Lsbcal
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Shown below is a famous American who said that.
I was looking at previous rising rate periods and have convinced myself that things will not be that bad with intermediate bond funds. As Alfred once said "life is no fun if you don't stick your neck out once in awhile".
Below shows how things went in some rising rate periods for (1) an intermediate Treasury fund, (2) Vanguard Total Bond Mkt VBTLX, (3) Pimco Total Return PTTRX, and (4) Dodge and Cox Income DODIX. All numbers are percentages.
For example, starting Nov 2010 there was a 1.0% rise in the 5 year Treasury (from 1.2% going up to 2.2%). Even though the durations were around 3 to 5 years for the funds, they didn't do as bad as the Treasury rise might imply (5 year duration x 1.0% might imply -5% return). Those active funds PTTRX and DODIX held up pretty well. The green shows the winner for the rising rate period (DODIX in the first line).
I know, "this is just history" one might say -- but that is all we have to go on.
Full disclosure: I own the active bond funds PTTRX and DODIX. Most of my equities are indexed.
I was looking at previous rising rate periods and have convinced myself that things will not be that bad with intermediate bond funds. As Alfred once said "life is no fun if you don't stick your neck out once in awhile".
Below shows how things went in some rising rate periods for (1) an intermediate Treasury fund, (2) Vanguard Total Bond Mkt VBTLX, (3) Pimco Total Return PTTRX, and (4) Dodge and Cox Income DODIX. All numbers are percentages.
For example, starting Nov 2010 there was a 1.0% rise in the 5 year Treasury (from 1.2% going up to 2.2%). Even though the durations were around 3 to 5 years for the funds, they didn't do as bad as the Treasury rise might imply (5 year duration x 1.0% might imply -5% return). Those active funds PTTRX and DODIX held up pretty well. The green shows the winner for the rising rate period (DODIX in the first line).
I know, "this is just history" one might say -- but that is all we have to go on.
Full disclosure: I own the active bond funds PTTRX and DODIX. Most of my equities are indexed.