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02-02-2011, 03:18 PM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Scottsdale
Posts: 91
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Pulled the trigger
Took a portion of cash and invested the minimums in several VG index funds today. AND THEN I FREAKED OUT! I don't want to be a market timer, but I'm sure that there is going to be a pull back...
My idea was that I wanted to begin DCA with my Jan 2011 deposits. I believe in the theory but hated to do it when the markets are so high 
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02-02-2011, 03:22 PM
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#2
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 8,827
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Do you think you'll care 5 years from now what the market did today?
__________________
Rich
San Francisco Area
ESR'd March 2010. FIRE'd January 2011.
As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
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02-02-2011, 03:22 PM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,391
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Just think about what you can say at cocktail parties in a decade or so.
"Oh yeah <swirling your glass> , I was smart enough to invest in the markets when the Dow was only at 12k! That's only 10 percent of what it is now ! Now pour me another Dubonet !"
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02-02-2011, 03:34 PM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 1,608
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Hmmm, so you think there will be a pull back soon. I am ready to put some more $$'s into Vanguard but maybe I should wait for this pull back now. 
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02-02-2011, 03:41 PM
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#5
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 102
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Back when it was in 11.5k range, I was hesitating whether to go in or not. I went in some and had some in cash. Went down to 11k from there, then went in some more. Market crept up to 11.8k and then kicking myselt not getting all in at 11.5k. Market hit 12k and didn't get in. Went down to 11.8k, then went in. Now it's at 12k and I have 5% in cash waiting for the next pull back.
Bottom line, market is unpredictable and I look at google finance way too much.
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02-02-2011, 03:52 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,391
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Market Timing in a Nutshell
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02-02-2011, 03:54 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,298
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by slingshot
I don't want to be a market timer, but I'm sure that there is going to be a pull back...
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I'm not a market timer and long term you're undoubtedly right, but I'm curious why you're sure there is going to be a pull back near term? Not saying otherwise, anything is possible...
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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02-02-2011, 04:19 PM
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#8
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Seatlle
Posts: 185
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster
Market Timing in a Nutshell
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LOL!! I think that is a MAP of my BRAIN!! 
__________________
When a contradiction is impossible to resolve except by a lie, then we know that it is really a door.
S. Weil
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02-02-2011, 04:26 PM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
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Weren't we supposed to have a big drop this week because of events in Egypt?
__________________
Al
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02-02-2011, 04:32 PM
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#10
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Silicon Valley
Posts: 226
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster
Market Timing in a Nutshell
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Wow you captured my investment strategy - now I have a written plan.
I don't do 11,12 or 13... but everything else is pretty spot on. I think I am at 3 now... got about 10% of my cash in on Friday.
I think there will be a pullback because everything seems to be at a two year high... and because I am about to buy... but also know it can go on for another 2-6 years.
Looking for signs - though here and Bogleheads probably aren't the right place
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02-02-2011, 04:36 PM
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#11
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Scottsdale
Posts: 91
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LOL! Great feed back. I'm only SURE that there is going to be a pullback because I put money IN!
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02-02-2011, 04:37 PM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,698
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Markets are a lot lower than they were 3 years or so ago. Relax, we all should have learned a good lesson in the last few years.
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02-02-2011, 04:41 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 13,143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slingshot
Took a portion of cash and invested the minimums in several VG index funds today. AND THEN I FREAKED OUT! I don't want to be a market timer, but I'm sure that there is going to be a pull back...
My idea was that I wanted to begin DCA with my Jan 2011 deposits. I believe in the theory but hated to do it when the markets are so high |
Slingshot,
Congrats on pulling the trigger.
Part of the concept of dollar cost averaging is to invest the same amount in the same intervals so you don't freak out. For example, if you invest monthly, on down months you'd be buying more shares which should be comforting. Then when the market ticks back up, all these shares you bought during those down months will pay off.
Market Timing and DCA'ing are very different things.
Description of DCA'ing : http://stocks.about.com/od/investing.../DCA101204.htm
Description of Market Timing: http://stocks.about.com/od/investing...time100804.htm
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
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02-02-2011, 05:15 PM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 11,327
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SLingshot - of course there is going to be a correction there has to be eventually. Just ignore it when it comes or you will fall into the trap Master Blaster's graph documents so well.
__________________
Idleness is fatal only to the mediocre -- Albert Camus
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02-02-2011, 05:36 PM
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#15
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 649
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster
Market Timing in a Nutshell
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LOL! I have a co-worker who follows this chart religiously.
__________________
"There is no dignity quite so impressive, and no independence quite so important, as living within your means." Calvin Coolidge
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02-02-2011, 06:49 PM
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#16
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,860
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slingshot
LOL! Great feed back. I'm only SURE that there is going to be a pullback because I put money IN!
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Here, lemme help you with that.
Yes, you're absolutely right, you called it, there WILL be a market pullback.
The market will also go up and sideways.
However these three things will all happen at different times and in different orders and for different reasons. Sometimes the same behavior will be assessed by the media as occurring for diametrically opposed reasons.
Feel better?
Like Rich said, set your alarm clock for five years and revisit this post after you've had your first cup of coffee.
__________________
*
Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."
I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
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02-02-2011, 06:59 PM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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While I actually believe in indxing, I have a lot of my money in individual stocks. Why? I can do a deep dive into each business and understand what it is, what it does and what its risks are. That means I can settle on individual businesses at an attractive price, buy in, and sit back as a long term owner of a business. Sure, it will have ups and downs, but over the long term I understand the business and have confidence in management so its psychologically easier for me to ride out the bad times. I am trying to get there psychologically with the indices, but as a fundamentalist so far I have an easier time being a (silent) partner in several businesses than buying an index.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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02-02-2011, 07:05 PM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
While I actually believe in indxing, I have a lot of my money in individual stocks. Why? I can do a deep dive into each business and understand what it is, what it does and what its risks are. That means I can settle on individual businesses at an attractive price, buy in, and sit back as a long term owner of a business. Sure, it will have ups and downs, but over the long term I understand the business and have confidence in management so its psychologically easier for me to ride out the bad times. I am trying to get there psychologically with the indices, but as a fundamentalist so far I have an easier time being a (silent) partner in several businesses than buying an index.
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So...when are you going to begin offering newsletter subscriptions and touting how may consecutive years you've beaten the S&P 500? 
__________________
Numbers is hard
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02-02-2011, 07:12 PM
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#19
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Scottsdale
Posts: 91
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Been there, got kicked out of that
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02-02-2011, 07:12 PM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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After my crack habit gets completely out of hand.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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