Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
reliable sources for market forecasts
Old 09-25-2011, 11:32 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 391
reliable sources for market forecasts

What are reliable sources for market forecasts? I know one cannot time, but how I wish we'd scraped off profits when we were up 27% rather than sitting having lost that plus another 2% (on stocks, not whole portfolio).
Reading yesterday that the market is to fall until 2017 and not return to 2010 levels until 2027
protect-young-investors-from-baby-boom-bust-reuters: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance
leaves me both depressed and bewildered. Depression easy to figure out--more years working current job--but bewildered because I have no way to evaluate such info. Could be true, could be total bologna. Where do you suggest to get sober, perhaps not totally reliable (who knows the future?) but no-axe-to-grind info?
__________________

__________________
palomalou is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 09-25-2011, 11:39 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
youbet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 9,965
Educate yourself on the basics of economics and finanace. Read, watch and listen to a wide variety of sources of economic and financial current events. Then, make your own decision as to where YOU think the markets will go.

After this doesn't work for ya........ Learn about diversified portfolios, build one and hang on.
__________________

__________________
"I wasn't born blue blood. I was born blue-collar." John Wort Hannam
youbet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-25-2011, 11:54 AM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 391
After this doesn't work for ya........ Learn about diversified portfolios, build one and hang on.[/QUOTE]

Did that part.
My problem is, when things aren't going so well I feel compelled to work harder.
__________________
palomalou is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-25-2011, 12:21 PM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
youbet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 9,965
Quote:
Originally Posted by palomalou View Post

Did that part.
My problem is, when things aren't going so well I feel compelled to work harder.
That's likely a bit of a problem for all of us.

Take a look at the output graphs from some assorted FireCalc runs. Note that even portfolios that are destined to survive 100% of the time usually have scary dips and breath-taking climbs. Note too, that more conservative portfolios, although the distribution of results is tighter, have higher failure rates if the equity percentage is too low.

I still get nervous with market volatility, but I've finally convinced myself that volatility is the norm and try to grin and bear it.

I do subscribe to a market timing newsletter but can't say I've ever made any large moves because of advise given there.
__________________
"I wasn't born blue blood. I was born blue-collar." John Wort Hannam
youbet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-25-2011, 01:21 PM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 3,862
As far as market predictions over periods of weeks, I wouldn't believe anyone trying to predict the markets.

As for economic predictions over the next year or so, I have found some success with the latest 2007 - 2011 dips. I was just learning in 2001, so no record other than investing during the bottom for that drop. I pulled significant amounts (30+%) out of equities in early 2007 (when I retired) just to watch the markets go up 10% before finally tanking. I was also able to pull a good amount (10+%) out of equities in 2011 as the market peaked. It wasn't too hard to see these big problems ahead, though the exact timing and the market's response is a whole other story.

The next problem is when to get back in. I don't know. I just add something like 20% of my free cash back into equities for every 5% to 10% market drop from the peak, very mechanical. Depends on how deep I think the market might fall. So if the market continues down I can buy more, if it goes back up I was able to purchase some shares at a reduced price. If you feel excited about investing in equities after they've dropped 40% and show no signs of heading back up then this is a strategy your might like. I do.

I think I'd be happy if I hit the peak within 15% and the bottom within 15%. Obviously this is not something you want to do if it's just a 20% dip, you might end up losing money over simply holding equities if you didn't call the top and bottom pretty closely. Not something I'd put more than 50% of my equity investments into either, partly due to risk and partly due to logistics and costs. You might also consider temporary hedges like bear market funds or gold or inverse-market ETF's. I've only done the first two. That way you can take a smaller amount of cash out but still get a bigger effect.

If you don't want to do something like that, consider just rebalancing when you think the market has hit bottom (and at peaks). You'll see some gain from that and risk much less. It seemed to me that many people had difficulty with that during 2008 and 2009, not willing to increase equity holdings as they dropped.
__________________
Animorph is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-25-2011, 01:22 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Chuckanut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 6,334
Quote:
Originally Posted by palomalou View Post
Reading yesterday that the market is to fall until 2017 and not return to 2010 levels until 2027
How does the writer know this? Did he or she given any facts, academic studies or other evidence to support this claim? Past performance does not necessarily predict the future if I recall correctly. So, I ask again: How does the writer KNOW this?
__________________
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
Chuckanut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-25-2011, 01:27 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Chuckanut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 6,334
For what it is worth, in the 70's we were all fearing Global Cooling. Rememver that? Canada would stop producing any food to export. The USA would only produce enought for its own population, etc.....

Oh, and remember the social unrest of the 60's and 70's? There would be chaos in the cities of the nation by the 80's. Get you gun, food and gold, and go hide out in some rural area, the cities were doomed.
__________________
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
Chuckanut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-25-2011, 07:04 PM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
JPatrick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,494
I predict tomorrow will bring a nice snap-back rally.
__________________
JPatrick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-25-2011, 07:17 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,118
Quote:
Originally Posted by JPatrick View Post
I predict tomorrow will bring a nice snap-back rally.
I predict tomorrow will be Monday...
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-25-2011, 07:37 PM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
JPatrick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,494
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
I predict tomorrow will be Monday...
What's that song??
Another 100 Degree Monday, da, da, da..
__________________
JPatrick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-25-2011, 10:50 PM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 11,019
I hear that crystal balls are quite good.....
__________________
Meadbh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-25-2011, 11:05 PM   #12
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,905
Quote:
Originally Posted by Meadbh View Post
I hear that crystal balls are quite good.....
Yes, my crystal ball is almost as good as a magic 8-ball.... look deep into it and you will see many mysteries.

__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2011, 08:28 AM   #13
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 136
When I was born, the Dow Jones Industrial average was just a few hundred points. Last week, it was over ten-thousand.

My prediction is that the stock market will continue on this upward "trend."
__________________
TN_INVEST is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2011, 08:32 AM   #14
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,467
Quote:
Originally Posted by Meadbh View Post
I hear that crystal balls are quite good.....
Must resist temptation...
__________________
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2011, 08:37 AM   #15
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Eastern PA
Posts: 3,851
Quote:
Originally Posted by palomalou View Post
What are reliable sources for market forecasts?
IMHO, there are none.

Forecasts are built upon images in the rear-view mirror. You can say, with certainty what was - not what will be (except for death and taxes ).

As for myself/DW? We invest broad-based, against all sectors and countries. It's a bit like being at the roulette table (for those that ever played) and you split your bet against red/black, four numbers, or columns.

The "sucker bet" is the direct bet. While paying 36-1, it's a rare occurance and only should be "played" with chips you are willing to loose.

Heck, gold (the next "best investment") dropped over 10% in the last three days. Our (broad based) investments did much better.
__________________
rescueme is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2011, 08:58 AM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
JPatrick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,494
Quote:
Originally Posted by Meadbh View Post
I hear that crystal balls are quite good.....
Not with our winters.....
__________________
JPatrick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2011, 09:02 AM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,118
Quote:
Originally Posted by JPatrick View Post
Not with our winters.....
Remember weatherman Jud Ashmore's warnings to viewers on cold nights to "bring in your brass monkeys"?
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2011, 09:07 AM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
JPatrick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,494
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Remember weatherman Jud Ashmore's warnings to viewers on cold nights to "bring in your brass monkeys"?
I remember, but I never understood it until now...
__________________
JPatrick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2011, 09:14 AM   #19
Recycles dryer sheets
OrcasIslandBound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Poway, CA
Posts: 441
Sometimes, even if a market is completely flat, we can still do o.k. through dividends. Take the following example, while not up to date (it goes only through August 31, 2011, so is too optimistic right now), this example shows how important dividends can be. This is of an IRA over a 5 year period ending August 31, 2011:
Attached Images
File Type: jpg IRA 2006 - 2011.jpg (39.0 KB, 20 views)
__________________
OrcasIslandBound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2011, 09:16 AM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,977
Quote:
Originally Posted by palomalou View Post
Could be true, could be total bologna. You got it, true for any predictions.

Where do you suggest to get sober, perhaps not totally reliable (who knows the future?) but no-axe-to-grind info? There's no such consistently reliable source. All will get it right sometimes, none will get it right consistently. If there was a good source, they and all their followers would be richer than Bill Gates.
You figure out your risk profile and then AA, manage that, and you're done.

If you're really talented and want to spend a great deal of time at it, you can read the economic and financial tea leaves and make odds on investment moves and hope to be right more often than you're wrong. But you'll still be wrong some percentage of the time. And I'd be surprised if 0.01% of the investing population was actually capable of this. More people do themselves harm trying this, and have to learn the hard way.
__________________

__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:08 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.