Royal Bank of Scotland Says "Sell Everything"

[bmcgonig]

Royal Bank of Scotland Says "Sell Everything"

He probably thinks it's way more overvalued than I do. He probably thinks early 2009 levels were fairly valued, but all of the recovery was overvalued, just like the entire period from 1990.

Last time I read him he thought it should be somewhere in the 1300s I think.


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[unclemick]

I watched Willie Nelson get his Gershwin award last night on local PBS here before Charlie Rose opened with a segment on the stock market with three 'experts'.

I like Willie.

And the part where my Target Retirement 'computers' automatically re-balance on the way down and up without my watching, making any decisions, or saying anything.

heh heh heh - 1966-2006 before full auto - hindsight says I should have spent more time listening to Willie instead of all that stock stuff.

 

[NW-Bound]

Same here. I'm beefing up nonetheless, thought that will probably lead to more underperformance in 2016.

Underperforming the S&P in a bullish year means making less than the market.

The above is nowhere as bad as underperforming in a bad year, and losing even more money than the S&P. That would hurt like the Dickens.

PS. By the way, Vanguard's EM ETF, VWO, has a P/E of 12 and a yield of 3.24%. In contrast, the S&P has a P/E of 17 and a yield of 2.06%.

 

[cyber888]

I just saw another doomsday prediction "Dow is going to fall by 80%". All these big institutions are probably paying writers/analyst to come out with predictions that everyone should get out, or suffer. These big guys have to make some money, and they probably got out early and wants to buy. Apple has low institutional holdings and I see tons of negative publicity about Apple. These guys want to buy at a cheap price and shaking up the weak hands.

 

[cyber888]

If you don't time it at it's lowest, if you think the market is going to rebound, you'll stiill be that much ahead when it does.

Are you saying you can time the market at the lowest level ? Good luck with that.

 

[Options]

Timely post from Dirk Cotton on the subject:

The Retirement Café: What I Do When the Market Tumbles

Specifically:

If you have such a high allocation to equities that market declines make you anxious, you own too much stock. Find the allocation at which severe bear market losses won’t keep you up at night.

Emphasis added.

and

To be completely honest, I wasn’t aware that the market had fallen 8% so far in January until my wife told me late this week. I don't watch business news – life is too short...I don’t labor over my portfolio value daily. I probably check it four times a year, at most. I retired to enjoy the remainder of my life, not to fret over the stock market.

Emphasis added. I wasn't aware the market had fallen 8% either, nor do I care. I reduced my SWAN PF AA to 40/60 last year for this very reason.

Also see the other links in his post for advice from other authors on market turmoil.

 

[HFWR]

And recently, when even Bogle said that the future market return will be subdued (which has nothing to do with market timing), they even revolted and called him names.

And he couldn't join in any reindeer games...