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Re: REITs: boom or bust
Old 06-18-2005, 05:27 PM   #21
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Re: REITs: boom or bust

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Originally Posted by Notth
Yet conventional wisdom also says that when short term rates rise, long term rates should also. When they dont, really really bad things are supposed to happen. Yet Sir Greenspan suggests that is not the case this time (the bad stuff happening).

So given that conventional wisdom is wrong twice so far in this matter, why wouldnt it be possible that the conventional wisdom regarding reits and interest rates also falter in this matter.
Well, when people consider REITs as investments, they aren't saying "well, I can stick this money in a REIT for long-term investment/income, or I can stick it in a 30 day CD" - they look at long-term instruments/rates. So, in that respect, it doesn't matter if the yield curve is Mt. Everest or a pool slide (wildly inverted) - all that matters is the long term rate. Same as a 15/30 year mortgages - it doesn't matter what short-term rates are, but rather primarily long-term rates, since that is what the financiers are using to underwrite their mortgages. They won't tack on an extra 3% to their 30 year rate simply because short-term rates are as high as long-term, since they can still fund the mortgage using a 30 year funding interest rate.

So, it doesn't matter if Greenspan is right, wrong, or insane. The major influence on how REITs do in the next 5 years is what long-term rates do in the future. (IMO)

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Also, is there any way possible I could be associated with a different kind of bug rather than a grasshopper? I just cant shake this lime green thing.
(time for another mental image of 95 year old Asian kung fu grand master in a white robe...or should it be Greenspan? )

Ah, grasshopper, must be patient. Once, caterpillar say to grand master "Master, I want to be faster. I want to be bigger. I want to be better looking." So, grand master show caterpillar how to spin cocoon and grow into butterfly. Caterpillar spun cocoon and turn into butterfly. Butterfly emerge from cocoon. Start to fly, say "Oh, look at me, I move faster, I am bigger, I look better." Five second later, butterfly go "splat" on car winshield.

Moral of story: patience, grasshopper, patience.
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Re: REITs: boom or bust
Old 06-18-2005, 05:37 PM   #22
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Re: REITs: boom or bust

Patience my butt - the Norwegian widow is praying every night for the darn REIT Index to go down so she can get a decent dividend/payout rate - the little old lady wants a new pair of shoes.

Again - if you are a true blue slice and dicer ala the Four Pillars crowd - who cares about up and down as long as your asset correlation doesn't get out of whack.

Down baby, down! - so I can buy some more NXL at 12% yield in my putz stocks.
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Re: REITs: boom or bust
Old 06-18-2005, 06:12 PM   #23
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Re: REITs: boom or bust

The way I see it: My job is to find reliable income streams for retirement. My paid for home is part of this because what was once a debit to the income stream--a mortgage--is now gone. I look for diverse streams. REITs are a possibility, but if rents dry up or decrease, my income goes down. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I trust US bond income more than I trust renter income--retail, apartments, or commercial.

I'm figuring that if the USA defaults on its bonds, I'll get all those new fangled Depends from California when I forclose. Boy, will I be ready for that asteroid.
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Re: REITs: boom or bust
Old 06-18-2005, 09:45 PM   #24
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Re: REITs: boom or bust

Off topic,

Maybe 25% allocation to REIT is high. Reducing its exposure is not a bad idea. My allocation is about 11%.

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Re: REITs: boom or bust
Old 06-18-2005, 10:05 PM   #25
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Re: REITs: boom or bust

So's mine.
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Re: REITs: boom or bust
Old 06-19-2005, 09:32 AM   #26
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Re: REITs: boom or bust

Mine, too...

About 6% US, 5% intl.
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Re: REITs: boom or bust
Old 06-19-2005, 02:04 PM   #27
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Re: REITs: boom or bust

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Originally Posted by Off Topic
...The old adage that I read years ago was that investors should maintain 10% of their portfolio in gold, real gold.* This is done not to make money but to have a safe haven--an historically stable asset--if the world gets hit by an asteroid--or just if something unexpected happens.* Not like that will ever happen to anyone. In our times, many people overlook gold as an investment device.
I'm new here at EarlyRetirement and I'm very interested in gold. Where is best place to go for gold? Happens I am about 10% invested in REIT and have cash equal to about 10% of net worth that I am looking to put somewhere. Was thinking i-bonds at 4.8% but could be seduced by gold. Present gold holdings? One Kruggerand, one Swiss credit, both inherited, tucked away in mint condition. I'm open to advice. -Zer
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Re: REITs: boom or bust
Old 06-19-2005, 02:13 PM   #28
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Re: REITs: boom or bust

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Originally Posted by bennevis
What does everyone think of REITs ?* * I've owned them for quite a while now and have done reeeeaaaaallllllyyy well with them !* * I have stuff like HCP, FRT, EOP, NNN, and ASN.... Ray
I've been watching CEI since it fell in my lap in 2000. Started buying more shares a year or so ago. Am watching it rise as I exchange comments with a few folks at YahooFinanceCEI, some of whom like it a lot and others yell SELL SELL SELL! I'm not exactly easy with it, as the Annual Report shows rather a lot of Related Party Transactions at a lending rate of 2.52%. But it returns 8%div.

I'm interested in hearing more about REITs, as I teeter on the brink of selling CEI if it hits 20. Why? I bought at 15.5 and 16, so NOT selling seems like a bad decision. I'd plan on picking it up again at around 15 or 16, as I like the return. But I can see that it's a house of cards. Even I can see that in the Annual Report. But what isn't shaky today?

Hey, for some of us, a REIT is as close as we will come to owning real estate! So it goes. -Zer
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Re: REITs: boom or bust
Old 06-19-2005, 02:28 PM   #29
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Re: REITs: boom or bust

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* I'm new here at EarlyRetirement and I'm very interested in gold.* Where is best place to go for gold?
Post at the FundAlarm discussion board to ask Rono & Jughead to guide you to the gold. Make sure to include the term "mutual fund" in your question so that the moderator doesn't delete your post, but once you get Rono's & JH's e-mail addresses they'll deluge you with info.

Rono is a 40-year numismatist and very knowledgable on metals, mining stocks, & coins.

Jughead is a diehard gold investor. I think he also caches freeze-dried food & shotgun shells but his advice mostly consists of thoughtful questions with links to gold websites.
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