Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Really Informative M* Article on Inflation
Old 12-24-2013, 08:38 AM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,471
Really Informative M* Article on Inflation

Samuel Lee writes some great articles for Morningstar. I thought this one on inflation statistics was particularly informative as it covers all the "rival" inflation statistics and their implications. Great food for thought. Moving the Goal Posts

Quote:
Williams himself [of Shadowstats] admitted in 2008 that, rather than performing the complicated task of collecting and computing the data necessary to calculate a CPI, he simply tacks on an "add factor" to the BLS' reported numbers.(7) If you subtract his adjusted CPI from the official CPI, the factor looks pretty much like a constant 7%.
BTW - It costs nothing to enroll to read Morningstar articles and the discussion forums. You only need a "premium membership" to get to some of the more advanced investment analysis features. If you haven't been taking advantage of the quality free info at M* - well, you should!
__________________

__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 12-24-2013, 08:41 AM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,705
FWIW I can't live without M* to help me view my portfolio and to see how some ideas might work out. Good articles, forum and sweet portfolio manager.

It's one of the few subscriptions I'd pay for (about $150 per year) if I didn't get it free via TRPrice.
__________________

__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
marko is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2013, 10:30 AM   #3
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Samuel Lee writes some great articles for Morningstar. I thought this one on inflation statistics was particularly informative as it covers all the "rival" inflation statistics and their implications. Great food for thought. Moving the Goal Posts



BTW - It costs nothing to enroll to read Morningstar articles and the discussion forums. You only need a "premium membership" to get to some of the more advances investment analysis features. If you haven't been taking advantage of the quality free info at M* - well, you should!
I look forward to reading Lee's articles--they are consistently thought-provoking and well written. But I missed this one, thanks for pointing it out.

Chris
__________________
Chris M is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2013, 10:37 AM   #4
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,612
I don't think the CPI is a good indicator of the "real" inflation most people are feeling (people who don't have the money to buy big-ticket electronic goods getting a lot cheaper aren't getting the benefits of lower prices which offset the higher inflation in the food, energy, education and health care they do buy), and certain sneaky CPI tricks like "substitution" also understate it -- but just adding a constant to compensate for that (and substitution and other factors) is pretty silly.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2013, 11:02 AM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,686
I liked the way the article read. At first it felt like the French Revolution with pitchforks out. Then it morphed into what I think is a reasonable conclusion.

BTW, one of my favorite writers on M* is Rekenthaler. The archives on his articles are here: //http://www.morningstar.com/articles/author/208-john-rekenthaler.aspx
__________________
Lsbcal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2013, 11:37 AM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,471
I love the weekly economic reports posted by Bob Johnson. Fantastic research and very well presented. A great education for new investors. So many financial articles are fluff, it's a real pleasure to read such thoroughly researched pieces. Now he covers the US economy, not the markets. It's also important for investors to learn the distinction!

http://www.morningstar.com/articles/...t-johnson.aspx
__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2013, 12:02 PM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
photoguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 2,301
Thanks for posting. I remember looking at the shadowstats "inflation" figures a while ago and thinking exactly the same thing -- that it was bogus and the author just added a flat factor to the official figures (how else could the inflation graphs exactly mirror each other).
__________________
photoguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2013, 12:09 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
donheff's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 8,644
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post

BTW - It costs nothing to enroll to read Morningstar articles and the discussion forums. You only need a "premium membership" to get to some of the more advanced investment analysis features. If you haven't been taking advantage of the quality free info at M* - well, you should!
Thanks. I added their news to my RSS feed. As for inflation, I am pretty comfortable with the BLS CPI figures. We have talked a lot about computing your "personal" rate of inflation but BLS has to accomodate the whole country and all it's instruments not just some cranky ER skeptics.
__________________

__________________
Every man is, or hopes to be, an Idler. -- Samuel Johnson
donheff is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:32 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.