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Rising mortgage interest rate effect on home values
Old 12-19-2018, 07:43 AM   #1
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Rising mortgage interest rate effect on home values

What is everyone’s thoughts on how the slowly rising mortgage interest rates will affect housing values?

Will it decrease or increase housing values?

Is now a good or bad time to buy? What about to sell?

Just curious to hear the RE’s thoughts on the subject.
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Old 12-19-2018, 10:19 AM   #2
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Tell us what you think. Local markets will react differently. Rising rates will generally suppress prices on homes. Most folks are limited by mortgage payment amount.
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Old 12-19-2018, 10:21 AM   #3
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It has already caused a drop in housing prices in many parts of the country.
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Old 12-19-2018, 10:51 AM   #4
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Please provide a scenario where higher interest rates would increase housing values. I can't think of one.

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Old 12-19-2018, 12:35 PM   #5
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People will keep buying houses for as long as they can make the payments. And some even if they can't. Many will remember 17% mortgage rates and people bought houses even then.
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Old 12-19-2018, 12:45 PM   #6
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Looking to buy next year for cash, so let the rates rise for potential price suppression.
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Old 12-19-2018, 12:47 PM   #7
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People will keep buying houses for as long as they can make the payments. And some even if they can't. Many will remember 17% mortgage rates and people bought houses even then.
But payments are going up for a given house, so people end up buying a cheaper house. Price pressure is downwards.
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Old 12-19-2018, 01:33 PM   #8
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Another factor is that a lot of people aren't interested in giving up the 3% interest rate for a 5 or 5.5% rate, so this only exasperates the problem(s).
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Old 12-19-2018, 01:39 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by younginvestor2013 View Post
What is everyone’s thoughts on how the slowly rising mortgage interest rates will affect housing values?

Will it decrease or increase housing values?

Is now a good or bad time to buy? What about to sell?

Just curious to hear the RE’s thoughts on the subject.
These questions kill me. Clearly, all else being equal, which it rarely will be, house prices move inversely to mortgage interest rates.

Ha
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:16 PM   #10
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Another factor is that a lot of people aren't interested in giving up the 3% interest rate for a 5 or 5.5% rate, so this only exasperates the problem(s).
I don't follow....what are these rates?
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:19 PM   #11
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I don't follow....what are these rates?
Guessing that they have a current 3% mortgage, which they don't want to give up in trading up to a bigger house along with a higher current interest rate.
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:30 PM   #12
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What is everyone’s thoughts on how the slowly rising mortgage interest rates will affect housing values?
We've been looking at homes 90 minutes north of us. It's been a demand based vs. cost based housing market with values at least 2x what they're really worth. With thousands of new and existing homes just sitting on the market, values are due for a downturn.

Will it decrease or increase housing values? They've been due for a decrease in some "hot" markets.

Is now a good or bad time to buy? Bad time to buy. Great time to sell if you can find a buyer with enough down payment.

Just curious to hear the RE’s thoughts on the subject.
I understand commercial building is still strong. But home building in many markets has cooled, and framers and carpenters are working but don't have 2-3 houses lined up in front of them to build.
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:44 PM   #13
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But payments are going up for a given house, so people end up buying a cheaper house. Price pressure is downwards.
Yep exactly.
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:49 PM   #14
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... Many will remember 17% mortgage rates and people bought houses even then.

Many OLD people will remember.
But many home buyers weren't born yet in the mid-1980's.
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Old 12-19-2018, 03:15 PM   #15
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Many OLD people will remember.
But many home buyers weren't born yet in the mid-1980's.
I remember when I bought my first home in '83. I was lucky to get a mortgage subsidized by a state bond issue for 1st time homeowners at ~12% Everybody said mortgage rates would never drop below 10%. It was a LCOL area which makes a huge difference. There was a lot of owner financing going on at the time.

I guess that makes me OLD.
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Old 12-19-2018, 03:25 PM   #16
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I can't remember what I paid for a house loan rate in 1984. At that time I built my own home and had a construction loan and not sure if that was the same as a conventional home loan or not. I know I just took the bills in and they paid them for material etc. and had 6 month's before I had to start any monthly payment plan.

Interesting that 10 to 12% interest rates for the 80's, must have not bothered me much.
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Old 12-19-2018, 03:55 PM   #17
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12.25% fixed for my first purchase (co-op) in 1983.
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Old 12-19-2018, 04:27 PM   #18
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My opinion only:
Housing will lead the way to a down economy, and perhaps the lead to a multi year recession. Probably not as bad as some previous down times, but the tumbledown effect of higher interest rates does not simply mirror the Fed rate increase.
Some of us recall 14% mortgage rates, but that will certainly not be the case, so we have to look at what happens when rates rise even moderately.

People have to live... somewhere. Not buying means rentals. As rental rates rise, there is no compensatory lessening of the non-homeowner's expenses. No "extra" money going in to the economy.

Those home owners who DO move, by choice, or necessity, face higher interest rates and the probability of losing money on the sale of their prior home. Longer market times, lower prices. So yes... a nicer, more valuable home, but nothing that will affect the economy directly.

At the same time, the sharp reduction in housing starts, doesn't help the economy in any positive manner.

Historical data and charts purporting to forecast the housing effect may be an indicator, but getting down to the nitty gritty of the hows and whys may be a simpler indicator for the future.
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Old 12-19-2018, 04:29 PM   #19
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I was able straight assume a 12% VA loan in December 1983 ( wow, 35 years from the closing). You could never get a loan that way today. I had to put up about $10,000 in equity and pay $35 to the title company for the paperwork. This was a bargain since interest rates were in the 14-15% area if you could get a loan at all. Today's rates are still a bargain. The Fed has a long way to go before they really choak the economy.
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Old 12-19-2018, 04:30 PM   #20
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...

People have to live... somewhere. Not buying means rentals. As rental rates rise, there is no compensatory lessening of the non-homeowner's expenses. No "extra" money going in to the economy.
...

It moves from the renters pocket to the landlords pocket... so the landlord has "extra" money to put into the economy, such as buying/building more rentals.
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