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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-21-2006, 07:10 PM   #21
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

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I watch daily markets for entertainment
and it can be quite entertaining! but even more so are the "explanations" for the market behavior. *sometimes they seem apt, but sometimes just provides a hearty chuckle -- esp. on those days when the market is up for the same "reason" it was down on the day previous.
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-21-2006, 07:12 PM   #22
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

'Stocks like Enron and Worldcom are super blue chips that simply must be a part of every portfolio...at any price. These are the companies that will garner the lions share of the profits in the decades ahead'

- Some financial rag from 1998 that i read in the doctors office in 2001...
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-21-2006, 07:38 PM   #23
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

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...at any price
very prophetic!
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-21-2006, 08:49 PM   #24
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

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Originally Posted by Nords
(portions redacted for benefit of dial-up users)
So in other words, Nords, a bunch of scientists, meteorologists, and statisticians have tons of complicated computer models that allow them to make an educated guess on future weather conditions. Financial journalists just guess. There's a difference there.
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-21-2006, 09:36 PM   #25
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

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Originally Posted by justin
So in other words, Nords, a bunch of scientists, meteorologists, and statisticians have tons of complicated computer models that allow them to make an educated guess on future weather conditions.* Financial journalists just guess.* There's a difference there.
I think the journalists might get paid more, too.

But they rarely lose their jobs for being wrong, and more people yell at the TV weather girl than the news anchors.

Usually when I made a mistake with a nuclear reactor it was pretty clear whose fault it was, but spouse has this whole Bob Newhart/Larry Miller standup routine on why it did or didn't rain today when it shouldn't or should have. One of the reasons she likes living here is because the forecast barely changes...
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-22-2006, 08:28 AM   #26
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

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There's a difference there.
a major difference.* Predictions about the weather will have no effect upon the weather.* Predictions about the markets can have very real effects upon the market -- sometimes good, sometimes bad.*
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-22-2006, 08:59 AM   #27
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

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Originally Posted by Nords


The most accurate weather forecaster in the world is a holy grail called "persistence". Persistence says that tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's weather. That's it. Persistence is usually right just over 50% of the time and the next-closest forecaster is no better than 45%.

Pretty funny, that's the exact same as predicting interest rates, or exchange rates.

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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-22-2006, 10:29 AM   #28
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

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a major difference.* Predictions about the weather will have no effect upon the weather.* Predictions about the markets can have very real effects upon the market -- sometimes good, sometimes bad.*
Very good point. The Fed's comments are proving to be a pretty powerful feedback loop...
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-22-2006, 02:49 PM   #29
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

I've always felt that the big investment firms rating on stocks are the best TRAILING indicator of what to do. Example:

Company XXX is at $75/share.
Company XXX announces that earnings are now expected to be lower for the next quarter than predicted.
Stock drops to $67.
Merrill Lynch, UBS, etc. downgrade the stock to "HOLD" from "OUTPERFORM", or some such nonsense.

Nobody issued that change PRIOR to the company guidance.
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-23-2006, 07:48 AM   #30
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

How cynical... :P
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-23-2006, 09:28 AM   #31
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

So in other words, Nords, a bunch of scientists, meteorologists, and statisticians have tons of complicated computer models that allow them to make an educated guess on future weather conditions. Financial journalists just guess. There's a difference there.

The first group use SWAG - scientific wild ass guesses
The second group uses just wild ass guesses
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-23-2006, 02:26 PM   #32
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

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Originally Posted by Nords
I hear what you guys are saying, but I have to live with this crap every day.* Spouse used to be the Ops officer at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, her relief has his doctorate in tropical meteorology and now works at the National Hurricane Center, and she regularly went to conferences with guys like Stacey Stewart or had Reservists in similar jobs come out to JTWC for duty.

The most accurate weather forecaster in the world is a holy grail called "persistence".* Persistence says that tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's weather.* That's it.* Persistence is usually right just over 50% of the time and the next-closest forecaster is no better than 45%.

...
Geez, Nords.* And I thought I knew something.* OK, I will have to do a bit more reading before getting back to this weather forecasting stuff.* Can't compete with a Joint Typhoon Warning Center Ops Officer's housemate*

Sam
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-23-2006, 03:14 PM   #33
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

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Originally Posted by Sam
Can't compete with a Joint Typhoon Warning Center Ops Officer's housemate*
I was awakened more midwatches by my kid than by sea duty, but my spouse beat us both combined with her watch officers. Thank goodness for the Internet-- her predecessors had to drive into work to look at the images. They even kept a sleeper sofa in the office.

She doesn't miss military meteorology one bit...

You could spend your whole life on this stuff:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc
http://www.hurricanehunters.com/
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-23-2006, 03:30 PM   #34
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

Persistence defined:
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-23-2006, 06:06 PM   #35
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

Justin,
At least ours is a dry persistence.

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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-23-2006, 09:16 PM   #36
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

Wusses.

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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-24-2006, 12:38 PM   #37
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

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Originally Posted by Cute n Fuzzy Bun'ny
Wusses.
What kind of award do you win for your suffering?
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings
Old 06-24-2006, 12:45 PM   #38
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Re: Reasons behind short term stock market swings

The great relief when it cools way off later in the week...I hear its going to drop all the way down to 97...

:P
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