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Old 01-10-2016, 10:46 PM   #61
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I recently posted asking people working in the construction trades to post their pension options they chose and why, and in that post I mentioned a conversation with a fellow union carpenter wife who's husband recently retired and she tells me she was told by the people they sat down with to discuss the pension options that men don't live very long after retirement (sorry that's a run on sentence).
I have heard comments hinting that "people die soon after retirement", but it really doesn't pack much meaning. Is it supposed to mean that retiring leads to an early death? I doubt that, but sometimes that is the implication. Things that enter into the discussion:
-- People who get sick (cancer, a debilitating illness or chronic poor health, etc) are likelier to retire soon if they are able. They are also likelier to die relatively young It's not the retirement that killed them.
-- Similarly, people who are poor are likely to delay retirement until they can no longer physically work. It's not the retirement that kills them.
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Old 01-10-2016, 10:48 PM   #62
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My great grandmother, grandmother, and grandfather on my dad's side all lived past 90. I take after my dad, so I have to hope my portfolio will last that long.
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Old 01-10-2016, 11:01 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by hnzw_rui View Post
I'm curious, why cat food? Is it much cheaper than people food? Because I know some of the meals my mom cooks (for family of 4) cost less than $5 for raw ingredients and there's usually plenty of leftovers.

Instant ramen is like 30 cents.
It's just a saying for chrissakes.

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I used to eat a lot of Tuna. Always cheaper than cat food.
Tuna 14.8 cents an ounce Great Value Chunk Light Tuna in Water, 5 oz, 4 ct - Walmart.com

Cat food 7.2 cents an ounce 9Lives Seafood and Poultry Favorites Wet Cat Food Variety Pack, 5.5-Ounce Cans (Pack of 24) - Walmart.com

Eat for 1/2 price.
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Old 01-10-2016, 11:37 PM   #64
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Full disclosure, stirring the pot, saved well, retiring at 55 in a few months, adhere to diversification, withdrawal rate strategies and 95 planning, reflecting on what i feel is the absurdity of it all sometimes, when your at the finish line you reflect a bit, maybe i am nuts,,,
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Old 01-11-2016, 04:20 AM   #65
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I think Moneygrubber has a point and it is something I have thought about. How many of us have run FIRECALC over and over again looking to be sure we 100% probability of success with various scenarios taking us all the way out to age 95?

According to the CDC, from data that is 10 years old, a white 50 year old male has a 5.4% chance of living to 95. A 60 year old white male making it to 85m only 35% chance. Odds of living to or past age 85 for a while make are not good. It's kind of sobering to read, calculate and contemplate.

As far as having the money for a balcony suite in a nursing home. My experience with all my relatives who have entered such facilities is that either due to pain, immobility or dementia they were no longer able to enjoy the smallest things in life. If your lucky you might still enjoy the taste of food or a conversation with a friend or loved one.

So, whether we admit it or not it seems many of us, myself included are very afraid of running out of money. A fear some say is stronger than death. Does it really make sense to have a plan with 100% probability of success for a less than 20% chance of surviving to that age. Or should we lighten up a little and use 90 to 85%?

Of course if one of our goals is to leave an inheritance for children then planning a 100% to age 95 or even 100 makes sense.

Here is where I found the stats for probability of surviving to a particular age.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr58/nvsr58_21.pdf
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Old 01-11-2016, 05:33 AM   #66
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My Dad passed at 57 and all his siblings died before age 65.
Mom is still out dancing at 86, sharp as a tack and her father was still riding a bike at 92.

Unfortunately, I take after my Dad physically but he was a heavy smoker and I never have so...hoping for the best, preparing for the worst.
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Old 01-11-2016, 07:05 AM   #67
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Planning for an eventuality isn't the same as predicting...
Absolutely. If after a couple decades you have more money then you need, then do more, give more, leave more.

“Plans Are Useless, But Planning Is Indispensable”. Gen. Dwight Eisenhower
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Old 01-11-2016, 07:07 AM   #68
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Operating on the principle that what does not kill me makes me stronger, I try to live dangerously and have as many near-death experiences as possible.

I estimate that each close call increases my life expectancy by a measurable percentage.
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Old 01-11-2016, 07:30 AM   #69
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I think Moneygrubber has a point and it is something I have thought about. How many of us have run FIRECALC over and over again looking to be sure we 100% probability of success with various scenarios taking us all the way out to age 95?

According to the CDC, from data that is 10 years old, a white 50 year old male has a 5.4% chance of living to 95. A 60 year old white male making it to 85m only 35% chance. Odds of living to or past age 85 for a while make are not good. It's kind of sobering to read, calculate and contemplate.

As far as having the money for a balcony suite in a nursing home. My experience with all my relatives who have entered such facilities is that either due to pain, immobility or dementia they were no longer able to enjoy the smallest things in life. If your lucky you might still enjoy the taste of food or a conversation with a friend or loved one.

So, whether we admit it or not it seems many of us, myself included are very afraid of running out of money. A fear some say is stronger than death. Does it really make sense to have a plan with 100% probability of success for a less than 20% chance of surviving to that age. Or should we lighten up a little and use 90 to 85%?

Of course if one of our goals is to leave an inheritance for children then planning a 100% to age 95 or even 100 makes sense.

Here is where I found the stats for probability of surviving to a particular age.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr58/nvsr58_21.pdf

My point exactly.😊


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Old 01-11-2016, 07:45 AM   #70
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Wa....wa....wa....wait a minute. Are you saying I'm gonna die?
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Old 01-11-2016, 08:19 AM   #71
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After reading this thread, I have concluded that there are three little words, which have the ability to strike fear into the hearts of most (all) LBYM Early Retirerees: "But... what if".

Sadly, I am not immune from this tendency. Indeed, one might argue that the trait is essential to amassing wealth. For without it, you would just spend.


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Old 01-11-2016, 08:26 AM   #72
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David Bowie dead at 69. John Wayne dead at 72. Elvis dead at 42. Jimmy Stewart dead at 89. Michael Jackson dead at 50. Fred Astaire dead at 88. Dean Martin dead at 78. Bruce Lee dead at 32. Elizabeth Taylor dead at 79. Bing Crosby dead at 74. Farrah Fawcett dead at 62.
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Old 01-11-2016, 08:33 AM   #73
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David Bowie dead at 69. John Wayne dead at 72. Elvis dead at 42. Jimmy Stewart dead at 89. Michael Jackson dead at 50. Fred Astaire dead at 88. Dean Martin dead at 78. Bruce Lee dead at 32. Elizabeth Taylor dead at 79. Bing Crosby dead at 74. Farrah Fawcett dead at 62.

You left off the most compelling person, which summarizes the problem: Jesus Christ. He was dead at 33, but resurrected days later only to be immortal. Try running FireCalc on that scenario...🤔


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Old 01-11-2016, 08:35 AM   #74
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David Bowie dead at 69. John Wayne dead at 72. Elvis dead at 42. Jimmy Stewart dead at 89. Michael Jackson dead at 50. Fred Astaire dead at 88. Dean Martin dead at 78. Bruce Lee dead at 32. Elizabeth Taylor dead at 79. Bing Crosby dead at 74. Farrah Fawcett dead at 62.
George Burns, Bob Hope, and Queen Elizabeth (the Queen Mother) all lived past 100.


The plural of anecdote is not data.
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Old 01-11-2016, 08:37 AM   #75
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I can play, too!

77 Actors & Actresses who died over the age of 90
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Old 01-11-2016, 09:11 AM   #76
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You left off the most compelling person, which summarizes the problem: Jesus Christ. He was dead at 33, but resurrected days later only to be immortal. Try running FireCalc on that scenario...🤔


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Lol!


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Old 01-11-2016, 09:13 AM   #77
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beware of false prophets (and armchair statisticians)
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Old 01-11-2016, 09:24 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by shotgunner View Post
I think Moneygrubber has a point and it is something I have thought about. How many of us have run FIRECALC over and over again looking to be sure we 100% probability of success with various scenarios taking us all the way out to age 95?

According to the CDC, from data that is 10 years old, a white 50 year old male has a 5.4% chance of living to 95. A 60 year old white male making it to 85m only 35% chance. Odds of living to or past age 85 for a while make are not good. It's kind of sobering to read, calculate and contemplate.

As far as having the money for a balcony suite in a nursing home. My experience with all my relatives who have entered such facilities is that either due to pain, immobility or dementia they were no longer able to enjoy the smallest things in life. If your lucky you might still enjoy the taste of food or a conversation with a friend or loved one.

So, whether we admit it or not it seems many of us, myself included are very afraid of running out of money. A fear some say is stronger than death. Does it really make sense to have a plan with 100% probability of success for a less than 20% chance of surviving to that age. Or should we lighten up a little and use 90 to 85%?

Of course if one of our goals is to leave an inheritance for children then planning a 100% to age 95 or even 100 makes sense.

Here is where I found the stats for probability of surviving to a particular age.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr58/nvsr58_21.pdf

Well stated and I agree. The point is that the running out of money or not is somehow controllable or at least more so than the day the grim reaper pays his visit.

It's the desire to control the environment that mankind, since the beginning of time, has attempted.

What's interesting is that the financial future is actually no more predictable than the day the grim reaper visits...

Our financial paradigms are most often based on myopic USA view of life and markets and economy. Hyper inflation of Germany or Argentina etc are not often considered. Nor are lost decades ala Japan. Nor are asset bubbles like tulips of holland. Nor are calamities such as Ebola epidemics, or a super virus wiping out the population. Those all actually happened. To think they can't happen here is burying our heads.

The moral in my mind is yes planning is ok but don't spend your entire life planning for life. Go out and live it. Every day.
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Old 01-11-2016, 09:25 AM   #79
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Plan for the worse, hope for the best, and spend somewhere in between.
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Old 01-11-2016, 09:33 AM   #80
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Well stated and I agree. The point is that the running out of money or not is somehow controllable or at least more so than the day the grim reaper pays his visit.

It's the desire to control the environment that mankind, since the beginning of time, has attempted.

What's interesting is that the financial future is actually no more predictable than the day the grim reaper visits...

Our financial paradigms are most often based on myopic USA view of life and markets and economy. Hyper inflation of Germany or Argentina etc are not often considered. Nor are lost decades ala Japan. Nor are asset bubbles like tulips of holland. Nor are calamities such as Ebola epidemics, or a super virus wiping out the population. Those all actually happened. To think they can't happen here is burying our heads.

The moral in my mind is yes planning is ok but don't spend your entire life planning for life. Go out and live it. Every day.

Nor for that dopey 17 year old texting while you cross the street...


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