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Old 01-16-2016, 08:21 AM   #61
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He might have lost his appetite if he knew it was going to be his last meal. Not sure what I'd do if I knew I only had hours to live, but eating probably wouldn't be high on my list.
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I highly doubt that as one's lights are going out any consideration of the last meal's quality is considered.
Dad's point was that you should live as well as you can each day.

As the 80's band Shooting Star once wrote: "Today could be your last chance to be good to yourself..."

Uncle was a miser who could've afforded a great meal every day...his last meal on earth was a crappy Chop Suey sandwich and a can of Coke. What a sad way to leave.
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Old 01-16-2016, 08:26 AM   #62
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So, will RBS make a "Buy everything!" announcement? At a price lower than the ones when they said "Sell everything!" Somehow I have my doubts.




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When I see this type of volatility, it makes me suspect institutional traders are playing a role in driving the market down to get the weak hands to sell, so they can buy back at lower levels. At least the US economy does not yet smack of recession, so I am not ready to panic from this correction. It would only take OPEC cutting output or another form of disruption in the oil supply chain to make things take off again, although that sounds almost counter-intuitive.
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Old 01-16-2016, 08:58 AM   #63
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When I see this type of volatility, it makes me suspect institutional traders are playing a role in driving the market down to get the weak hands to sell, so they can buy back at lower levels. At least the US economy does not yet smack of recession, so I am not ready to panic from this correction. It would only take OPEC cutting output or another form of disruption in the oil supply chain to make things take off again, although that sounds almost counter-intuitive.
Actually, I think the institutional traders drove the markets way up with the "Fed put" of QE and low rates. Now that the party is over, some of the hot air is coming out of the balloon. Oil price crash helped spur this on, as has China representing slowing global growth. To me the current action just says the US equity markets got way ahead of themselves.
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Old 01-16-2016, 11:03 AM   #64
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Actually, I think the institutional traders drove the markets way up with the "Fed put" of QE and low rates. Now that the party is over, some of the hot air is coming out of the balloon. Oil price crash helped spur this on, as has China representing slowing global growth. To me the current action just says the US equity markets got way ahead of themselves.
Yes, but they work it both up and down, which can lead the average joe investor to make bad decisions and certainly the Fed is culpable as well.
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Old 01-16-2016, 12:43 PM   #65
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When I see this type of volatility, it makes me suspect institutional traders are playing a role in driving the market down to get the weak hands to sell, so they can buy back at lower levels....
I've often wondered the same thing. Nobody makes money in a stagnant market and the heavyweights are certainly in a position where they can influence a rise or fall. I'm just hoping the fund managers for the Vanguard funds I have are players on the field rather than observers in the stadium and are snatching up the good deals right now.
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Old 01-16-2016, 01:07 PM   #66
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Actually, I think the institutional traders drove the markets way up with the "Fed put" of QE and low rates. Now that the party is over, some of the hot air is coming out of the balloon. Oil price crash helped spur this on, as has China representing slowing global growth. To me the current action just says the US equity markets got way ahead of themselves.
+1. Totally agree with you, Audrey. Everyone is talking about China and oil as the cause for this, but in my view they merely acted as catalysts.......the real driving force behind this drop is that the markets got way ahead of themselves because of the actions of the FED these last 7-8 years.
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Old 01-16-2016, 01:19 PM   #67
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Institutional traders are just as likely to be caught leaning the wrong way. When they get out of their bad positions, it often causes a lot of market turmoil.
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Old 01-16-2016, 01:56 PM   #68
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... To me the current action just says the US equity markets got way ahead of themselves.
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+1. Totally agree with you, Audrey. Everyone is talking about China and oil as the cause for this, but in my view they merely acted as catalysts.......the real driving force behind this drop is that the markets got way ahead of themselves because of the actions of the FED these last 7-8 years.
So, are we now agreeing with Shiller when he said the US market was (is still?) overvalued?
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Old 01-16-2016, 02:02 PM   #69
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So, are we now agreeing with Shiller when he said the US market was (is still?) overvalued?
He probably thinks it's way more overvalued than I do. He probably thinks early 2009 levels were fairly valued, but all of the recovery was overvalued, just like the entire period from 1990.
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Old 01-16-2016, 02:05 PM   #70
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But early 2009 was at the bottom of the market. Besides, Shiller was either selling stocks or buying put options as he hinted in an interview I shared a month or two ago. So, he must have held stock or bought since 2009 to have something to sell.

PS. It is true that the market is always overvalued at the top of the market, and undervalued at the bottom of the market. The problem is if one tries to talk about it, the ardent followers of the EMH will cry out "dirty market timing". They sneer at anyone who even expresses an opinion on market valuation. It's a religion, and the act of talking about P/E is considered blasphemy. And recently, when even Bogle said that the future market return will be subdued (which has nothing to do with market timing), they even revolted and called him names.
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Old 01-16-2016, 02:45 PM   #71
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So, are we now agreeing with Shiller when he said the US market was (is still?) overvalued?
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He probably thinks it's way more overvalued than I do. He probably thinks early 2009 levels were fairly valued, but all of the recovery was overvalued, just like the entire period from 1990.
GMO uses Shiller PE in it's valuation methodology, their projections show US markets still richly valued but international developed with some potential for real growth and EM with lots of upside - if you can stomach the volatility.
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Old 01-16-2016, 02:50 PM   #72
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Institutional traders are just as likely to be caught leaning the wrong way. When they get out of their bad positions, it often causes a lot of market turmoil.
Alls I am saying is that despite the oil glut and China, Institutional Investors are contributing to the volatility and wild swings and are taking advantage at everyone elses expense, but certainly are not the main cause for the balloon getting filled and deflated.
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Old 01-16-2016, 02:51 PM   #73
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Alls I am saying is that despite the oil glut and China, Institutional Investors are contributing to the volatility and wild swings and are taking advantage at everyone elses expense, but certainly are not the main cause for the balloon getting filled and deflated.
I think they are the main cause for the balloon getting filled and deflated.
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Old 01-16-2016, 02:55 PM   #74
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GMO uses Shiller PE in it's valuation methodology, their projections show US markets still richly valued but international developed with some potential for real growth and EM with lots of upside - if you can stomach the volatility.
I had plenty of international and EM stocks. That was one of the contributors to my portfolio underperforming the S&P in 2014 and 2015. I lightened up quite a bit a few months ago, and they still dropped worse than the S&P. I am watching to rebuy the same at a lower price.
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Old 01-16-2016, 03:19 PM   #75
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I had plenty of international and EM stocks. That was one of the contributors to my portfolio underperforming the S&P in 2014 and 2015. I lightened up quite a bit a few months ago, and they still dropped worse than the S&P. I am watching to rebuy the same at a lower price.
Same here. I'm beefing up nonetheless, thought that will probably lead to more underperformance in 2016.
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Old 01-16-2016, 03:26 PM   #76
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He probably thinks it's way more overvalued than I do. He probably thinks early 2009 levels were fairly valued, but all of the recovery was overvalued, just like the entire period from 1990.

Last time I read him he thought it should be somewhere in the 1300s I think.


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Old 01-16-2016, 03:42 PM   #77
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I watched Willie Nelson get his Gershwin award last night on local PBS here before Charlie Rose opened with a segment on the stock market with three 'experts'.

I like Willie.

And the part where my Target Retirement 'computers' automatically re-balance on the way down and up without my watching, making any decisions, or saying anything.

heh heh heh - 1966-2006 before full auto - hindsight says I should have spent more time listening to Willie instead of all that stock stuff.
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Old 01-16-2016, 07:11 PM   #78
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Same here. I'm beefing up nonetheless, thought that will probably lead to more underperformance in 2016.
Underperforming the S&P in a bullish year means making less than the market.

The above is nowhere as bad as underperforming in a bad year, and losing even more money than the S&P. That would hurt like the Dickens.

PS. By the way, Vanguard's EM ETF, VWO, has a P/E of 12 and a yield of 3.24%. In contrast, the S&P has a P/E of 17 and a yield of 2.06%.
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Old 01-16-2016, 08:08 PM   #79
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I just saw another doomsday prediction "Dow is going to fall by 80%". All these big institutions are probably paying writers/analyst to come out with predictions that everyone should get out, or suffer. These big guys have to make some money, and they probably got out early and wants to buy. Apple has low institutional holdings and I see tons of negative publicity about Apple. These guys want to buy at a cheap price and shaking up the weak hands.
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Old 01-16-2016, 08:18 PM   #80
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If you don't time it at it's lowest, if you think the market is going to rebound, you'll stiill be that much ahead when it does.
Are you saying you can time the market at the lowest level ? Good luck with that.
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