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Old 11-09-2007, 05:45 PM   #241
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Sooo.... We're all happy, confident, boldly diversified buy-and-hold investors that are in this for the long haul, and nobody's concerned about today's ADDITIONAL fall, on top of the OTHER declines this week that almost brought the Dow back into the 12,000's, right?

We're all going to have a nice, relaxing, ever so peaceful and mellow long weekend and not think about the market even a teeny bit?

Good. I'll work on that.
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Old 11-09-2007, 05:48 PM   #242
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The ERF sentiment indicator is bullish: 48% bulls vs 39% bears. But the bears are very bearish.
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Old 11-09-2007, 05:48 PM   #243
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Yeah, you betcha!
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Old 11-09-2007, 05:50 PM   #244
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Well, hopefully those of us in the young dreamer category with decades to go are all calm, I certainly am. I do think if I was in withdrawal phase I'd be a little antsy, but I'd know selling now would be even dumber!
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Old 11-09-2007, 05:58 PM   #245
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Sooo.... We're all happy, confident, boldly diversified buy-and-hold investors that are in this for the long haul, and nobody's concerned about today's ADDITIONAL fall, on top of the OTHER declines this week that almost brought the Dow back into the 12,000's, right?

We're all going to have a nice, relaxing, ever so peaceful and mellow long weekend and not think about the market even a teeny bit?

Good. I'll work on that.
Well, this boldly diversified buy-and-hold investor who is and has been in for the long haul is certainly neither happy nor confident that we've seen the bottom of this slide.

However, in addition to my non-cola'd pension, I am very happy that I have a large bucket of cash equivalents that I anticipate I'll drain over the next four years so that I shouldn't have to sell any of my diminished portfolio for a good while.
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Old 11-09-2007, 05:59 PM   #246
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I have between 2 and 3 years expenses in reserve that the market has no effect on. I'm old enough to draw SS and don't, so, yep, this weekend is just like any other. Backups in computers and life are important. They give you a good nights sleep.
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Old 11-09-2007, 06:12 PM   #247
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It is an interesting time to be watching the markets.
My biggest fear is that Citibank will cut it's dividend.
My second biggest fear is that I don't buy more Citibank while the dividend is 6.5%
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Old 11-09-2007, 06:18 PM   #248
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Sooo.... We're all happy, confident, boldly diversified buy-and-hold investors that are in this for the long haul, and nobody's concerned about today's ADDITIONAL fall, on top of the OTHER declines this week that almost brought the Dow back into the 12,000's, right?

We're all going to have a nice, relaxing, ever so peaceful and mellow long weekend and not think about the market even a teeny bit?

Good. I'll work on that.
I consider myself diversified and have 7 years worth of expenses covered in cd's/cash, but it ain't easy watching this crap.
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Old 11-09-2007, 06:26 PM   #249
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Since I'm still able to pay all the bills with dividends and interest, I dont care a whole lot about market movements. Although I wish it'd go down 30% or so. I have an extra $50k I want to invest and I dont see anything I like yet.

That no-debt thing really pays off at times like this.
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Old 11-09-2007, 06:28 PM   #250
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Sooo.... We're all happy, confident, boldly diversified buy-and-hold investors that are in this for the long haul, and nobody's concerned about today's ADDITIONAL fall, on top of the OTHER declines this week that almost brought the Dow back into the 12,000's, right?

We're all going to have a nice, relaxing, ever so peaceful and mellow long weekend and not think about the market even a teeny bit?

Good. I'll work on that.
I don't know if I would say that I am happy but I actually did some buying yesterday. Even after today's fall I am quite unphased. Do I believe that the DOW has a good chance to reach 14,000 again in the next 10-15 years? You betcha. I am quite certain I will not lose a penny on the money I invested yesterday. Sure it is unnerving to see all those down days in a row. But I am quite confident that over the long term, this week's events will be forgetable. Well at least that's what I keep telling myself... As for this week end, I'll make sure to keep melow with some football and some beer.
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Old 11-09-2007, 06:32 PM   #251
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I held off all year at putting some money in a SEP-IRA. I finally did it today.
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Old 11-09-2007, 06:40 PM   #252
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The ERF sentiment indicator is bullish: 48% bulls vs 39% bears.
Unless you are a contrarian.

How accurate has the ERF been in predicting market swings?

-ERD50
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Old 11-09-2007, 06:55 PM   #253
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Unless you are a contrarian.

How accurate has the ERF been in predicting market swings?
We won't know for another 6 months.

Interestingly, it's giving a different signal than the put/call ratio, which recently went pretty high (which is considered bearish sentiment, and a bullish contrarian indicator).
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Old 11-09-2007, 06:58 PM   #254
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I just watch you guys and go the other way
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Old 11-09-2007, 06:58 PM   #255
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I hope that I havent jinxed the market - I did some buying and rebalencing today. It takes the sting out of the loss this week because of the possible upside. I will be much better off when the market gets to 14,000 again.... If the market continues to slide I am going into "don't look mode".
I don't have to sell any stocks or M funds for at least 7 years - so that is comforting. Yes I am going to have fun this weekend - you gotta keep a sense of humor/adventure and enjoy the ride!
No matter - this is way better than work -- I will make this retirement continue by hook or crook! Well maybe not crook - I am to fragile to go to prison :>)
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Old 11-09-2007, 07:07 PM   #256
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My mom has a Vanguard IRA that is almost entirely in money markets; when my dad was diagnosed as terminal a little more than two years ago he moved everything to cash from mostly stocks because she knows next to nothing about investing. I've recently taken POA on her investment accounts; she's 72 and reasonably healthy.

As the market falls, I take a chunk of it and put it into Wellesley and/or Wellington. I put another 10% of her portfolio into them today. She still has 70% in money market funds, but as I feel for good entry points and as money market yields fall in a panic, I get a little more invested. None of this is money she needs to live on, so it's worth getting some of it invested. My ultimate target is to get about 40-50% in stocks, but I don't want to go "all in" in this market.
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Old 11-09-2007, 07:37 PM   #257
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If nothing else, the degrading market is doing one thing for me: it's helping me "beat the market" because of my holdings in bonds, cash and gold stocks. Of course, I'm still falling quite a bit, but not as much as Mister Market is overall...

As little as two weeks ago, my portfolio was losing to the S&P 500 by 2.5% (I've beaten it every year since 2001). Now I'm only trailing it by 0.48%.

If this keeps up, my streak may remain intact at the end of the year. Plus, I'm looking to put my mom's IRA back into the market and I'm seeing better and better entry points for DCAing some of it back in. I'm trying to see this half full Even if I did have to push my FIRE clock back one minute.
WOW ... now that is really bending over backwards to see the bright side.
...best of luck to you ziggy. Sound like you may be a bit on the conservative side on your investments ... it may be time to look at tweaking the AA. ... just my 2 cents ... and worth every penny of it.
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Old 11-09-2007, 10:08 PM   #258
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WOW ... now that is really bending over backwards to see the bright side.
...best of luck to you ziggy. Sound like you may be a bit on the conservative side on your investments ... it may be time to look at tweaking the AA. ... just my 2 cents ... and worth every penny of it.
Well, the thing is, I did very well with my investments for many years -- as I said, my allocation has beaten the S&P every year since 2001 (heck, I was only down 5% in 2002), and my returns mostly kicked butt through most of the 1990s -- so I've started making my allocation slightly more conservative. I'd rather minimize my chance of a crash derailing my plans and goals than try to maximize my portfolio at the cost of a higher chance of meltdown. I'm 42 and I have about 25% in bonds and 8% in cash, which might be a tad on the conservative side for my age...but I also sleep better through periods like this one. I did well enough earlier that I don't need to put my capital at quite as much risk to still meet my long-term goals.

Still, it's going to be rebalance time in about a month. I need to sell a few thousand here, buy a few thousand there. Oh, and for what it's worth, at the end of today I was only trailing the S&P by 0.14%. I'm catching up! One more market bad hair day and the streak may live on! Wheeeee!
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Old 11-10-2007, 01:25 AM   #259
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For reasons that I can't really figure out, I am down only a little over 1% on the week.

I think we have entered a two tier market since August- Cramer's 4 Horsemen have been going to the moon. Even that tired old nag Henry Blodgett has been recycled to make outrageous "price targets" on GOOG, AAPL and RIMM. Doesn't anyone remeber what happened to his picks last time around?

Meanwhile back at the ranch, some very high quality stocks are on sale. I don't mean black-box banks. They may also be on sale but how would we know?

Look at Pfizer. Sure they have problems. Lipitor. the pharmaceutical commercial success of the century, faces strong generic competition from Zocor, and it will soon enough go off patent itself. But drug stocks ride a see-saw, one will be down for a while, then up for a while. Rarely does one go away, or stay down too long. Pfizer has doubled its dividend in the past 5 years-that's almost a CAGR of 15%-and it now yields more than a money market fund or a 10 year treasury. It is possible that the rate of increase will slow, or that they will even go a year or two without an increase, but it is highly unlikely that they would have to decrease the dividend. IMO, a great retirement stock on sale today.

There are many others, some more asset or price plays rather than yield.

Buy a put on GOOG, and buy outright some of these big strong stocks that have hit temporary rough times.

Ha
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Old 11-10-2007, 04:45 AM   #260
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Don't sweat the market. Laddered CD's are still paying 5.725% (about 1/2 of 1% gain EVERY month). Two COLA'd Annuities (SS and Military Retired Pay) and all is well. I am concerned about the falling dollar but, like gas prices, I cannot do much about it.
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