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Old 05-27-2009, 02:06 PM   #41
Recycles dryer sheets
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If you look at a non COLA'd pension as an annuity, in my situation at age 60 male for single life 5 year certain it worked out to 13.3. For dual life, with a 58 year old female it worked out to 15.5 so ERD50's numbers look pretty good. A $3,000 per month dual life benefit would cost approximately $560,000.

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Old 05-27-2009, 02:30 PM   #42
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And if long term Treasury rates keep rising, the monthly payouts for an SPIA will keep rising. Of course, you'd still need inflation protection elsewhere, most likely.

"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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Old 05-27-2009, 04:53 PM   #43
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
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Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
Unemployment has not peaked. No way. Even if the economy has bottomed -- and I'm not convinced of that, though it's possible the rate of collapse is slowing -- unemployment almost always lags the end of a recession by several months.
I would think the same about the unemployment, though suspect that if we have not been past the economy bottom, then it is not more than a few months down the road. The money that has been issued is slow in "trickling down" due to the gummint's bureaucracy, but once the floodgate is opened, we may face a deluge. “Après moi, le déluge” (“After me, the deluge") Louis XV (or US Congress 2009)

Back to reading tea leaves on the economy, it is strange that Robert Gordon stuck his neck out with such an assertion. But here are two more articles on taking the pulse of the economy that I would like to share. One uses the "men underwear" indicator. Supposedly, Alan Greenspan used it among more conventional econometrics. I am not making this up.

How your undies track the recession - MSN Money

Basically, the above article argues that "right now men's underwear sales suggest that things have bottomed but not started to recover.". This conclusion does not necessarily contradict what the second article reported. Namely, it is that the recovery will begin in 2nd half of 2009 and not 2010 as some predicted. The recovery however will be anemic. I am still OK with that.

Survey: Most economists see recession end in '09: Associated Press Business News - MSN Money

Confused? I am going to hold my nose and "buy, buy, buy". Mining companies in Australia and Brazil, dry-bulk shippers, chemical and agricultural companies, etc ... If not individual stocks then ETF. Perhaps another 10 to 20% of portfolio.

Heh heh heh ... It can't be "irrational exuberance" yet, as a majority of investors are still pretty scared. Me too.

"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leo Tolstoy
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