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07-22-2019, 06:27 PM
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#1
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Confused about dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Glenwood
Posts: 7
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Rate of Return
What is your percent rate of return on your retirement for the last 10 years? The reason i asked the question is i have opened a retirement account with TD Ameritrade. I really like the guy. I plan on rolling my company retirement over there when i retire. The only red light is he told me i could expect a 3% return on my retirement. That sounds low. What do you guys think?
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07-22-2019, 06:32 PM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Santa Paula
Posts: 4,067
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Run! That is after he takes his cut and puts you into funds he gets a commission on.
You can get 2% on a CD, and only guarantees 1% more
__________________
Retired Jan 2009 Have not looked back.
AA 60/35/5 considering SS and pensions a SP annuity
WR 2% with 2SS & 2 Pensions
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07-22-2019, 06:32 PM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 7,863
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Vanguard says 11.4% for 7/1/09 through 6/30/19. Quicken reports 12.63% over the same time frame. I am a LTBH of low-cost broadly diversified index mutual funds and have been over 90% invested in stocks during that entire time frame.
3% sounds low to me too, but if you were invested very conservatively and he was referring to a real rate of return (i.e., subtracting out inflation), then it may or may not be reasonable.
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
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07-22-2019, 06:40 PM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: St. Charles
Posts: 3,891
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My ROR for the last 10 years has been about 8.8%. Nominally 55/45, but it has been +/- 5 at times.
__________________
If your not living on the edge, you're taking up too much space.
Never slow down, never grow old!
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07-22-2019, 07:08 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,197
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Sounds low.
Ask him for details on what AA he plans for you. Then folks on this site can assist with historical returns based on your investment profile to match up with his 3% expectation.
You can then take it from there.
__________________
TGIM
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07-22-2019, 09:17 PM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,204
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Razor Hog
What is your percent rate of return on your retirement for the last 10 years? The reason i asked the question is i have opened a retirement account with TD Ameritrade. I really like the guy. I plan on rolling my company retirement over there when i retire. The only red light is he told me i could expect a 3% return on my retirement. That sounds low. What do you guys think?
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My 10-year return is 10.7% per Vanguard... probably a tad high as I have some money outside Vanguard in 3% CDs... I'm guessing 9.5-10% with that money mixed in. As 60/40 blend of Total Stock and Total Bond, rebalanced annually was 10.4%.
3% going forward is way too low IMO, but it depends on what your asset allocation is... for a high bond allocation then 3% might be in the ball-park but for anything with 30-70% equities then my view is that 3% is low.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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07-22-2019, 09:31 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 8,304
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14.7 % over 10 yrs for a Vanguard SP500 Account with a bias to value stocks. A straight SP500 allocation or a bias to growth would’ve done better. Most of this period the return on this account was approx 8% as I recall. My balanced portfolio (50% equities) has done about 7% over 10 yrs.
__________________
...with no reasonable expectation for ER, I'm just here auditing the AP class.Retired 8/1/15.
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07-22-2019, 10:23 PM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,464
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10.9% for 10 years per Vanguard. That's about 1/2 my stash, the rest in my 401K which only reports rate of return for the last 5 years at 6% (I keep my bonds there).
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged
"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
“There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H.L. Mencken
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07-22-2019, 10:30 PM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,568
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Depends on what your Investment policy is. At least he isn't over promising. Sounds like an honest guy.
__________________
You know that suit they burying you in? Thar ain’t no pockets in that suit, boy.
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07-23-2019, 03:12 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,669
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Razor Hog
What is your percent rate of return on your retirement for the last 10 years? The reason i asked the question is i have opened a retirement account with TD Ameritrade. I really like the guy. I plan on rolling my company retirement over there when i retire. The only red light is he told me i could expect a 3% return on my retirement. That sounds low. What do you guys think?
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Sounds about right for a 3% Certificate of Deposit.
What asset allocation and investments proposed?
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07-23-2019, 05:32 AM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,197
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Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019
Sounds about right for a 3% Certificate of Deposit.
What asset allocation and investments proposed?
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If it is a CD, then why pay an FA?
__________________
TGIM
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07-23-2019, 05:34 AM
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#12
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 880
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__________________
"It is better to have a permanent income than to be fascinating". Oscar Wilde
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07-23-2019, 05:39 AM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 13,184
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Did he say or mean 3% over inflation? That might be more realistic.
Matching the past 10 years isn't realistic. I wouldn't trust anyone who said they could.
I'd be a lot more concerned about whether his strategy matches yours (or your risk profile, if you don't really know your strategy), and what his fees are.
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07-23-2019, 05:39 AM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 37,931
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The last 10 years provided extraordinary market returns. That does not promise future returns will be the same. It seems more likely not.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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07-23-2019, 05:45 AM
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#15
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gone traveling
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: NW Ohio
Posts: 1,156
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I currently am fully invested in T-Rowe Price/Brown Advisory LCG R6 fund. 25.49% YTD so far, and averaging 17.01 over the last 10 years, although I didn't invest until early last year.
T. Rowe Price/Brown Advisory
LargeCap Growth I R6 Fund , [9], [17], PLCGX -
16.1500000 25.49 7.00 4.38 13.23 21.05 14.29 17.01 6.78 11/25/2014 0.61% 0.59%
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07-23-2019, 05:47 AM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 2,509
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What allocation are you planning on for you investments? This will effect your results. Also 10 years today is likely not a great reference point. Go back 11 years will make a bit of a change as you won't be as close to the 2009 bottom.
What would you do if your investments dropped 20% in a month?
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07-23-2019, 05:55 AM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 6,679
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In my IRA, the annual rate of return for the last 10 years is 9.6%, and the AA has gradually gone from 55/45 to 45/55, consisting of an S&P500 fund and an intermediate-term, investment-grade corporate bond fund. In my taxable account, the same 10-year rate of return is 5.7%, and the AA is more bond-tilted at 35/65 because its monthly dividends are what I have been using to pay my expenses in ER since late 2008.
__________________
Retired in late 2008 at age 45. Cashed in company stock, bought a lot of shares in a big bond fund and am living nicely off its dividends. IRA, SS, and a pension await me at age 60 and later. No kids, no debts.
"I want my money working for me instead of me working for my money!"
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07-23-2019, 06:21 AM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 8,332
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3% AFTER withdrawals would be great. Is that what he meant?
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
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07-23-2019, 06:22 AM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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As some posters have cautioned, the rate of return in the last 10 years was quite high, and should not be expected to continue.
Per Morningstar, a surrogate for the S&P, VFINX, has the following returns.
June 1, 2009 - June 1, 2019: 254.9% or 13.5%/yr compounded
June 1, 1999 - June 1, 2009: -13.8% or -1.5%/yr compounded
Above numbers are with dividend reinvested, but inflation not yet accounted for.
Will the next 10 years be like the last 10 years? Or the 10 years before that?
Or perhaps we can look at the return over 20 years, which is 205.77%, or 5.7%/yr compounded?
Now, take away the inflation over 1999-2019, which is 54.9% cumulative, or 2.2%/yr. Now, we have 3.5%/yr after inflation.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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07-23-2019, 08:47 AM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Elyria, OH
Posts: 1,937
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I get cash flow of 4% to 6% on investments, no FA needed.
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