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Real Estate Risk Ratings by City
Old 08-06-2005, 06:58 PM   #1
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Real Estate Risk Ratings by City

Don't think this has been posted, but if it has...sorry 'bout that.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/03/real...kets/index.htm

Shows the riskiest real estate markets according to something called the PMI Risk Index, created by those fine folks who sell mortgage insurance. The higher the number, the greater the risk of a decline.


Northeast
Boston-Quincy, MA 55.3%
Nassau-Suffolk, NY 54.0%
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA 46.9%
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA 43.2%
Edison, NJ 36.4%
New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ 32.6%
Newark-Union, NJ-PA 25.1%
Baltimore-Towson, MD 12.4%
Philadelphia, PA 7.6%
Pittsburgh, PA 5.6%

Midwest
Detroit-Livonia, Dearborn MI 29.5%
Minneapolis-St Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 24.9%
Warren-Farmington Hills-Troy, MI 16.8%
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL 9.2%
St Louis, MO-IL 9.0%
Kansas City, MO-KS 8.9%
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 7.0%
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH 6.9%
Columbus, OH 6.6%

South
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Deerfield Beach, FL 21.9%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-MD-VA-WV 20.9%
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL 16.6%
Tampa-St Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 16.6%
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 10.9%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 10.6%
Orlando, FL 9.4%
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC 8.9% S
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA 7.1%
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN 6.4%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR 5.8%

West
Denver-Aurora, CO 16.9%
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 13.0%
Austin-Round Rock, TX 11.6%
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX 9.9%
Houston-Baytown-Sugarland, TX 9.3%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 9.2%
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 8.0%
San Antonio, TX 6.8%

West Coast
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 52.8%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 51.3%
Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA 51.2%
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA 50.9%
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood, CA 45.9%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 42.2%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 42.1%
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA 41.9%
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA 9.5%
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA 6.4%

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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City
Old 08-06-2005, 07:15 PM   #2
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City

Quote:
West Coast
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA* *51.3%
...
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA* *9.5%
That is hard to swallow when the $/sq.ft. in NW Portland is at least as high as Sunnyvale (I have a kid in each community).
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City
Old 08-06-2005, 07:42 PM   #3
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brat
That is hard to swallow when the $/sq.ft. in NW Portland is at least as high as Sunnyvale (I have a kid in each community).
This may explain the difference:

"The PMI Risk Index is based on economic activity and other conditions that PMI thinks are predictive of home-price declines over the next two years.

Factors used to derive the index include home prices, employment conditions and the affordability of homes."


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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City
Old 08-06-2005, 07:59 PM   #4
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City

Quote:
"The PMI Risk Index is based on economic activity and other conditions that PMI thinks are predictive of home-price declines over the next two years.

Factors used to derive the index include home prices, employment conditions and the affordability of homes."
I don't see mgt/professional employment (# or $) softening in the Silicon Valley, I don't see significant increase in density or land available.* What I do see is that the middle income groups cannot buy housing, thus manufacturing with move to more afordable communities.* Just like Manhattan in the 60s.

The Portland market has me confounded.*
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City
Old 08-06-2005, 08:11 PM   #5
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brat
I don't see mgt/professional employment (# or $) softening in the Silicon Valley, I don't see significant increase in density or land available.
Brat, I'm curious why you would think that. SV lost over 200,000 jobs when the tech bubble crashed, and SV has fairly low density housing (at least compared to places like SF). You can always build taller buildings, and places like Silicon Valley, Orange County, and San Diego (some of the most highly appreciated areas) are basically all one-story buildings with a fair amount of buildable land to expand into.
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City
Old 08-06-2005, 08:21 PM   #6
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City

I have argued for townhouses and taller buildings but my daughter says that the local powers that be won't up-zone (shades of my community).* Most of the homes were built in the early 70s so few are ready for the dumpster.
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City
Old 08-07-2005, 01:25 AM   #7
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City

Who the #$%^ is PMI and what credibility do they have?
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City
Old 08-07-2005, 01:30 AM   #8
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Who the #$%^ is PMI and what credibility do they have?
http://www.pmigroup.com/index2.html
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City
Old 08-07-2005, 01:58 AM   #9
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City

Quote:
Originally Posted by ((^+^)) SG
OK, I understand. Looks like they keep their surveys fairly objective & updated, and the Money excerpt really stripped out a lot of the context.

It just frosts me when the Mainland is divided into four areas, leaving out HI & AK, with no indication that the journalist knows any geography...
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City
Old 08-07-2005, 07:56 AM   #10
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
It just frosts me when the Mainland is divided into four areas, leaving out HI & AK, with no indication that the journalist knows any geography...
Hmmmmmm.... Maybe an "All Other" category?

Far be it for me to disparage the good states of HI and AK, but perhaps the fact that they represent only .4% and .2% respectively of the US population might have something to do with the geographical treatment they get from journalists.

But heck, we know you're out there...somewhere. And keep the faith, even Rodney Daingerfield got respect in the end...

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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City
Old 08-08-2005, 07:21 PM   #11
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City

Nords, this time HI did make the list:

From Marketwatch.com: U.S. house prices soar 16.5% in Q2
No slowdown in housing market, Fannie economist says.

"Prices increased 43.2% annualized in Hawaii..."

http://tinyurl.com/7add7

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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City
Old 08-08-2005, 11:13 PM   #12
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City

Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo!
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 52.8%
It looks like San Diego is moving into the lead spot.* *This survey might look strange next year when all of the probabilities have reached 100%.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/latimests/al...rketinsandiego

SAN DIEGO — When the housing market here was red-hot 18 months ago, Alex Flores could buy a downtown condominium with as little as $5,000 down and sell it six months later for a tidy profit of $200,000.

Now, Flores says, those easy-money days are over.
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City
Old 08-09-2005, 02:40 AM   #13
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City

Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo!
Nords, this time HI did make the list:

From Marketwatch.com:* U.S. house prices soar 16.5% in Q2
No slowdown in housing market, Fannie economist says.

"Prices increased 43.2% annualized in Hawaii..."

http://tinyurl.com/7add7 REW
Yeah, and so did property taxes.

I was surprised to learn that Honolulu has sneaked into the top 15 largest American cities. You can't tell that from the infrastructure.

FWIW I think we're past the inflection point and heading into the peak. Prices are fluctuating about the max for the last couple months and time on the market has gone up by a miniscule percentage. We'll have to see what happens when the summer moving season is formally over next month.
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City
Old 08-09-2005, 06:36 AM   #14
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Re: Real Estate Risk Ratings by City

I wonder at what point do homes become unaffordable for EVERYONE in these cities? THere has to be a breaking point somewhere and I think we are close. I can't see the lenders coming up with more exotic mortgages (i.e. int. only loans, arms) to get people into homes.
BTW- Ever notice that most lenders sell your loan shortly after closing? I think they don't want to be holding the bag when these loans start going into default. Might have something to do with those origination fees, processing fees as well....turn baby turn. OK I digressed enough.
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