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Reality Check -- Government lying SOBs
Old 05-20-2008, 08:15 PM   #1
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Reality Check -- Government lying SOBs

Some quick spot statistics, to remind some of us that things are not as rosy as one might wish.

Item: USA per-household net wealth = $70K; net share of total unfunded Federal liabilities = $500K. (Source: The Daily Reckoning)

Item: Year-over-year USA inflation = 26.1% ("all items"); food = 58.7%; crude oil = 99% (Source: The Economist commodity-price index | Economist.com )

You can dither about hedonics, statistics, etc., but the bottom line is that things are a lot worse than the government wishes you to believe. Plan your futures accordingly (whatever the hell that means!!!)
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Old 05-20-2008, 08:23 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pedorrero View Post
Some quick spot statistics, to remind some of us that things are not as rosy as one might wish.

Item: USA per-household net wealth = $70K; net share of total unfunded Federal liabilities = $500K. (Source: The Daily Reckoning)

Item: Year-over-year USA inflation = 26.1% ("all items"); food = 58.7%; crude oil = 99% (Source: The Economist commodity-price index | Economist.com )

You can dither about hedonics, statistics, etc., but the bottom line is that things are a lot worse than the government wishes you to believe. Plan your futures accordingly (whatever the hell that means!!!)
Proves very little. "All Items" was a select basket of a few currencies, oil, selected other commodities, and food. Most people spend far more money on mortgages, electronics, cars, etc.

Every year it would be easy to pluck particular categories that have gone up in price.
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Old 05-20-2008, 08:34 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pedorrero View Post
Some quick spot statistics, to remind some of us that things are not as rosy as one might wish.

Item: USA per-household net wealth = $70K; net share of total unfunded Federal liabilities = $500K. (Source: The Daily Reckoning)

Item: Year-over-year USA inflation = 26.1% ("all items"); food = 58.7%; crude oil = 99% (Source: The Economist commodity-price index | Economist.com )

You can dither about hedonics, statistics, etc., but the bottom line is that things are a lot worse than the government wishes you to believe. Plan your futures accordingly (whatever the hell that means!!!)
You are preaching to card carrying members of the plunge protection team, they'll not buy a word of it. Buy, buy, buy
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Old 05-20-2008, 08:48 PM   #4
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Your fine long as you got them 6 % annuities
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Old 05-20-2008, 08:52 PM   #5
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Your fine long as you got them 6 % annuities
6% annuities? you must be kidding

Keep up that 60/40 mix, I bet you'll be really living it up on those 4% withdrawals in a few years (and sweating out every market twitch for the rest of your life). Now that's really really or .

Sorry
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Old 05-21-2008, 08:30 AM   #6
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from the same issue of the Economist:
Quote:
Consumer prices in America rose by 0.2% in April, a smaller increase than expected. Prices excluding food and energy rose by 0.1%. ...

Consumer prices in China rose by 8.5% in the year to April, a bit faster than in the year to March. ...

Consumer-price inflation in Britain jumped from 2.5% to 3% in April, leaving it further adrift of the government's 2% target. In its quarterly Inflation Report, the Bank of England said that inflation was likely to be above 3% for much of the next year. ...

Sweden's consumer-price inflation was 3.4% in April, unchanged from March.
i'm thinking it must be the price inflation of tinfoil that's getting some so unhinged.
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Old 05-21-2008, 08:31 AM   #7
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Food up 58.7%? Only if that includes the high-quality recreational drugs the authors of that table were using. My wife and I spend about $100 per week for grocery shopping -- up about 20% over the last 7 years, in line with 3% per year inflation.
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Old 05-21-2008, 09:02 AM   #8
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ps: ... and from the text accompanying that originally mentioned item
Quote:
The oil price is reaching fresh highs, but other commodity prices have softened. The Economist's all-items dollar index has fallen by 5% since its peak on March 4th. This drop may reflect selling by speculators as stockmarkets, and latterly the dollar itself, have staged a rally. Even food prices have dropped. America's Department of Agriculture has forecast a record world wheat harvest for the season starting in September, and prices are down by a third from their peak. But maize prices hit a new high, partly because of a projected increase in ethanol production. The metals index is 9% below its peak of a year ago. Supply fears have pushed tin prices to record levels, but nickel and zinc prices have fallen by almost half.
but thinking again about tinfoil, note that last line, "tin prices to record levels"
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Old 05-21-2008, 09:38 AM   #9
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I wouldn't sat that the "authors of the table" who are using the recreational drugs. The people at The Economist are probably doing exactly what they claim to be doing - they're tracking commodity prices in international trade. "Commodities" include things like wheat, maize, and aluminum. They've been doing this for 160 years, though they change the specific commodities and weights periodically. (The table is a little confusing, the bottom four lines are not included in the "all items" index.)

The problem comes from Pedorrero confusing "commodity prices" with "USA Inflation". The costs of wheat and maize at a port are only a small portion of our grocery bills.
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Old 05-21-2008, 09:59 AM   #10
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The problem comes from Pedorrero confusing "commodity prices" with "USA Inflation". The costs of wheat and maize at a port are only a small portion of our grocery bills.
We've been over this before. Stop trying to confuse rantings about CPI and inflation with facts.
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Old 05-21-2008, 10:10 AM   #11
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Robert the Red.. it's not the drugs.. the Economist numbers are food commodity prices, not retail.

Retail prices are going to reflect a lot of other costs, some which are going up, like transportation, or maybe heating/lighting and other energy used by the stores.. as well as others which have not been rising or which have declined in real terms, like employee wages. Been following various other threads (not on this forum) and food numbers are all over the place in the US. Some areas report .99 ground beef on sale and others 3.99 "on sale". Boneless chicken breasts from .99 (!!) to $4 or more. YMMV.
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Old 05-21-2008, 12:31 PM   #12
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Been following various other threads (not on this forum) and food numbers are all over the place in the US. Some areas report .99 ground beef on sale and others 3.99 "on sale". Boneless chicken breasts from .99 (!!) to $4 or more. YMMV.
Yep. I live in an area where food stores are numerous and extremely competitive. It has never been more beneficial for me to carefully read sale fliers and shop at 4 or 5 stores to cherry pick sales items than it is today. Jewel has milk at $1.99 this week. Everyone else is two and big change. Etc, etc on many items..... each store trying to attract you with a few bargain items. You need to know where they are and be willing to spend the time.

Unfortunately, two of our local independent stores closed in the past year. One had the by far the best seafood counter which I miss.

By shopping hard and smart, inflation of our grocery bill has been minimal, but it's an effort.
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Old 05-21-2008, 01:35 PM   #13
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I see the local Food Lion stores are joining the "spend your rebate check here and we'll add 10%".

You buy gift cards they add 10%.

I'll wait to see what Martin's (Giant) does.

Might take them up on it.
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Old 05-22-2008, 09:32 AM   #14
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Bill Gross' June 08 market commentary discusses gov't inflation stats vs. 'real' inflation stats.

PIMCO - IO June 2008
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