Focus
Full time employment: Posting here.
- Joined
- Oct 10, 2009
- Messages
- 640
The latest volleys:
Rekenthaler Report on Morningstar - Dec. 4
Rekenthaler Report on Morningstar - Dec. 5
After reading all the posts and discussions (including the previous one on our forum), I'm left with one question.
Looking at Kitces' chart of 4% WR 30-year success rates, I see a 95.1% success rate for gliding from 30% to 70% stocks in retirement. Sticking to a constant 60/40 mix (my current plan), the success rate is 93.2%.
In our search for perfection and certainty (fruitless, it can be argued), it's tempting to embrace the precision that calculated numbers seem to give. But is a 1.9 percentage point difference in success rates really significant? If this were a FIRECalc result, I wouldn't think much of it. Am I missing something?
Rekenthaler Report on Morningstar - Dec. 4
Rekenthaler Report on Morningstar - Dec. 5
After reading all the posts and discussions (including the previous one on our forum), I'm left with one question.
Looking at Kitces' chart of 4% WR 30-year success rates, I see a 95.1% success rate for gliding from 30% to 70% stocks in retirement. Sticking to a constant 60/40 mix (my current plan), the success rate is 93.2%.
In our search for perfection and certainty (fruitless, it can be argued), it's tempting to embrace the precision that calculated numbers seem to give. But is a 1.9 percentage point difference in success rates really significant? If this were a FIRECalc result, I wouldn't think much of it. Am I missing something?