Originally Posted by ziggy29
Unemployment has not peaked. No way. Even if the economy has bottomed -- and I'm not convinced of that, though it's possible the rate of collapse is slowing -- unemployment almost always lags the end of a recession by several months.
I would think the same about the unemployment, though suspect that if we have not been past the economy bottom, then it is not more than a few months down the road. The money that has been issued is slow in "trickling down" due to the gummint's bureaucracy, but once the floodgate is opened, we may face a deluge. “Après moi, le déluge” (“After me, the deluge")
Louis XV (or US Congress 2009)
Back to reading tea leaves on the economy, it is strange that Robert Gordon stuck his neck out with such an assertion. But here are two more articles on taking the pulse of the economy that I would like to share. One uses the "men underwear" indicator. Supposedly, Alan Greenspan used it among more conventional econometrics. I am not making this up.
How your undies track the recession - MSN Money
Basically, the above article argues that "right now men's underwear sales suggest that things have bottomed but not started to recover."
. This conclusion does not necessarily contradict what the second article reported. Namely, it is that the recovery will begin in 2nd half of 2009 and not 2010 as some predicted. The recovery however will be anemic. I am still OK with that.
Survey: Most economists see recession end in '09: Associated Press Business News - MSN Money
Confused? I am going to hold my nose and "buy, buy, buy". Mining companies in Australia and Brazil, dry-bulk shippers, chemical and agricultural companies, etc ... If not individual stocks then ETF. Perhaps another 10 to 20% of portfolio.
Heh heh heh ... It can't be "irrational exuberance" yet, as a majority of investors are still pretty scared.