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Old 06-03-2011, 12:29 AM   #41
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What Nords said...

Oy. Maybe for a swing trading stock. I dunno if I'd buy it hoping the punditverse is right and MSFT will break up/get a new CEO/announce a crazy high dividend, though.

Yeah, I trade ranges sometimes and its at the lower end of the range. I sold Intel on the upside last week and thought this may be a "safer" bet on the downside of the range...we'll see. $24.25 is my buy price, fyi.
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Old 06-03-2011, 06:22 PM   #42
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Yeah, I trade ranges sometimes and its at the lower end of the range. I sold Intel on the upside last week and thought this may be a "safer" bet on the downside of the range...we'll see. $24.25 is my buy price, fyi.
I sure that must be a typo but why would you want to pay more than the market price?
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Old 06-03-2011, 07:02 PM   #43
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I dunno if I'd buy it hoping the punditverse is right and MSFT will break up/get a new CEO/announce a crazy high dividend, though.
If it were only that simple.

I wonder if Steve Jobs took medical leave hoping to get a call for help from Ballmer...
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Old 06-04-2011, 09:57 AM   #44
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I sure that must be a typo but why would you want to pay more than the market price?
That was my purchased price on Thursday...it was a limit order, just not limit enough, right?
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Old 06-04-2011, 11:34 AM   #45
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If it were only that simple.

I wonder if Steve Jobs took medical leave hoping to get a call for help from Ballmer...
Ballmer doesn't need help, he needs to be replaced. Jobs would be an ideal candidate.
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Old 06-04-2011, 04:33 PM   #46
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I continue to buy MSFT hoping nothing major changes about the business. I want them to ignore Wallstreet as much as possible and just avoid throwing too much money away on bad ideas.

Just keep printing money, buying back stock, and raising the dividend.

If they would refrain from throwing away money on silly purchases like Skype and just exit the online search business I would be thrilled.

I may end up being the only shareholder of Microsoft and Cisco by the end

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What Nords said...

Oy. Maybe for a swing trading stock. I dunno if I'd buy it hoping the punditverse is right and MSFT will break up/get a new CEO/announce a crazy high dividend, though.
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Old 06-04-2011, 06:20 PM   #47
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I may end up being the only shareholder of Microsoft and Cisco by the end
You will be a very rich person.
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Old 06-04-2011, 09:12 PM   #48
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I continue to buy MSFT hoping nothing major changes about the business. I want them to ignore Wallstreet as much as possible and just avoid throwing too much money away on bad ideas.
Don't we all. I'm not sure what gives hope in any of those areas.

A year ago ClifP and I had lunch with a Microsoft employee vacationing in Waikiki.

He told us of the time when his division shipped their project and had no further work in the pipeline. (I think he's an arcane cell-phone communications firmware or wireless network design engineer.) MSFT essentially kept him on the payroll for six months, with weekly musters, until they had something for him.

We couldn't tell if that was because MSFT was too bloated & ossified to cut payroll, or afraid he'd end up working at Apple, or just didn't care about any dollar amount under seven figures.

He's early-retiring soon.
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Old 06-05-2011, 09:47 AM   #49
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From a June 1998 Vanity Fair interview with Bill Gates where he commented on Steve Jobs
Quote:
“What I can’t figure out is why he (Steve Jobs) is even trying (to be the CEO of Apple)? ” wondered Bill. “He knows he can’t win.”
Link provided by The Big Picture I, Cringely » Blog Archive » Masters Tournament - Cringely on technology

Steve Jobs has exactly the executive skill set MS needs.
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Old 06-06-2011, 10:41 AM   #50
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That's the beauty of Microsoft's business. It doesn't require any brilliant business management.

They pretty much make money hand over fist no matter what they do.

The core money making parts of their business really haven't changed in any meaningful way in 15+ years.

And despite all the talk of big changes coming, I suspect that they will still be making money in much the same way 15 years from now.


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Don't we all. I'm not sure what gives hope in any of those areas.

A year ago ClifP and I had lunch with a Microsoft employee vacationing in Waikiki.

He told us of the time when his division shipped their project and had no further work in the pipeline. (I think he's an arcane cell-phone communications firmware or wireless network design engineer.) MSFT essentially kept him on the payroll for six months, with weekly musters, until they had something for him.

We couldn't tell if that was because MSFT was too bloated & ossified to cut payroll, or afraid he'd end up working at Apple, or just didn't care about any dollar amount under seven figures.

He's early-retiring soon.
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Old 06-07-2011, 08:53 AM   #51
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And despite all the talk of big changes coming, I suspect that they will still be making money in much the same way 15 years from now.
Thinking about the changes from '96 to now, you really think it'll be similar to now in 2026?
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Old 06-07-2011, 09:52 AM   #52
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What has really changed for Microsoft's business since '96?

They still sell Windows and Office, and have a near monopoly market share in the business world for those products.

They've experienced a large amount of growth on the server side of the business, and have a promising new business with the X-box/Kinect product.

They waste money trying to compete in search, and periodically try to waste a lot of money on goofy stuff (Skype, Yahoo).

I suspect that if you go into a corporate office in 2026, you will see Windows 15 on the desktop and Office 2024 running on it. They'll still be wasting money trying to get into a business that they have no advantage in (hopefully it won't still be search).

People are talking about the fast pace of change, but large businesses really don't change unless they absolutely have to. Most of the businesses that I have worked for are still stuck using their Mainframes because it is too painful to change. They aren't going to move away from Windows and Office anytime soon.


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Thinking about the changes from '96 to now, you really think it'll be similar to now in 2026?
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Old 06-07-2011, 09:59 AM   #53
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Steve Jobs is an innovator, but Microsoft is not an innovative company, and will never be one.

Steve Jobs would be a horrible fit for Microsoft.

Microsoft needs to keep milking their existing cash cows while avoiding making large missteps. I don't think Steve Jobs would be satisfied doing that.

If you want innovation, buy Apple. It's worked out very well, and it will continue to work out well as long as they stay innovative.

The beauty of Microsoft's business is that they don't have to innovate to make money.

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From a June 1998 Vanity Fair interview with Bill Gates where he commented on Steve Jobs
Link provided by The Big Picture I, Cringely » Blog Archive » Masters Tournament - Cringely on technology

Steve Jobs has exactly the executive skill set MS needs.
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Old 06-07-2011, 12:31 PM   #54
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Steve Jobs is an innovator, but Microsoft is not an innovative company, and will never be one.

Steve Jobs would be a horrible fit for Microsoft.

Microsoft needs to keep milking their existing cash cows while avoiding making large missteps. I don't think Steve Jobs would be satisfied doing that.

If you want innovation, buy Apple. It's worked out very well, and it will continue to work out well as long as they stay innovative.

The beauty of Microsoft's business is that they don't have to innovate to make money.
Microsoft's business was founded on innovation and then grew based on clever marketing. Now it is doing neither. It doesn't need to innovate to make money, but it does need to innovate to survive.

What they did to IBM is now being done to them, and basically for the same reason - they are focused on preserving what they have while the world is evolving.

MS clearly acknowledges this with its efforts to break into new markets. Its inability to replicate the success it had with Windows or Office shows that they have not been able to turn those achievements into core competencies.

They may be able to change this. To do so, however, they first need to change their senior executive team.
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Old 06-07-2011, 01:40 PM   #55
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What they did to IBM is now being done to them...
Hey, all IBM had to do was say "Oh, by the way, that's an exclusive license for IBM PCs... and can you show us how you've copyrighted your DOS? 'Cause we've heard some bad things about your BASIC interpreter, and we're not sure this is gonna work out."
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Old 06-07-2011, 06:45 PM   #56
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Hey, all IBM had to do was say "Oh, by the way, that's an exclusive license for IBM PCs... and can you show us how you've copyrighted your DOS? 'Cause we've heard some bad things about your BASIC interpreter, and we're not sure this is gonna work out."
One of many opportunities IBM missed. Actually, what I should have said was ...

What IBM did to itself Microsoft is now doing to itself...
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Old 06-08-2011, 01:30 PM   #57
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It's not like things have worked out so horribly for IBM.

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One of many opportunities IBM missed. Actually, what I should have said was ...

What IBM did to itself Microsoft is now doing to itself...
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Old 06-08-2011, 01:55 PM   #58
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It's not like things have worked out so horribly for IBM.
Lets talk Xerox:
They had ethernet, PC with GUI interface using a mouse, all pre IBMPC days...their management laughed at the engineers stating "who would want a computer on their desk connected to other computers".
Real visionaries they were.

IBM:
the driving force of the IBM PC who was a VP at the time died in a plane crash in Texas, after that no executive really wanted it, because mainframes were the place to be!!
Another IBM story, IBM had it's own network protocol (SNA), the executive at the time (1990) stated the internet would be SNA in 5 years. 5 years later, she was fired, and SNA was all but dead. And IBM's IP routers were years behind a start-up called CISCO.

What can we take away from these stories, good visionarys in management is hard to find, that's what makes Jobs special.

TJ
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Old 06-08-2011, 03:34 PM   #59
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What I take away from the IBM story is that a company can be a decent investment without having a shred of vision.

I hate IBM with a passion from my professional life, but they make a lot of money simply because large companies have huge switching costs. They still make money from Lotus Notes and Mainframes

At current prices, Microsoft doesn't need to innovate to be a really good investment. They just need to keep milking the Windows and Office cows.

If they manage to stumble into a winner like X-box/Kinnect, so much the better.


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What can we take away from these stories, good visionarys in management is hard to find, that's what makes Jobs special.

TJ
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