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Record Dow! Whee!
Old 10-01-2007, 02:16 PM   #1
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Record Dow! Whee!

I know we're not SUPPOSED to feel happy due to the fact that the Dow is over 14,000. Stocks are no longer on sale at a blue light special, and all that.

But I can't wait to see how my TSP fared! What a guilty pleasure, but pleasure nevertheless. Despite the housing bust and other economic woes, I am back to where I had hoped I would be by this time of year.

Laissez les bons temps rouler! 8)
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Old 10-01-2007, 02:33 PM   #2
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Here we go again. Suppose there will be a big sell-off tomorrow?
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Old 10-01-2007, 02:35 PM   #3
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Probably so. I thought there was going to be a sell-off today.
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Old 10-01-2007, 03:02 PM   #4
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Even without today's gain, I've averaged over 13% annual gain for the last five years. True, the start of the five year period was right about at the bottom, but it's still good to notice and appreciate good performance when it happens.
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Old 10-01-2007, 03:17 PM   #5
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Back to where I wanted to be as well. October suppose to be a volatile month though. Hold on tight.
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Old 10-01-2007, 03:34 PM   #6
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Back to where I wanted to be as well. October suppose to be a volatile month though. Hold on tight.
As if this summer wasn't volatile enough.
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Old 10-01-2007, 03:44 PM   #7
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I sold everything in a small cap mutual fund today, to put in my "house in the mountains fund". Since I'm buying it in less than two months -- hopefully -- it seemed prudent.

It was cool not having to expect it to fall tomorrow.
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Old 10-01-2007, 03:49 PM   #8
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It was cool not having to expect it to fall tomorrow.
Ah, but if it goes up 2% tomorrow...
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Old 10-01-2007, 04:12 PM   #9
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If so

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Ah, but if it goes up 2% tomorrow...
I'll sigh.

But it doesn't matter, in my back of the envelope approach to life. Selling today I'm up on what I expected to have, so I have to use another envelope to work it again, see which fund to take less from. Nice problem. I'll take it!
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Old 10-01-2007, 04:29 PM   #10
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I am skeptical of the market. It was tanking just a few weeks ago. Then the FED started pumping money into the economy and lowered key interest rates. Is the economy truly sound or will some major profit taking occur in the next few weeks? I would not be surprized if there is a sizable correction for we have not felt the full force of the housing bust and credit crunch yet.
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Old 10-01-2007, 04:46 PM   #11
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I suspect that the US market will trend down next year because of election worries. Regardless of your political viewpoints, its hard not to concede that one party rule, by either party, has a disastrous track record. So I expect the US market to be down big next year and into '09. When it comes to the predictability of the investment climate, the government that governs least is indeed the one that governs best.

Of course we're not market timers, so I'll just be upping our international AA to oh, about 80% of equities...
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Old 10-01-2007, 05:12 PM   #12
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A complete disconnect from reality the market. Housing is in the tank crude is over 80 and headed toward 100 a barrel. gasoline will be over 4 dollars a gallon next spring and summer driving season and housing will still be sinking the dollars is toast, yes everything is roses.

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Old 10-01-2007, 05:22 PM   #13
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A complete disconnect from reality the market. Housing is in the tank crude is over 80 and headed toward 100 a barrel. gasoline will be over 4 dollars a gallon next spring and summer driving season and housing will still be sinking the dollars is toast, yes everything is roses.

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What he said...

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Old 10-01-2007, 05:55 PM   #14
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Presidential Election Cycle shown in the paper may constitute an anomaly in the US. stock market, which could be useful for investors. ...
www.econ.cuhk.edu.hk/dept/seminar/06-07/2nd-term/Presidential_Election_Cycle.pdf - Similar pages



The stock market usually goes up in a Presidential election year .
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Old 10-01-2007, 09:50 PM   #15
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I suspect that the US market will trend down next year because of election worries. Regardless of your political viewpoints, its hard not to concede that one party rule, by either party, has a disastrous track record. So I expect the US market to be down big next year and into '09. When it comes to the predictability of the investment climate, the government that governs least is indeed the one that governs best.
Of course we're not market timers, so I'll just be upping our international AA to oh, about 80% of equities...
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The stock market usually goes up in a Presidential election year .
Geez, FG, what Moemg said. Neither party has even started priming the pump for the pre-election rallies. And as the dollar plummets against the pump-priming, unhedged international funds should do quite well.

Or maybe it started today.

Up 7% YTD... but I'll concede your point about 2009.
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Old 10-01-2007, 10:48 PM   #16
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I am skeptical of the market. It was tanking just a few weeks ago. Then the FED started pumping money into the economy and lowered key interest rates. Is the economy truly sound or will some major profit taking occur in the next few weeks? I would not be surprized if there is a sizable correction for we have not felt the full force of the housing bust and credit crunch yet.
Wait until Thursday (European Central Bank news on interest rate) or Friday (employment data).
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Old 10-01-2007, 10:56 PM   #17
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Dow 14,000 ... is not a big deal compared to the return of emerging markets (VWO-- 38.39%). I wonder when the fun ride be over?
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Old 10-02-2007, 12:56 AM   #18
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I didn't have much international before so decided to get some. Now my portfolio is way overweight in Emerging Markets and has made me 60K YTD. I just watch in amazement, this is fun. Between my taxable and ROTH I made 5,300 today and can't wait for morning to see my 401K gain.
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Old 10-02-2007, 07:59 AM   #19
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One word of caution regarding the International market is the old say'ing "when the US sneezes the rest of the world gets a cold". I have seen it time and again. It is easy to get excited about the international markets I am using it to your advantage. I am holding true to my % allocations and will selloff my winners, including international holdings to buy some area's of poorer performance, like Bond funds.
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Old 10-02-2007, 09:56 AM   #20
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Of course we're not market timers, so I'll just be upping our international AA to oh, about 80% of equities...
US goes down, don't you think we'll bring the rest of the world with it?
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