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Old 10-22-2008, 07:51 PM   #21
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I hope we don't go there. Living in the city won't seem like such a good idea in that case.

Time to move to the mountains and have plenty of food and guns! Hey,
I've got most of that already!
This is going to be interesting - hold on!
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Old 10-22-2008, 07:52 PM   #22
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I think its going to be an S shape over the next 50 years.
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Old 10-22-2008, 08:40 PM   #23
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Right now my technical analysis of the recent market trends shows a spiral, tracing out tighter and tighter patterns in the shape of a screw.

Or maybe it's tracing a whirlpool shape.
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Old 10-22-2008, 09:44 PM   #24
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Peter Schiff's predictions are pretty frightening (hyper-inflation, food/gas shortages, civil unrest). What's more frightening is that he was predicting at least part of our current economic crisis about 3 years ago.
Yeah, he's been right and he makes a good bit of sense on the face of it. But I don't trust his motives entirely as he's hawking books, gold, etc. so keeping the doomsday talk up works right into his interests. He wouldn't want to turn that off just yet!
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Old 10-22-2008, 09:53 PM   #25
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I predict an X shaped recession.
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Old 10-22-2008, 10:03 PM   #26
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However, some gentleman (was it Roubini?) was saying he anticipated this recession to be a V shape.
Did anyone catch that on Squawk Box this morning? And who was that masked man? And what was his logic if anyone heard this?
If this is true, this shoots Suze Orman's theory of a L-shaped recession in the foot.
I really don't see how one person's conjecture can refute another person's conjecture. With time we will know. Until then, all we know is that based on normally stable metrics many stocks are cheap

The whole concept of value investing is based on return-to-the-mean. There is only one thing you can know-that values have(or have not) significantly deviated from the mean. If we are going off onto some unprecedented pathway all bets are off. But usually the pathways are well worn, and the future values are from the same distribution as the past ones.

So if you wish to assume continuity, just wait. However if you think that you have accurately identified some important change, I can't say what you should do.

Ha
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Old 10-22-2008, 11:05 PM   #27
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I really don't see how one person's conjecture can refute another person's conjecture. With time we will know. Until then, all we know is that based on normally stable metrics many stocks are cheap

The whole concept of value investing is based on return-to-the-mean. There is only one thing you can know-that values have(or have not) significantly deviated from the mean. If we are going off onto some unprecedented pathway all bets are off. But usually the pathways are well worn, and the future values are from the same distribution as the past ones.

So if you wish to assume continuity, just wait. However if you think that you have accurately identified some important change, I can't say what you should do.

Ha
Well said. But all the other stuff is sooooo much more interesting! And better for ratings and book sales, etc. As it ever was, so shall it ever be.
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Old 10-23-2008, 10:19 AM   #28
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Could be that a "recovery" will be vee shaped - only like " ^ " .
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