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Recession is going to be a V shape?
Old 10-22-2008, 09:38 AM   #1
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Recession is going to be a V shape?

I'm so busy in the early morning giving my elderly parent 4 (yes! 4) different inhalers so she can breathe, I miss many things on Squawk Box which I watch each morning.
However, some gentleman (was it Roubini?) was saying he anticipated this recession to be a V shape.
Did anyone catch that on Squawk Box this morning? And who was that masked man? And what was his logic if anyone heard this?
If this is true, this shoots Suze Orman's theory of a L-shaped recession in the foot.
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Old 10-22-2008, 09:55 AM   #2
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I didn't see it - V maybe a U .
Just as everyone has been calling a recession for a year or so - we might not have entered a recession until the past month or so.

The recession will seem bad - that is because of the media and we haven't had a general recession in quite some time.

I suggest Bloomberg TV on cable or the internet - a lot less hype, calmer and seems more reasoned to me.
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Old 10-22-2008, 10:26 AM   #3
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Yes, Bloomberg is my other show I switch to. Back and forth, back and forth.
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Old 10-22-2008, 10:35 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by Orchidflower View Post
If this is true, this shoots Suze Orman's theory of a L-shaped recession in the foot.
Quit listening to Suze Orman, other than coaching debt, she's doesn't have much real knowledge.........
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Old 10-22-2008, 10:48 AM   #5
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i vote for V

the systemic risk is behind us. profit growth will slow for a year or two and housing will be in the dumps until well into the next decade. but this will put more money into people's pockets along with lower energy prices

just don't expect the market to recover as fast as it did after 2002. i think the low will come next year and it will probably take almost 10 years to get back to the 2007 highs. probably longer for the Dow
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Old 10-22-2008, 10:50 AM   #6
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Quit listening to Suze Orman, other than coaching debt, she's doesn't have much real knowledge.........
Is there a joke there..."L" for lesbian?
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Old 10-22-2008, 10:58 AM   #7
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i vote for V

the systemic risk is behind us. profit growth will slow for a year or two and housing will be in the dumps until well into the next decade. but this will put more money into people's pockets along with lower energy prices

just don't expect the market to recover as fast as it did after 2002. i think the low will come next year and it will probably take almost 10 years to get back to the 2007 highs. probably longer for the Dow

How is this a V? It sounds more like L __/
V
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Old 10-22-2008, 11:23 AM   #8
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the economic recovery will probably happen faster. stocks will take longer because after 2002 wall street leveraged up to 40x1 in some cases. this is not going to happen again so don't expect stocks to recover as fast
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Old 10-22-2008, 11:38 AM   #9
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It will be a protracted downturn. The American consumer, while getting a break on retail gas prices for now, is out of money, and can't tap any more non-equity in their house.........
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Old 10-22-2008, 11:57 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Orchidflower View Post
I'm so busy in the early morning giving my elderly parent 4 (yes! 4) different inhalers so she can breathe, I miss many things on Squawk Box which I watch each morning.
However, some gentleman (was it Roubini?) was saying he anticipated this recession to be a V shape.
Did anyone catch that on Squawk Box this morning? And who was that masked man? And what was his logic if anyone heard this?
If this is true, this shoots Suze Orman's theory of a L-shaped recession in the foot.
It was Jack Rivkin who was predicting a V shaped recession. Recent predictions by Jack include double digit percentage gains on the market in 2007. On the other hand, Nouriel Roubini who has been recently elevated from chicken little to an oracle, said that it will be a L shaped recession lasting over 2 years. Roubini has been predicting a recession as early as September of 2006. He has be labeled with the moniker "Dr. Doom" along with Marc Faber, Peter Schiff and Hugh Hendry.
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Old 10-22-2008, 01:24 PM   #11
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Thanks, riskadverse, as I didn't catch the speaker's name.
Well, if Roubini predicts an L shaped recession he is right there with Orman...who's eyes alone scare the crap out of me (I never watch her, but a guy I swim with loves her...I think it's cause she's Jewish like he is, frankly.). She's spooky to me...oooooo, those freaky eyes....she looks semi-mad half the time. She must scare the little kids when she comes to the door at Halloween with those glassy eyes of hers, I should think.
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Old 10-22-2008, 01:39 PM   #12
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He has be labeled with the moniker "Dr. Doom" along with Marc Faber, Peter Schiff and Hugh Hendry.
Peter Schiff's predictions are pretty frightening (hyper-inflation, food/gas shortages, civil unrest). What's more frightening is that he was predicting at least part of our current economic crisis about 3 years ago.
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Old 10-22-2008, 01:56 PM   #13
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On the other hand, Nouriel Roubini who has been recently elevated from chicken little to an oracle, said that it will be a L shaped recession lasting over 2 years.
he called for an l before the bailout and has since called for a u, with more pain to be felt first.
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Old 10-22-2008, 02:00 PM   #14
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I think it will be a bathtub shaped recession. Hopefully, the bathtub will be designed for a short person, not a tall person.
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Old 10-22-2008, 02:17 PM   #15
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Old 10-22-2008, 02:23 PM   #16
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Canadian Grunt,
Right! I put them in the same boat as weathermen!

How many economist are on the Forbes 500 list? Seems if they were that good there would be a lot!
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Old 10-22-2008, 02:57 PM   #17
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Canadian Grunt,
Right! I put them in the same boat as weathermen!
Unfair to weathermen - most of them are right at least half of the time!
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Old 10-22-2008, 03:47 PM   #18
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It was Jack Rivkin who was predicting a V shaped recession. Recent predictions by Jack include double digit percentage gains on the market in 2007.
Darn, I watched a little CNBC this morning and was impressed by the way Rivkin gave his "list" of stocks he was interested in. "I wouldn't be buying now, but here's 16 names, half of them I like and the other half I don't You figure out which is which. Do your own work - don't pick a stock just because you saw it on TV."
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Thanks, riskadverse, as I didn't catch the speaker's name
Rubini was the one with an accent who looks like an academic who dug his suit and tie out of the trunk of his car, from under the spare tire.

Rubini has been labeled a permabear because he 's been hollering "monsters are coming" for years. He was right about bad stuff coming, but over the years he's been all over the place on what was coming and why and how. Not that I don't think he was smart for seeing this, but I don't know that I can trust his ability to predict the future once we're clear of the current mess. With Rubini it's always been a one note song. He's probably good for keeping people grounded by realizing that the worst case scenario can happen.

I didn't hear Rivkin say anything about the shape or duration of this particular recession, but if I recall accurately what Rubini has said in the past, we won't see the end of this until late 2009, but the effects will linger on for a while even after that. I guess that's a bathtub shape: L_/
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Old 10-22-2008, 03:56 PM   #19
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb was on the NewsHour last night. There was a mathematician with him but I forget his name. They said the disruption to the American society and economy from the worldwide banking crisis could rival the "American Revolution" . Both said they don't sleep well at night worrying but hope that they will be wrong. I guess they support the 'L'.
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Old 10-22-2008, 03:57 PM   #20
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Peter Schiff's predictions are pretty frightening (hyper-inflation, food/gas shortages, civil unrest).
I hope we don't go there. Living in the city won't seem like such a good idea in that case.
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