- Joined
- Apr 14, 2006
- Messages
- 23,059
The trend in residential investment will probably turn around in the next year.
The trend in residential investment will probably turn around in the next year.
I work for a multi billion dollar company in the housing industry. Last year our analysts predicted the recovery would begin in 2008. They have revised there predictions and and now expect housing to begin turning around late '09 into 2010. My company is taking appropriate actions to weather the storm which might last longer than expected.On what are you basing your projection?
The inventory of homes is still climbing. The sales of homes is still declining. Even if no new inventory came on the market and sales stayed at current levels, it would take almost a year to burn off the current inventory.
I think an RI turnaround in one year is optimistic. But even so, RI is a leading indicator. We still haven't seen the effects on consumption or commercial investment. If those get hit, it'll be safe to say economic growth is dead, earnings will be hit, and the stock market will be hating it.
Is it over yet?
But the entire economy does not hinge on residential investment.
The housing industry is a major factor in the economy. Not only for high paying construction and related jobs, but products for the home account for much of consumer spending and also the money made by lenders on mortgages. Housing has a direct and indirect effect on the economy.I don't know, as nobody really can until after the fact. But the entire economy does not hinge on residential investment.
The housing industry is a major factor in the economy. Not only for high paying construction and related jobs, but products for the home account for much of consumer spending and also the money made by lenders on mortgages. Housing has a direct and indirect effect on the economy.
The housing boom and refinancing created by extremly low interest rates are the only reason a recession was avoided the first half of this decade. The same low interest rates have created the major problems that we are facing now.
washingtonpost.com - nation, world, technology and Washington area news and headlines
On what are you basing your projection?
You asked what your chart shows.
I have a degree in Business and Quantitative Analysis from University of Wis. You don't have to have a degree to see what's going on. But you do have to have your eyes open. To ignore the obvious will get you nowhere.So where did you do your PhD Econ.?
I have a degree in Business and Quantitative Analysis from University of Wis. You don't have to have a degree to see what's going on. But you do have to have your eyes open. To ignore the obvious will get you nowhere.
Bully for you. But it is all too easy to over exaggerate what is going on in the enormous, diverse US economy.
FWIW, I thought the Fed over-tightened by pushing rates up to 5.25% and inverting the yield curve. The foolishness of excessively loose credit kept that from becoming apparent for a while, but now that that is over, it has become painfully obvious that the Fed did overdo it. But there is an obvious solution: whackety whack. At this point, I imagine we will see Fed funds down to 4% or possibly less in 2008.
If she would only go to a charity event and waddle her shaven torso all spraddle-legged into the waiting lenses of the photogs i could be buying heavy today!
Bully for you. But it is all too easy to over exaggerate what is going on in the enormous, diverse US economy.
FWIW, I thought the Fed over-tightened by pushing rates up to 5.25% and inverting the yield curve. The foolishness of excessively loose credit kept that from becoming apparent for a while, but now that that is over, it has become painfully obvious that the Fed did overdo it. But there is an obvious solution: whackety whack. At this point, I imagine we will see Fed funds down to 4% or possibly less in 2008.
Over- exaggerate? I think people have been misled and the true scope of the problems we are facing have been swept under the rug. This economy is based on consumerism and much of that spending is for durable goods and other home related products. Cutting interest rates to keep the market from collapsing can only be a short term fix for so long. We are in unchartered waters right now. We are at war, the internet and housing booms are over, government spending is out of control, interest rates were at an historical low and now on the rise, the value of the dollar is plummetting, oil prices are skyrocketing, the first baby boomers are starting to collect social security, high paying jobs are leaving the country, immigrants are driving down wages, we are becoming a service oriented economy, we don't make anything here anymore, the trade deficit is climbing and the national debt is rising. To predict that the stock market will continue to rise because it always has before doesn't work anymore. The NASDAQ is still half of what it was in 2000. Someday the DOW could follow suit. Cutting interest rates is not the miracle cure all for the economy.
I'm keeping my football indicator - and plan to DCA thru whatever happens!
And maybe a little windex for my crystal ball.
heh heh heh - ying and yang wise.
Geez, you're right and the sky really is falling. It's amazing how all the blissfully ignorant have survived this long.Over- exaggerate? I think people have been misled and the true scope of the problems we are facing have been swept under the rug. This economy is based on consumerism and much of that spending is for durable goods and other home related products. Cutting interest rates to keep the market from collapsing can only be a short term fix for so long. We are in unchartered waters right now. We are at war, the internet and housing booms are over, government spending is out of control, interest rates were at an historical low and now on the rise, the value of the dollar is plummetting, oil prices are skyrocketing, the first baby boomers are starting to collect social security, high paying jobs are leaving the country, immigrants are driving down wages, we are becoming a service oriented economy, we don't make anything here anymore, the trade deficit is climbing and the national debt is rising. To predict that the stock market will continue to rise because it always has before doesn't work anymore. The NASDAQ is still half of what it was in 2000. Someday the DOW could follow suit. Cutting interest rates is not the miracle cure all for the economy.
Geez, you're right and the sky really is falling.
Do you have an opinion on the subject or not. It kind of funny how irate some people get when others point out the problems this country is facing. It's almost like they would rather be kept in the dark and let their faith carry them through. I never said we wouldn't survive, but I do expect some tough times ahead and I am ready for it.Geez, you're right and the sky really is falling. It's amazing how all the blissfully ignorant have survived this long.
An economy based on "consumerism". What the #$%^ else would an economy be based on? I'm not even going to touch that "unchartered waters" comment, although I suspect that the 20th century affords ample precedent for your assessment of the world's ability to survive your other dire reporting.
Luckily the Plunge Protection Team is taking care of us all today, and we can't even tell...
Keep posting those economic summaries, because without them we wouldn't have a wailing wall of worry to gather around. I'm going to keep sniffing around for 75-cent dollar bills under the flashing-blue-light-specials, the ones where the crowds are running away screaming from the "On Sale Now!" signs. Doesn't seem like much consumerism in action there.
I thought you were an economist. You sure don't act like one. Or maybe you're a faith-based economist.Have dogs and cats started living together, too?
Do you have an opinion on the subject or not. It kind of funny how irate some people get when others point out the problems this country is facing. It's almost like they would rather be kept in the dark and let their faith carry them through. I never said we wouldn't survive, but I do expect some tough times ahead and I am ready for it.