshot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Scottsdale
Posts: 57
LOL! Great feed back. I'm only SURE that there is going to be a pullback because I put money IN!
__________________
slingshot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 05:37 PM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
73ss454's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,378
Markets are a lot lower than they were 3 years or so ago. Relax, we all should have learned a good lesson in the last few years.
__________________
73ss454 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 05:41 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
easysurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 7,896
Quote:
Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
Took a portion of cash and invested the minimums in several VG index funds today. AND THEN I FREAKED OUT! I don't want to be a market timer, but I'm sure that there is going to be a pull back...
My idea was that I wanted to begin DCA with my Jan 2011 deposits. I believe in the theory but hated to do it when the markets are so high
Slingshot,

Congrats on pulling the trigger.

Part of the concept of dollar cost averaging is to invest the same amount in the same intervals so you don't freak out. For example, if you invest monthly, on down months you'd be buying more shares which should be comforting. Then when the market ticks back up, all these shares you bought during those down months will pay off.

Market Timing and DCA'ing are very different things.

Description of DCA'ing : http://stocks.about.com/od/investing.../DCA101204.htm

Description of Market Timing: http://stocks.about.com/od/investing...time100804.htm
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
easysurfer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 06:15 PM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
donheff's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 8,647
SLingshot - of course there is going to be a correction there has to be eventually. Just ignore it when it comes or you will fall into the trap Master Blaster's graph documents so well.
__________________
Every man is, or hopes to be, an Idler. -- Samuel Johnson
donheff is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 06:36 PM   #15
Full time employment: Posting here.
hankster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 645
Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster View Post
Market Timing in a Nutshell
LOL! I have a co-worker who follows this chart religiously.
__________________
"There is no dignity quite so impressive, and no independence quite so important, as living within your means." Calvin Coolidge
hankster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 07:49 PM   #16
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,620
Quote:
Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
LOL! Great feed back. I'm only SURE that there is going to be a pullback because I put money IN!
Here, lemme help you with that.

Yes, you're absolutely right, you called it, there WILL be a market pullback.

The market will also go up and sideways.

However these three things will all happen at different times and in different orders and for different reasons. Sometimes the same behavior will be assessed by the media as occurring for diametrically opposed reasons.

Feel better?

Like Rich said, set your alarm clock for five years and revisit this post after you've had your first cup of coffee.
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 07:59 PM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
While I actually believe in indxing, I have a lot of my money in individual stocks. Why? I can do a deep dive into each business and understand what it is, what it does and what its risks are. That means I can settle on individual businesses at an attractive price, buy in, and sit back as a long term owner of a business. Sure, it will have ups and downs, but over the long term I understand the business and have confidence in management so its psychologically easier for me to ride out the bad times. I am trying to get there psychologically with the indices, but as a fundamentalist so far I have an easier time being a (silent) partner in several businesses than buying an index.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 08:05 PM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,136
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
While I actually believe in indxing, I have a lot of my money in individual stocks. Why? I can do a deep dive into each business and understand what it is, what it does and what its risks are. That means I can settle on individual businesses at an attractive price, buy in, and sit back as a long term owner of a business. Sure, it will have ups and downs, but over the long term I understand the business and have confidence in management so its psychologically easier for me to ride out the bad times. I am trying to get there psychologically with the indices, but as a fundamentalist so far I have an easier time being a (silent) partner in several businesses than buying an index.
So...when are you going to begin offering newsletter subscriptions and touting how may consecutive years you've beaten the S&P 500?
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 08:12 PM   #19
Recycles dryer sheets
slingshot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Scottsdale
Posts: 57
Been there, got kicked out of that
__________________
slingshot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2011, 08:12 PM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
So...when are you going to begin offering newsletter subscriptions and touting how may consecutive years you've beaten the S&P 500?
After my crack habit gets completely out of hand.
__________________

__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Never been pulled over by the police? hakuna matata Other topics 58 04-26-2010 08:08 PM
What is the craziest stunt you've ever pulled? bbbamI Other topics 56 06-08-2009 10:00 AM
Just pulled the trigger freddyw Hi, I am... 4 01-15-2008 10:28 AM
Pulled the Trigger Today BOBOT Life after FIRE 17 10-29-2006 02:37 PM
Pulled the plug KB FIRE and Money 20 06-10-2005 10:03 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:11 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.