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Whenever someone quotes an expected equity rate of return in their retirement calculations, does that include dividends? I have a detailed Excel sheet and for equities for my taxable accounts I am forecasting a 4.5% return and on non taxable accounts I'm forecasting 6.5% . My equities yield around 3.5% in dividends. Should I then forecast 6.5 + 3.5 for a 10% yearly return or is it assumed that the 6.5% or whatever number you use includes dividends? I think generally they do not. If equities have historically yielded 8% or so, then with dividends should we not expect over a 10% return over the long term?
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