Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Re: Reasonable Probability?
Old 12-22-2004, 06:03 AM   #41
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 58
Re: Reasonable Probability?

I plan for a 0% after tax real return during retirement.

so (spending + med ins) x joint life expectancy = portfolio needed

portfolio divided by initial life expectancy for rate
age 62 1/62 = 3.3% annual draw

nominal returns just offset inflation

cheesy, but fairly consistent with past world averages and current U.S valuations.

And easy to explain to my wife.
mark is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Reasonable Probability?
Old 12-22-2004, 06:10 AM   #42
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 58
Re: Reasonable Probability?

oops, mistakes in typing

starting age 62 1/29 years = 3.4% rate
mark is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Reasonable Probability?
Old 12-22-2004, 08:39 AM   #43
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 1,318
Re: Reasonable Probability?

Mark,
I'd like your math more if I weren't in my 40s!
For me, it would give me about 1.6% SWR which would have my wife sending me back to work!
__________________
ER for 10 years; living off 4.3% of savings (and a few book royalties ;-)
ESRBob is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Reasonable Probability?
Old 12-23-2004, 04:55 AM   #44
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 58
Re: Reasonable Probability?

Hey, I'm 43. Depending on whose demograpic chart you believe, I'm about the last of the Baby Boomers, or the first post-Boomer.
mark is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Reasonable Probability?
Old 12-23-2004, 07:01 AM   #45
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 58
Re: Reasonable Probability?

Run Firecalc with a 1% expense ratio, which was about a cheap as you could invest in the past. I think Firecalc gives an optimistic figure if you input current low index fund expenses into a past history that always had higher investing costs. Surely past investors had some idea of their investment costs and priced securities accordingly.

Note also there are international markets with generally lower returns than the U.S. But we lack the level of information that is available for the U.S market. If any weight at all is given to these excluded results, the 0% after tax real return while withdrawing may not be far off the mark.

Todays higher valuations may be offset by todays lower index investing costs, making past average (but not likely above average) returns possible during accumulation. But the net amounts received by investors was generally lower than most sales brochures indicate.
mark is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Reasonable Cost of a central air/furnace unit?? FinanceDude Other topics 30 03-07-2007 07:53 AM
reasonable medicine d0ug Health and Early Retirement 0 02-09-2007 01:49 PM
What is reasonable fee for DFA funds? lifeisgood FIRE and Money 33 10-04-2006 03:36 PM
What Is A Reasonable Return? tozz FIRE and Money 4 10-23-2005 12:08 AM
What's reasonable for a pre-nup? soupcxan Other topics 45 10-05-2005 03:41 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:44 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.