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Realistic "real" returns for next 20 years
Old 05-28-2012, 05:04 PM   #1
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Realistic "real" returns for next 20 years

Besides inflation and healthcare costs as huge wildcards for those of us seeking FIRE in about 20 years, realistic annual stock returns are the great unknown in the next 20 years.

When I attempt to get to the "number" I need, I figure the overall market will return as follows. I would like to hear what others see as realistic after inflation returns:

total us stock index 4%
Total intl index 3%
Total bond index 1.5%

Am I too pessimistic?
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Old 05-28-2012, 05:26 PM   #2
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It depends on how you invest. Active verses passive. If you actively trade using a brokerage account and play both ways you can realize gains far in excess of expected returns. For example if you only bought Apple this year you would have more than doubled if you play with the market and twice that if you short. We Day Trade and try to get 2% per transaction with a target of $600 a day using typically $100k in play at any time. But if you invest wisely you might see 6% a year. This is of course all based on the assumption there isn't another melt down.
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Old 05-28-2012, 05:29 PM   #3
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Yep, day trading = investing wisely.
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Old 05-28-2012, 05:31 PM   #4
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You aren't being too pessimistic though. It is very likely to get bad later this year with a probable downgrade of the US over a repeat of the impasse of last year. The US economy remains strong though and is likely to remain that way. But, if the Dow get's back up above 14k it is over inflated and likely to correct again. Shorting at the right time can assist you in overcoming these corrections but only if you accurately predict them. In these days of high speed automatic trades it is extremely volatile an obviously corrupted by outside factors. Hopefully we can get Glass-Steigel re-enacted and stop the high peed trading which would put the market back to human speeds. For now acrive and very careful trading is critical. Passive is not a safe place to be.
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Old 05-28-2012, 05:32 PM   #5
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You can diss it all you want but we make 100% a year in bad years.
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Old 05-28-2012, 05:34 PM   #6
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It depends on how you invest. Active verses passive. If you actively trade using a brokerage account and play both ways you can realize gains far in excess of expected returns. For example if you only bought Apple this year you would have more than doubled if you play with the market and twice that if you short. We Day Trade and try to get 2% per transaction with a target of $600 a day using typically $100k in play at any time. But if you invest wisely you might see 6% a year. This is of course all based on the assumption there isn't another melt down.
More power to you if you can do this; my own limited experience taught me that this was sure way to lose money.
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Old 05-28-2012, 05:35 PM   #7
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You can diss it all you want but we make 100% a year in bad years.
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Old 05-28-2012, 05:44 PM   #8
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You can diss it all you want but we make 100% a year in bad years.
We make 107% a year but I threw away the extra 7% because it reminds me too much of an L. In bad years.
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Old 05-28-2012, 05:55 PM   #9
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Yes, I think you're being too pessimistic. After the Dow/gold ratio peaked in 1929 and 1966, stocks languished relative to gold for close to 14 years. The last such peak occurred in 1999. If the pattern repeats, stocks will begin their next 20-year rally in 2013 or 2014.
Dow/gold charts at http://home.earthlink.net/~intellige...com-dow-au.htm

If that transpires, with a Dow peak 20 years from now, that'll be like 1929 or 1966, i.e. a bad time to FIRE.
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Old 05-28-2012, 06:00 PM   #10
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Easy peasy...take your pick.

The Portfolio Solutions 30-Year Market Forecast for 2012 « « Portfolio Solutions Portfolio Solutions

Retirement Researcher Blog: Reality Check on Retirement Planning Assumptions
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Old 05-28-2012, 07:43 PM   #11
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For my deterministic projections I use a total return of 5.5% and 3% inflation (a real return of 2.5%) assuming a 45% domestic equities/15% international equities/40% fixed income mix. The total return is about 2.3% less than the 7.8% historical return of such a portfolio for 1927-2010.

Assuming your OP are real returns then they are about the same as what I am using, which I "hope" are unduly conservative.
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Old 05-28-2012, 07:54 PM   #12
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You can diss it all you want but we make 100% a year in bad years.
In a few years, you'll be playing bridge with Warren Buffet and Bill Gates.
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Old 05-28-2012, 09:53 PM   #13
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Wouldn't be surprised to see returns like that (OP) or worse for the next 5 to 10 years. But I think they will be higher after that. As to the final average, it's all a guess anyway.
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Old 05-29-2012, 12:58 AM   #14
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The real rate of return on passive investments is going to be driven by a lot of assumptions such as inflation and growth of GDP. An inflation rate of 2.5% assumes the geo-political situation normalizes which is not likely. The probable default of Greece is going to impact negatively in the short term and may collapse the Euro and by extension the dollar which has been put at risk in an attempt to shore up the Euro. This is why the markets are so unstable this year. On the other hand the dollar may survive this and come out on top once again. However, the BRICS are considering creating their own currency which could impact everything. With the US continuing to move jobs to developing countries (the rate of job increase overseas for US companies is 300% what it is for new jobs in the US by these same companies) and private equity being used to finance these moves (logical from a business sense but bad for the US in the long run) things in the markets may remain unstable for quite a long time. At some point the ridiculously low interest rates (effectively zero) must return as will hyper-inflation reminiscent of the 80's and we may see mortgages up in the 18% range again. Hopefully not but that is what happened before and is very likely to happen again. On thing that bothers most economists is the economy is not recovering correctly. Jobs are actually not being created and the housing market has not even started to recover yet. Once that begins then things will begin to normalize. But, it means the markets will be unpredictable for a long time to come.

With that in mind you may do better using other investment vehicles such as real estate. Because it has had a retarded recovery it may begin to catch up quickly and an astute investor can get in early and build equity quickly. Other more interesting ideas would be to search out large properties for sale with marketable resources. I bought 65 acres in North Carolina back in 199 for $65K and sold it 2 years later for $250K as it was heavily timbered. I had an estimate done on the commercial value of the lumber from the land if I had harvested it and it was worth substantially more than that but you have to harvest it first. Living in DC made that difficult to oversee and I was constantly worried about pirates coming in and stealing all the trees so sold it for the very nice profit. There are a lot of opportunities such as that but it takes time and effort to search them out.

Business properties are also a great opportunity and vacancy rates and desperation sales abound. With a little effort you can search out these markets and invest in buildings. Apartments are a sweet opportunity as well especially in areas near Universities.

I have done all of these and continue to own 2 houses in the US which are recovering now from their low values. However, we purchased these at the exactly wrong time and have had to wait it out. But, both are rented with positive cash flow. One actually earns $2500 a month. That one was hairy as we bought a million dollar townhome in Arlington which our mortgage is 2.5% and we put $350k down on. But rents in this area exceed $5k a month easily as a lot of young up and comers like living in the RossLynn area and they have obscene salaries at a young age. DC is a constant for rentals and there are periodic turnovers after elections. Most Congressmen and their staff rent homes or apartments and have the incomes to pay substantial rents. So, this is a very good market for rental properties. You can make a lot more on low income rental properties but that is a huge hassle and takes a lot of effort to run. Wealthy renters are a lot easier to deal with.

As for the Day Trading, that is not something for the weak minded or risk averse. You cannot play with money you need or are depending on. It is not easy and extremely tough to filter out all the BS and bad news put out to drive the markets. I am a bit luckier than most as my DW has a PhD in Geophysics and I have a PhD in Immunology. She is in fact a mathematician and my expertise runs towards analyzing non-parametric statistics with a particular emphasis on time series analysis which as it happens is applicable directly to the stock market. We are also very experienced in world wide economics and her family is in the oil business in Russia. Her original research was on using magnetic scans for deep sub-surface prospecting. Her family uses 3-D acoustical array methods for off shore analysis and oil exploration is their business and business is good. The advantage of this is that we have a complete understanding of commodities and how they inter-relate. Same for high tech but generally we stay out of them. Apple this year was very good for us. Metchel last year was also good. But, the main stocks we look at are far easier and are only based on what is happening in the market in real time which can be very hairy. These are FAS (Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares) and FAZ (Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares). If you want an exciting day you can trade these as swing trades and make a lot assuming you can guess where the market is going. Not too hard given you have the advantage of seeing what happened in Asia and Europe first but still the US market operates somewhat independently. The nice things is these are high volume stocks which means you can get in and out fast but also they are extremely volatile running 3 times the rate of the market. So we Day Trade on high volatility stocks and trade slower using our 401K accounts which we moved to Scottrade after retirement and can trade roughly every day if needed as long as you keep 1/2 in cash so you can bypass the 3 day rule in an emergency. So we invest more for the long term (for us that means 3 days or more) on our 401K accounts.

Your options are unlimited but passive investing will yield IMHO only 6% at best after accounting for inflation. Active trading is actual work and not easy but has the potential to produce large profits. The fact that we are trading with money we don't need to use for anything else probably is what has permitted us to do so well. It hasn't been easy and we have had set backs. We did lose quite a bit in 2008 as we had correctly gotten out of the market and went to money markets only to wait out the crash. Our mistake was improperly identifying the bottom and we got back in heavily and there was a second wave. It took us 1 year to recover back to where we were. That is another thing markets fall quickly but recover slowly. This why short traders should have made a killing but they were caught as well. The markets are behaving in ways that have never been seen before probably due to illegal manipulations. Algorithmic trading is also causing a lot of problems and may lead to a catastrophic crash if it isn't regulated. These robots are programmed to respond quickly and if one screws up it will cause all of them to sell off everything all at once which the market can't sustain. For this reason we are limiting the amount in play to $100K or less and we go to cash daily in all accounts until the elections are over. Right now it is the safest way to behave. I am not optimistic about the future of the economy later this year and I do foresee a major correction. I hope I am wrong but all I can see looks bad.

Also, don't forget that the tax rate for stock profits is only 15%. This is another way that the big boys are making their money.
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Old 05-29-2012, 01:11 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by frugalinvestor View Post
When I attempt to get to the "number" I need, I figure the overall market will return as follows. I would like to hear what others see as realistic after inflation returns:
total us stock index 4%
Total intl index 3%
Total bond index 1.5%
Am I too pessimistic?
Upon further reflection, what if you'd asked this question in 1992 instead of in 2012? Or in 1972?

It's human nature to be pessimistic about the things we can't control.

It's also human nature to be optimistic about the things we think we can control. That's how we can predict such miserable future returns while expecting to extract 100% APY from the stock market. But only in bad years.
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Old 05-29-2012, 02:10 AM   #16
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Actually I am cynical and pessimistic by nature which probably works well for playing in the market. Bad years are good for the markets as they correct over-optimistic rates. It means you have to play the short market though which is not easy but you can go both ways. I didn't create the system and absolutely hate the fact that naked shorts are still legal but it makes it very easy to make money on a down market. When it is trending up you play the "correct" way. I would far prefer to just play in Bull markets but the Bears are out there and we figured out that being a Bear on Bearish days is pretty good as well. But, I don't like shorting and get pretty ancie when we are doing it so we try hard to stay only in positive stocks. I know it sounds ridiculous to make more than 100% a year (in fact we made 100% on our brokerage account in the first 3 moths this year) but that was corrected by betting heavy on Apple based on the excellent quarterly report and eating back a lot of that gain. So the 100% or ore rate depends on when you look. At year's end we are doing well and very happy Congress set the tax for investments at 15%. Apple is now is recovering quickly (obvious manipulation to drive down the NASDAQ for "other" reasons) but we don't like sitting idle with the money tied up and not playing. It makes one very nervous. I am not saying we are perfect and I don't know anyone who is but we have seen some pretty spectacular results. We have also seen some pretty disheartening losses. I recall in the first year numbers like $100 a day loss would result in panic on our parts. Now we shoulder off big numbers without even breaking a sweat. That is what time and experience yield, the ability to get past the emotions of poor decisions.

Both of us came out very badly from our respective divorces and we started building from scratch in 2005 (my ex is an attorney which was't fun). Given that we only had $125k cash then and another $150k in 401k accounts we have done very well. She sold her apartment in Moscow which we used to buy the million dollar townhome. We kept back $25k for an investment account. Now, our portfolio is beyond $1M, we live in a mortgage free home, have no loans at all except the 2 mortgages in the US which we hope to eliminate next year, so we must be doing something right.

But Day Trading is not for the feint of heart and yes, most fail miserably usually in the second year. My DW lost most of hers in the second year and we had to replace it with cash out of pocket to get back to the $25K lower limit. But, she only really lost her profit (we only added back $2k) and it was a hard and well learned lesson. But we never have used money we needed or planned to require later. We also never use the margin account having had a few margin calls that very bad second year. We also got busted for breaking the 3 day rule a couple of times so that was a tough time for us. But, it was also extremely educational.

There are 2 factors that drive the market and can ruin you quickly. Greed and Fear. If you can overcome these instinctive feelings then you can do well. Greed is trying to get that tiny bit more profit and losing everything you worked for. That is countered by setting reasonable goals like 1 or 2% on a transaction and being able to absorb a 2% loss but also getting out when it drops that much. That is very hard to do emotionally. Fear is the other force and is instinctive. Again, setting goals and having escape plans can overcome this. Stops don't work on high volatility stocks so you really need to be able to see the trends and have a zen like feel for what a given stock is doing. This takes a lot of time and experience. Playing high volumes can also serve to protect you giving you a way out quickly.

Markets are just tools for investors. One thing I hear frequently asked is "Does anyone on Wall Street actually contribute anything to the economy directly?". On the surface it appears to be no, but, it does serve to capitalize companies to give them much needed capital for expansion and operations so is extremely valuable to the US economy. But it is also a very high risk venture and in well regulated systems (such as put into place after 1929) it generally works well. Historically there are crashes in all markets and I believe that is a normal function of the free market concept. Many rules were put into place after 1929 to regulate the markets. However, recent changes have destabilized it enormously and you can't figure that into long term trends. The market today is essentially back to where is was pre-1929. Perhaps worse with algorithmic trading, failure to correctly oversee the markets, obvious manipulations (large investing houses working together to push or pull a given stock), hedge funds which didn't exist before, and financial instruments (derivatives) that are leveraging as much as 500% the value of stocks. None of that has been addressed and in fact has been abetted by the government (Corzine is still free and he stole $1.5B from customer accounts (sent to JP Organ who now can't find it), lied to Congress [emails show this], and still hasn't been prosecuted nor is he likely to be). However, if one is astute and can see the trends they can do very well. I do not believe that the US economy will fail nor do I believe the markets will completely collapse. Someone always wins even in a crash. The money doesn't just disappear it goes somewhere. Why not to those who are savvy enough to trade well. Trading is not just for the extreme rich, although they do try hard to keep out individual investors. But $25K isn't that hard to come up with.

Letting passive traders such as mutual funds manage your accounts (same for 401K accounts) is just putting money in the pockets of those fund managers. Typically it is a 2.5% take on your entire account per year whether or not you actually made any profit so calculate that into the equation as well. I don't like people making money off my money which is why we moved into Day Trading. At least we are the only ones managing our own money. There is a big reason Congress created IRA's in the first place and it wasn't to make the investors rich. Mutual funds are very similar and they make obscene profits even when they lose money so I wouldn't trust them with my money. Just saying. Not criticizing but their interests are not always in line with their depositor's as evidenced by the last 4 years. I like having full control of my own money and we are able to make it work for us. At a minimum just having it in your own brokerage accounts you don't have to Day Trade. You can still do long term trades on your won using whatever algorithmic's suits you best. More or less that is what we are doing with our 401k accounts. When we begin to do the mandatory withdrawals from them we will get hit with the taxes but will likely put it into the brokerage accounts to work harder there. We haven't had to address that yet but it is coming soon.
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Old 05-29-2012, 04:37 AM   #17
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Letting passive traders such as mutual funds manage your accounts (same for 401K accounts) is just putting money in the pockets of those fund managers. Typically it is a 2.5% take on your entire account per year whether or not you actually made any profit so calculate that into the equation as well.
I don't think that many passive investors pay 2.5%. What are your brokerage fees?
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Old 05-29-2012, 06:08 AM   #18
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Actually take a look at them, it is buried in there. I was surprised when I actually took the time to analyze my 401K accounts before I transferred the ones I could to Scottrade. Some are fees within fees so it is a hidden cost and some were even as high as 5% plus whatever other fees were added after that. I used 2.5% as a low estimate. My federal TSP I couldn't do much with until I retired. Your choices are very limited and again the fees are buried. My costs are $7 per trade regardless of the amount. These days we trade large lots (it is just easier to watch) so the fee is minimal. Setting a target price for sale is relatively easy and depends on what you are trading. Typically we shoot for between 1 and 2% and during the day these movements happen frequently. Timing it to get in and out is the hardest part. Using a set sales price doesn't work well and you can get hammered for a half a percent if you let them do it for you. So, you have to have the sell position filled out and ready to execute so you have to sit and wait usually with your finger on the mouse. It can be excruciating especially when you see the weirdness that the algo systems are doing. Anyway, we always calculate the fees into the costs and it is really minimal. We literally make thousands of trades a year and I think we traded something like $50M last year but made from that about 0.6% or $300k. Not too bad but my DW spends 9 hrs a day doing this so for her it is really a full time job if you want to consider it that way. She actually likes it. But it drives me crazy so I only kibitz from the sidelines. Our annual tax report must include all transactions so you also have to keep very good records just to validate what the brokerage sends you at the end of the year. We likely could do a bit better at other brokerages but we do not do FOREX or options (another lucrative area which I haven't had the chance to really get into).

Take a look at this article and you can see what I am describing about the hidden costs: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/11/yo...pagewanted=all

It isn't quite as simple as a fixed percent but when you calculate it out for your own portfolio it is a bit shocking. It is even worse if you make frequent adjustments to the ratios and/or funds it encompasses. There are fees for everything. When I was a contractor my employer even added their own fees on top of this. I was not a happy camper when I saw that. Most people never take the time or effort to dig through the reports to see this and are oblivious to it. They actually make it very hard to extract this information so as to obfuscate it deliberately. What scares me is the growing movement to convert the Social Security system into a privately managed system modeled after IRA's. I wonder who is supporting that? That is guaranteeing money for these same mutual funds and fund managers. I do agree that they provide a service and I do not believe they are evil money hogging miscreants but on a cost/benefit basis to me it is a shameful waste for me to participate in. As I said before I do not want anyone else managing my money.
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Old 05-29-2012, 06:15 AM   #19
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Bor, most of us on this forum use Vanguard or Fidelity and many of us are index fund investors. We understand that costs/fees matter, use that as a criteria in selecting funds and track the expense ratios of our portfolio. At 0.28%, mine isn't as low as it could be but it certainly doesn't come close to your claimed 2.5%.
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Old 05-29-2012, 06:26 AM   #20
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Also, don't forget that the tax rate for stock profits is only 15%. This is another way that the big boys are making their money.
The 15% is the rate for long term capital gains. Day trading and anything held for less than 1 year pays at ordinary income tax rates. Also, unearned income exceeding a threshold of $200k (filing single) to $250k (joint) will also pay 3.8% Medicare tax beginning 01/13.
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