Recession is going to be a V shape?

[haha]

However, some gentleman (was it Roubini?) was saying he anticipated this recession to be a V shape.
Did anyone catch that on Squawk Box this morning? And who was that masked man? And what was his logic if anyone heard this?
If this is true, this shoots Suze Orman's theory of a L-shaped recession in the foot.

I really don't see how one person's conjecture can refute another person's conjecture. With time we will know. Until then, all we know is that based on normally stable metrics many stocks are cheap

The whole concept of value investing is based on return-to-the-mean. There is only one thing you can know-that values have(or have not) significantly deviated from the mean. If we are going off onto some unprecedented pathway all bets are off. But usually the pathways are well worn, and the future values are from the same distribution as the past ones.

So if you wish to assume continuity, just wait. However if you think that you have accurately identified some important change, I can't say what you should do.

Ha

 

[Gardnr]

I really don't see how one person's conjecture can refute another person's conjecture. With time we will know. Until then, all we know is that based on normally stable metrics many stocks are cheap

The whole concept of value investing is based on return-to-the-mean. There is only one thing you can know-that values have(or have not) significantly deviated from the mean. If we are going off onto some unprecedented pathway all bets are off. But usually the pathways are well worn, and the future values are from the same distribution as the past ones.

So if you wish to assume continuity, just wait. However if you think that you have accurately identified some important change, I can't say what you should do.

Ha

Well said. But all the other stuff is sooooo much more interesting! And better for ratings and book sales, etc. As it ever was, so shall it ever be.

 

[BOBOT]

Could be that a "recovery" will be vee shaped - only like " ^ " .