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Old 11-07-2007, 06:28 PM   #221
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Panic never helps. Regret will seep in after rash decisions. Just always remember to take profits a little at a time and invest a little at a time. Pigs get fat hogs get slaughtered.
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Old 11-07-2007, 07:15 PM   #222
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Yea, it's getting more scary. Our portfolio value declines 2.36% from 10/31. DW says that we should consider getting out of the market.
Classic investor psychology, although pointing that out won't further improve the martial marital harmony.

I make a special "full disclosure" effort to inform my spouse of days like this just so that she's desensitized to them. If it's especially bad, instead of units of dollars I express it in units of possessions. ("Sorry, honey, full disclosure-- our portfolio is down a whole Prius today.") And it helps me share the load of dealing with my own investor psychology.

A year from now we'll be looking back on this with nostalgia: either from Dow 15,000 and thinking how little faith we had, or from Dow 12,000 and wondering how we could've been so blissfully ignorant.

The choices are learning to cope with the investor psychology issues or choosing another asset allocation...

Want2retire, there's a whole school full of thesis students who should thank you for giving them the opportunity to research this thread!
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Old 11-07-2007, 07:42 PM   #223
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The psychology does seem different this time. So far, the drop is smaller than August, but people seem more worried.

Is it oil at $100/bbl? Or giants like Citicorp getting cut in half by the housing bust? Or the dollar tanking? Or the prospect of a democrat in the whitehouse next year?

It's a real mystery.
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Old 11-07-2007, 08:37 PM   #224
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So much for diversity. Everything I own went down except the money market account and the cd's... :
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Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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Old 11-07-2007, 08:51 PM   #225
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Whatcha talkin bout? TIPS were up today. Up 9% YTD. Oh, that's right. You don't believe in TIPS.
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Old 11-07-2007, 08:59 PM   #226
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Incorrect my trollish friend...down .09%.

Never said I dont believe in tips. I dont believe they produce a 'real' rate of return, and at the current yields they're a lousy investment.

Oh thats right, you're the guy that bought 'a truckload' at a yield much lower than it is today!
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Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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Old 11-07-2007, 09:05 PM   #227
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Hmm, VIPSX is down, but my individual TIPS are up (and so is the TIP ETF). Looks like only maturities < 10 years went up today. The real yield has gotten pretty low recently. I wouldn't be a buyer right now, but it's nice to have something go up today.
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Old 11-07-2007, 09:08 PM   #228
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The real yield has gotten pretty low recently. I wouldn't be a buyer right now, but it's nice to have something go up today.
My memory is that many of us here who use a good portion of TIPS bought in or increased holdings last winter when the real yield was up around 2.75%. These are showing some appreciation now.

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Old 11-07-2007, 10:59 PM   #229
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So much for diversity. Everything I own went down except the money market account and the cd's... :
The only asset classes that were up for me today were gold, global bonds and bear market funds. U.S. Bonds and money market funds were flat. Everything else got killed. Biggest dive of the day: 5% for company stock (on the positive side, my company's 401K match used to be 12 shares per month, it's now 52 shares...).

Looking at futures, tomorrow looks rough too...
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Old 11-07-2007, 11:21 PM   #230
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CONGRATULATIONS!!! Sounds like ER really agrees with you.
Thanks. ... yes, I highly recommend this to everyone.
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Old 11-07-2007, 11:29 PM   #231
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My market neutral fund, HSGFX, was up better than 1% today. I'm a big believer in market neutral/long-short funds for days and/or periods like this.
A nice added diversification other than just slicing/dicing equity markets. I don't have the balls to actually go short - that would guarantee a 20% return on the major indexes, but I am willing to let someone who **hopefully** knows more than I do place some appropriate puts to protect assets on days like today...
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Old 11-08-2007, 12:25 PM   #232
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Cramer's 10 Reasons to Be Bullish - News & Analysis - Investing - AAPL - BHP

Cramer does a very good job of stating the bull case right now for anyone needing a reason to not worry about the market falling.
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Old 11-08-2007, 12:28 PM   #233
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Cramer's 10 Reasons to Be Bullish - News & Analysis - Investing - AAPL - BHP

Cramer does a very good job of stating the bull case right now for anyone needing a reason to not worry about the market falling.
To me the contrarian argument is the best. As Warren Buffett once said, "be greedy when people are fearful."

The more bearish sentiment there is, the more cash there is on the sidelines, and the more short positions are established (which must eventually be covered). All it takes is a little turn to the upside to get the cash back into the game, and then the shorts panic, get squeezed and pop the market higher.

It's when everyone's a raging bull that I get the most nervous.
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Old 11-08-2007, 01:06 PM   #234
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"1. The stock market is cheap. Most of the stocks I follow are in low or mid-teen multiples or at a price-to-earnings ratio vs. high growth rate that I regard as being just flat-out cheap, particularly when you consider a 4% 10-year Treasury. Retail at 10 times earnings? Lots of high-growth tech stocks at mid-teen multiples? It makes no sense to me."

"Stocks extended their losses Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned he expects a raft of economic troubles will cause business growth to slow"

Someone needs to remind Jim that the "E" part isnt guaranteed to keep growing at the same rate that it has been recently. That might explain why the "P" part looks cheap.

Cramer was pretty bullish in 2001 too. In fact, Cramer is bullish all the time. Hmm, every time I wrote "bullish" my fingers wanted to type "bullshit"...
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Old 11-08-2007, 01:19 PM   #235
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Believe it or not, the market sentiment is not very bearish right now. Take a look at the ERF Sentiment poll or, even better, the equity put/call ratio:

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/st...boe_eqpcr.aspx

ERF Market Sentiment Poll: 2007 Q4
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Old 11-08-2007, 08:44 PM   #236
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Believe it or not, the market sentiment is not very bearish right now. Take a look at the ERF Sentiment poll or, even better, the equity put/call ratio:

Option Trading Indicators: CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio - SchaeffersResearch.com

ERF Market Sentiment Poll: 2007 Q4
Rather naughty don't you think, using ER forumites as contrary indicators?

Ha
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Old 11-09-2007, 10:28 AM   #237
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If nothing else, the degrading market is doing one thing for me: it's helping me "beat the market" because of my holdings in bonds, cash and gold stocks. Of course, I'm still falling quite a bit, but not as much as Mister Market is overall...

As little as two weeks ago, my portfolio was losing to the S&P 500 by 2.5% (I've beaten it every year since 2001). Now I'm only trailing it by 0.48%.

If this keeps up, my streak may remain intact at the end of the year. Plus, I'm looking to put my mom's IRA back into the market and I'm seeing better and better entry points for DCAing some of it back in. I'm trying to see this half full Even if I did have to push my FIRE clock back one minute.
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Old 11-09-2007, 11:14 AM   #238
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Got a big raise effective this pay period, today is the day the 401k money buys into the market, so hey, I got to buy in on a sale!
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Old 11-09-2007, 11:52 AM   #239
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Got a big raise effective this pay period, today is the day the 401k money buys into the market, so hey, I got to buy in on a sale!
Congratulations on the big raise!! More money can be so helpful.
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Old 11-09-2007, 11:54 AM   #240
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Got a big raise effective this pay period, today is the day the 401k money buys into the market, so hey, I got to buy in on a sale!
That seems to be the opposite of my luck. We get paid on the 15th and the last of the month, and our contribution seems to go in somewhat randomly anywhere from 0-4 days after.

And I'lll be darned if the day the money invests isn't almost always a day when the Dow is up 200.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
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