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Rehab and recovery
Old 07-15-2008, 11:44 AM   #1
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Rehab and recovery

(thought I'd put a cheerful title on this and Panic and Sky Actually Is Falling have already recently been used )

So in my wishful thinking part of my brain I'm thinking we're bottoming out right about.... now. For this minute the Dow is toying with green numbers instead of red (and I have no idea why). Perhaps our economic rehab is already in place and we'll be recovering soon. So what would you see as the road to recovery--

a gradual increase of a few points at a time over a long period, or a few nice big bumps out of the gate--or other options?

I'm thinking the gradual increase so people who have been waiting to get out of the market don't jump on a surge and knock us back down.

I also don't know historically how recoveries have behaved.
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Old 07-15-2008, 11:54 AM   #2
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It does seem true that conditions today indicate a short-term bottom. The VIX finally made it above 30, we dropped pretty low this morning and are recovering, people were selling oil and gold, and Jim Cramer is screaming "This Irrational Market Scares Money Away!".

But note the qualifier short-term. There still could be another leg or two down. Things are pretty bad out there and I think we should expect to see more bank failures and more bad housing news and credit problems among other things. There is just too much c$r@p to work through and the powers that be have been making a hash of things.

I think it would be too optimistic to expect to see true signs of recovery until maybe a year from now. Usually the market bottoms well before the economy shows true signs of recovery, but still it's probably a ways away.

Just go do something else (fun!) for a year - LOL!

Audrey
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Old 07-15-2008, 12:00 PM   #3
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So funny that you say this, Audrey:

Quote:
Just go do something else (fun!) for a year - LOL!
DH is considering volunteering for a severance package that is basically a year's paid vacation, which is coming 2.5 years earlier than our retirement timetable. I'm going to tell him Audrey said, do it
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Old 07-15-2008, 12:02 PM   #4
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As long as you guys have the ready cash funds to cover a couple of years bear market, go for it!

Audrey
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