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Old 01-15-2016, 05:37 AM   #221
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Off topic, but love Canmore. Spent a winter there (renting) and skied Lake Louise all winter. Gorgeous part of the world. Top ten drive: Icefields Parkway.


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Yes, I agree. That drive up to Jasper is truly breathtaking. Have done it a few times in a convertible.
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Old 01-15-2016, 05:50 AM   #222
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"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful." (George Box). DW and I are perfect examples of the dilemma of longevity planning. My first episode of stage 4 colon cancer was in 1993, when I was told to get my affairs in order. I had a 3% chance of survival and an estimated 6 weeks to 6 months to live. 2007 I had my second, it was "only" stage 3. Just this past December I had another major cancer surgery, fortunately stage 1. My genetics have a known defect, so I will in all likeliness get it again.

3 years ago DW had stage 4 breast cancer. They wouldn't even give her an idea of longevity, they always said "let's just get through this week". She'll be on maintenance chemo the rest of her life, however long that might be. Statistically the new drugs have extended life to about 6.5 years. Yet in some cancer forums she's met some with similar circumstances who surpassed 20.

Actuary tables don't help us much. Family history doesn't in her case. In mine, I've lived longer than any of the men in previous generations except 1, so family history says I ought to be gone already.

I will ER this year, once I am fully recovered. I am fortunate to have good retirement benefits, so health care will not be a huge burden. How long am I planning for? I just use the 30 year model (I will be 60 this year). I doubt I'll make it 10 years, but a lot can happen in medicine in that time, and I've beat the odds already enough to know that spending everything I've got in 10 years would not be wise. DW could make it 3 more years or 20 - who knows? And to the OP point, various models with various assumptions put me anywhere between 80% - 100% success probability. Good enough for me. If we're gone in 10 years, there will be an estate for the kids. As long as we're having a happy retirement, that's OK with me. I also have gained confidence through this forum that I can make any adjustments along the way if the models change, so I don't fret about running out of money.

Who knows what the future brings? For me, it brings a happy retirement in 2016!
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Old 01-15-2016, 06:59 AM   #223
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A very good friend who is a pretty well known wealth manager who specializes in retired and near retired told me this a few years ago:

After working with HUNDREDS of retired folks over the years I can safely say to my newly minted 60 year olds....Guys..when you turn 60 you have ABOUT 10 maybe 15 years left that you can do all those things on your list that you have talked about for 20 years. Sure ..some will only have 5, some will be a robust 85 BUT the vast majority of the 60 and beyonds that I have worked with and known for decades of experience have only had about 10 years to git er done. Once you hit your 70's, especially around 75, you just don't have the energy or the desire to take that trip to Upper Outer Inner Lower Slobovia..you just don't have the energy or desire to see every major league ball park...on and on...

I watched my parents and all of my aunts and uncles plus their friends go thru the retirement years ( they are now all gone). Some died early but a lot lived till their 90's BUT virtually none of them did a lot of the type of activity that we all have on our lists ( see $$$$) much past their mid 70's.
My "planning" is all based on hitting it hard for the next 10 years and then let nature and the finances take its course.
I don't think I have read a better argument for retiring early as this. We all like to believe we will be the exception but most of us will not, especially males. I have long thought around age 70 would be the time I move from living in a small ranch house to a condo. Let someone else mow the lawn, shovel the driveway and do the upkeep.
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Old 01-15-2016, 07:22 AM   #224
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We also live in a mountain town (Canmore Alberta about 5,000 ft) and here activity is the norm even for older people. We see people biking/running/hiking/skiing all the time. You don't necessarily have to be an athlete, just keep your legs strong so you can get around.
I went through a rough patch for my left leg with a torn Fascia, then an infected spider bite, then a broken bone in the foot. Has taken a concerted effort to restore mobility but I have made it!

You are so right about the importance of mobility to maintaining good health.
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Old 01-15-2016, 07:28 AM   #225
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A very good friend who is a pretty well known wealth manager who specializes in retired and near retired told me this a few years ago:

After working with HUNDREDS of retired folks over the years I can safely say to my newly minted 60 year olds....Guys..when you turn 60 you have ABOUT 10 maybe 15 years left that you can do all those things on your list that you have talked about for 20 years. Sure ..some will only have 5, some will be a robust 85 BUT the vast majority of the 60 and beyonds that I have worked with and known for decades of experience have only had about 10 years to git er done. Once you hit your 70's, especially around 75, you just don't have the energy or the desire to take that trip to Upper Outer Inner Lower Slobovia..you just don't have the energy or desire to see every major league ball park...on and on...

I watched my parents and all of my aunts and uncles plus their friends go thru the retirement years ( they are now all gone). Some died early but a lot lived till their 90's BUT virtually none of them did a lot of the type of activity that we all have on our lists ( see $$$$) much past their mid 70's.
My "planning" is all based on hitting it hard for the next 10 years and then let nature and the finances take its course.
Ran into an old guy in a bar a few years back who told me the same thing: "ok, you're 60 now...even if you live to be 90, do you realize that you have only 15 or 18 good summers left to do the things you want to do?...After that things start to go wrong..."

One of those things you know but never really realize until someone hits you over the head about it.
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Old 01-15-2016, 07:57 AM   #226
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Just found out last night that SIL, same age as I,62, has a large, very likely malignant brain tumor...

OMY? screw that...
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Old 01-15-2016, 08:23 AM   #227
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A very good friend who is a pretty well known wealth manager who specializes in retired and near retired told me this a few years ago:

After working with HUNDREDS of retired folks over the years I can safely say to my newly minted 60 year olds....Guys..when you turn 60 you have ABOUT 10 maybe 15 years left that you can do all those things on your list that you have talked about for 20 years. Sure ..some will only have 5, some will be a robust 85 BUT the vast majority of the 60 and beyonds that I have worked with and known for decades of experience have only had about 10 years to git er done. Once you hit your 70's, especially around 75, you just don't have the energy or the desire to take that trip to Upper Outer Inner Lower Slobovia...
Great advice. I'm almost 63 and DH is 77. Fortunately, we've been traveling together since we met in 1997. DH has limitations now that he didn't have when he was 60 and some of our expeditions, such as climbing Arthur's Seat in Edinburgh, couldn't be done together now. We realized when I retired at age 61 that a trip to Australia and NZ, always a plan for after retirement, would be too much for him. We still do road trips and he happily does all of the driving, and with careful planning and pacing (and my doing the more strenuous stuff on my own) we can still travel internationally, but I am SO glad we didn't hold off till I retired.

I come from more durable stock and am hoping to travel well into my 70s (and 80s?), but there are no guarantees.
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Old 01-15-2016, 08:27 AM   #228
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Clearly there are exceptions to the averages, but it certainly seems to me that 80 appears to be a real turning point for most whereby the decline begins in earnest. Certainly was the case for my own parents despite the fact that they "lived" deep into their 80's.


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Old 01-15-2016, 08:37 AM   #229
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Yes, I agree. That drive up to Jasper is truly breathtaking. Have done it a few times in a convertible.
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Had 2 weeks in Banff, Yoho, & Jasper parks a couple years ago. Absolutely stunning mountain scenery. My most popular photos came from there.
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Old 01-15-2016, 08:48 AM   #230
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Ran into an old guy in a bar a few years back who told me the same thing: "ok, you're 60 now...even if you live to be 90, do you realize that you have only 15 or 18 good summers left to do the things you want to do?...After that things start to go wrong..."
I guess that's the way I looked at it too, until I hit my early 60's. I figured I'd be good to go and do anything I wanted until my mid 70's. Since then I've had to re-balance my "projected" AA (Age Activities) to be more in line with my new AA (Actual Abilities). I've played hard during the first few years of my retirement and I don't regret it for a minute. I may make it to 90+ based on my family history (but probably not). I'm adjusting, but not just using "summers" to do the things I want. Spring, fall and winters work too. (so far)
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Old 01-15-2016, 08:50 AM   #231
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Originally Posted by aggie76 View Post
A very good friend who is a pretty well known wealth manager who specializes in retired and near retired told me this a few years ago:

After working with HUNDREDS of retired folks over the years I can safely say to my newly minted 60 year olds....Guys..when you turn 60 you have ABOUT 10 maybe 15 years left that you can do all those things on your list that you have talked about for 20 years. Sure ..some will only have 5, some will be a robust 85 BUT the vast majority of the 60 and beyonds that I have worked with and known for decades of experience have only had about 10 years to git er done. Once you hit your 70's, especially around 75, you just don't have the energy or the desire to take that trip to Upper Outer Inner Lower Slobovia..you just don't have the energy or desire.
I am 56 and DW is 55. We are still a year out from RE, but we realized this issue and started taking big trips 6 years ago. We have been to Europe a couple times and to the national parks out west and in Canada. I like to get off the road and do some hiking for the views. We know that we will get to a point where we cannot do that any more and we wanted to get a start on the list.

The photo is from a trail in Rocky Mountain National Park.
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Old 01-15-2016, 10:11 AM   #232
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Not sure but there are a couple of possibilities. Many mountain towns are travel destinations that attract a lot of young transients because of the hospitality jobs. They are often quite active. Climate might be a factor but I often see people in Canmore wearing shorts in the winter? So not sure.
I think culture and self-selection are huge factors. Climate too as winter in places like the front range can be way milder than a mid-west/north east winter.

I also thought altitude itself suppresses hunger. Front range is only at 5k feet so the effect might be small (compared to hikers in Nepal) but you're there 24/7 and a small effect could add up over the years.
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Old 01-15-2016, 10:14 AM   #233
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I am 56 and plan to ER in 2017.
Had an issue with sciatica nerve last year and since then joined the gym. I feel my legs have gained strength because of the leg exercises I have been doing. Also have lost ~ 8 lbs and feel lighter, stronger and better. I appreciate this forum--have learned a lot from you all!
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Old 01-15-2016, 10:37 AM   #234
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I'm planning for 35 but am not going to be surprised if it is shorter. Dad passed away at 72, mom at 86. I'm healthier than both were at my age, so I figure I'll go somewhere in between them. DW's dad died at 70 but her mother and most of her uncles an aunts are still active in their late 80s and earlier 90s.

Years ago I started looking at folks who were still healthy and active in their 70's and 80's and made some lifestyle adjustments with better eating, more physical activity, and less mental stress. We have loosened up our spending but are still LBYM. I still plan to retire next year but, though working, have formulated a "glide path" that is much less stressful and is allowing me a nice transition to retirement. Even if Megacorp downsizes (again) and I am let go, it will still work into our plans.

No one can predict a long future for themselves, but no reason not to try, and sometimes the journey in trying is a lot of fun in itself.
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Old 01-15-2016, 11:09 AM   #235
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Clearly there are exceptions to the averages, but it certainly seems to me that 80 appears to be a real turning point for most whereby the decline begins in earnest. Certainly was the case for my own parents despite the fact that they "lived" deep into their 80's.


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Agree. Unless you know you have a likely life shortening illness, you really have to go with established averages or norms. My generation does seem more active than our parents but eventually...... Our current spending plan only includes dividends and pension so unless we ramp up spending (quite possible) we will never run out. The question really is "what do you enjoy doing?" You want to make sure you get your fill of that while you can.
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Old 01-15-2016, 11:14 AM   #236
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I also thought altitude itself suppresses hunger. Front range is only at 5k feet so the effect might be small (compared to hikers in Nepal) but you're there 24/7 and a small effect could add up over the years.
Interesting, never thought of that. When I go back to Canmore after being away for a while my workouts are real killers. Conversely, when I leave Canmore for say Ontario, I feel like a superman. Never really noticed the hunger thing.
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Old 01-15-2016, 02:14 PM   #237
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I think culture and self-selection are huge factors. Climate too as winter in places like the front range can be way milder than a mid-west/north east winter.



I also thought altitude itself suppresses hunger. Front range is only at 5k feet so the effect might be small (compared to hikers in Nepal) but you're there 24/7 and a small effect could add up over the years.

Well all I can say is I never noticed a change in appetite (&#128545 and we spent a combined ten years in Jackson WY (6,000 +) and Bend OR (3,500+).


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Old 01-15-2016, 02:21 PM   #238
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I don't eat as much in Az (2000') as I do in Il at 500'. Could be altitude related- or it could be temperature related. I do notice the altitude difference in hiking, biking or running between the 2 places.


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Old 01-15-2016, 03:00 PM   #239
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Can I blame altitude for the five pounds I've gained since leaving CO?


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Old 01-15-2016, 03:30 PM   #240
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Can I blame altitude for the five pounds I've gained since leaving CO?


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BINGO! I had the same experience! I gained over 20 pounds in the 12 years I lived in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia (altitude 12 ft). Unfortunately, I haven't lost it all since moving back to Colorado. (altitude 8700 ft)

I'm sure it had nothing to do with being in Virginia during my 50s and early 60s.
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